Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB MXN 6.94, price MXN 5.35, upside +29.7%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.64 MXN – 5.35 MXN · fair‑value band 4.98 MXN – 9.02 MXN · the 5.35 MXN price screens below the 6.94 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe, S.A.B. de C.V. acquires, develops, and operates beach and urban hotels in Mexico. It operates in three segments: Urban Services, Resort Services, and Operator and Holding.
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Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe, S.A.B. de C.V. acquires, develops, and operates beach and urban hotels in Mexico. It operates in three segments: Urban Services, Resort Services, and Operator and Holding. The company operates a portfolio of 27 hotels under the Krystal Grand, Krystal Hotels & Resorts, Krystal Beach, and Krystal Urban brands, as well as under licensed brands, such as Hilton, Hilton Resorts, Hilton Garden Inn, and Hampton Inn & Suites. It also operates third-party hotels. Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL) currently trades at 5.35 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6.94 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 22.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 11.60 MXN per share, and 14 of the 25 models we run sit above the 5.35 MXN price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 1.26 MXN, and 11 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 4.98 MXN (bear) to 9.02 MXN (bull), the price of 5.35 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB reported revenue of 3.4B MXN in FY2025 versus 1.8B MXN in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was 200M MXN in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 3.8B MXN (≈ $218M) · P/E ratio 21.4 · P/S ratio 1.26 · EPS (TTM) 0.2500 MXN · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% · Operating margin 19.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 30%, HOTEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4.98 MXNFair Value 6.94 MXNBull 9.02 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1836 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.4% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−5.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−21% → 16%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.5% a year for the price and +0.5% for the forecasts.
Compare Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 169 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+30% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Above median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)19% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.39× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOTEL
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 6.94 MXN versus a price of 5.35 MXN, about +30% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HOTEL?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB is 6.94 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 5.35 MXN.
What is the quality score of HOTEL?
Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 6.94 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.98 MXN, optimistic scenario 9.02 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 6.94 MXN, about +30% upside versus a price of 5.35 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 4.98 MXN, optimistic scenario 9.02 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB would have to grow free cash flow by -0.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HOTEL use?
Our models discount Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB that is -0.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB grew +26.0 % a year. The price currently implies -0.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (-0.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.57 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB it is 6.94 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 5.35 MXN. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HOTEL trades below its calculated fair value: price 5.35 MXN, fair value 6.94 MXN, a gap of about +30% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOTEL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (5.35 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (6.94 MXN). For Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB the two are 1.59 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB worth?
The market values Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB at about 3.8B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 5.35 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 6.94 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOTEL?
Our models span a range for Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB: cautious scenario 4.98 MXN, base 6.94 MXN, optimistic 9.02 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 5.35 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HOTEL?
Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 6.94 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOTEL from its 52-week high?
Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB trades at 5.35 MXN, at its 52-week high of 5.35 MXN and 70% above the low of 3.14 MXN (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 6.94 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 5.35 MXN, calculated fair value 6.94 MXN (+30%), Quality Score 59/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOTEL calculated?
We run Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 6.94 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB currently trades 30 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 5.35 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 6.94 MXN, about +30% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB right now?
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (4.98 MXN to 9.02 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB is 3.8B MXN (≈ $218M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB is 1.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB are 0.2500 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
The net margin of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB is 5.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB is 3.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
The operating margin of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB is 19.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
Revenue at Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB is growing −5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB are growing −18.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB (HOTEL) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe SAB is 1.8B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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