Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe, S.A. (HOTEL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · MX · Market cap 3.2B MXN
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +13.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 32% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (4.86 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 2.64 MXN – 4.78 MXN · fair‑value band 4.86 MXN – 7.73 MXN · the 4.68 MXN price screens below the 6.19 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe, S.A. (HOTEL) currently trades at 4.68 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 6.19 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 32.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe, S.A. generated revenue of 3.3B MXN at a net margin of 5.3%. Revenue declined 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at 1.8B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 4.86 MXN (bear case) to 7.73 MXN (bull case); at 4.68 MXN, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at 32%, HOTEL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (12.53 MXN) versus Dividend Discount (1.72 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe, S.A.B. de C.V. acquires, develops, and operates beach and urban hotels in Mexico. It operates in three segments: Urban Services, Resort Services, and Operator and Holding.
Full company description
Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe, S.A.B. de C.V. acquires, develops, and operates beach and urban hotels in Mexico. It operates in three segments: Urban Services, Resort Services, and Operator and Holding. The company operates a portfolio of 27 hotels under the Krystal Grand, Krystal Hotels & Resorts, Krystal Beach, and Krystal Urban brands, as well as under licensed brands, such as Hilton, Hilton Resorts, Hilton Garden Inn, and Hampton Inn & Suites. It also operates third-party hotels. Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grupo Hotelero Santa Fe, S.A. reported revenue of 3.4B MXN in FY2025 versus 1.8B MXN in FY2021, a compound +17.8%/yr. Reported net income was 200M MXN in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Lodging · 168 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $369.05 | $135.64 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $328.48 | $123.67 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $159.87 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $191.00 | $47.69 | -75% |
| H World Group HTHT | $42.67 | $47.55 | +11% |
| Accor SA AC | €47.25 | €39.26 | -17% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹743.20 | ₹260.68 | -65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $78.54 | $24.02 | -69% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 113,500 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -67% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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