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Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 9, 2026: fair value of Heavy Rare Earths Limited A$0.02, price A$0.04, upside -32.0%, quality 25 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026
Heavy Rare Earths Limited
HRE · AUWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
Fair value A$0.0238 · Overvalued (−32.0%)
Quality 25/100
Weak Growth (revenue YoY −71.3 %/yr in AUD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/6)
Narrow moat 5/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
50‑month range A$0.0190 – A$0.2600 · the A$0.0350 price screens above the A$0.0238 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Company profile
Heavy Rare Earths Limited engages in the exploration and development of uranium projects in Western Australia and South Australia. It explores for uranium, rare earth, and scandium deposits. Heavy Rare Earths Limited was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE) currently trades at A$0.0350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0238, 32.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 87/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Heavy Rare Earths Limited reported revenue of A$89.7K in FY2025 versus A$28.3K in FY2023, a compound +78.1%/yr. Reported net income was −A$3.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$10.1M (≈ $7.0M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0200 · Return on equity −147% · Return on assets (EBIT) −99.9% · Operating margin −1,376% · Revenue (TTM) A$53.2K · Revenue growth (YoY) −60.0% · Free cash flow −A$1.4M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 84% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −32%, HRE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
n/a
n/a
A$0.0100
48
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
n/a
n/a
A$0.0100
48
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
25/100
Of which business quality 25 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Profitability
2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
23
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
HRE screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with Cameco Corporation →
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Uranium · 25 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Uranium median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Valuation of the Australia market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Uranium stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNNC International Limited 2302 | HK$3.25 | HK$9.65 | +197% | vs HRE |
| enCore Energy Corp EU | C$1.45 | C$1.12 | −23% | vs HRE |
| CGN Mining Company 1164 | HK$2.12 | HK$1.38 | −35% | vs HRE |
| Atha Energy Corp SASK | C$0.9900 | C$0.4100 | −59% | vs HRE |
| Uranium Royalty Corp UROY | $3.97 | $1.62 | −59% | vs HRE |
| Centrus Energy Corp LEU | $139.27 | $55.95 | −60% | vs HRE |
| Boss Energy Limited BOE | A$1.54 | A$0.6000 | −61% | vs HRE |
| Deep Yellow Limited DYL | A$1.17 | A$0.4300 | −63% | vs HRE |
| Berkeley Energia Limited BKY | €0.3465 | €0.1000 | −71% | vs HRE |
| Cameco Corporation CCJ | $85.18 | $10.06 | −88% | vs HRE |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0238 versus a price of A$0.0350, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HRE?
Our model-based fair value for Heavy Rare Earths Limited is A$0.0238 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0350.
What is the quality score of HRE?
Heavy Rare Earths Limited has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0238 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heavy Rare Earths Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0238, about −32% upside versus a price of A$0.0350 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE)?
Heavy Rare Earths Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$53.2K (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heavy Rare Earths Limited it is A$0.0238 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of A$0.0350. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heavy Rare Earths Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, HRE trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0350, fair value A$0.0238, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HRE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0350); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0238). For Heavy Rare Earths Limited the two are A$0.0112 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heavy Rare Earths Limited worth?
The market values Heavy Rare Earths Limited at about A$10.1M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0350; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0238 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heavy Rare Earths Limited (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity −147.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HRE from its 52-week high?
Heavy Rare Earths Limited trades at A$0.0350, about 48% below its 52-week high of A$0.0670 and 84% above the low of A$0.0190 (as of Oct 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0238 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heavy Rare Earths Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Cameco Corporation, Centrus Energy Corp, CGN Mining Company, Uranium Royalty Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heavy Rare Earths Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price A$0.0350, calculated fair value A$0.0238 (−32%), Quality Score 25/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HRE calculated?
We run Heavy Rare Earths Limited through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0238, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Heavy Rare Earths Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE)?
The closing price on Oct 9, 2026 was A$0.0350. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0238, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heavy Rare Earths Limited right now?
Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Heavy Rare Earths Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE)?
The market capitalisation of Heavy Rare Earths Limited is A$10.1M (≈ $7.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE)?
Earnings per share at Heavy Rare Earths Limited are A$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heavy Rare Earths Limited is −147% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heavy Rare Earths Limited is −99.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE)?
The operating margin of Heavy Rare Earths Limited is −1,376% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE)?
Revenue at Heavy Rare Earths Limited is growing −60.0% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE) generate?
The free cash flow of Heavy Rare Earths Limited is −A$1.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Heavy Rare Earths Limited (HRE) hold?
Heavy Rare Earths Limited holds more cash than debt, A$1.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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