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Hesai Group (HSAI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Hesai Group $6.44, price $16.31, upside -60.5%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · ADR · ISIN US4280501085

HG Hesai Group logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Hesai Group

HSAI · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $6.44 · Strongly overvalued (−61%)
!Quality 34/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +48.8 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 14.8% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Narrow moat 35/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 29 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$29.80 $3.55 Fair Value $6.44 Feb 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

43‑month range $3.55 – $29.80 · fair‑value band $6.43 – $6.44 · the $16.31 price screens above the $6.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally.

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Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally. The company provides gas sensor products, validation services, solution service, and other services, as well as designs and develops engineering products. Its LiDAR products are used in passenger and commercial vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems; autonomous vehicle fleets providing passenger and freight mobility services; and other applications, such as last-mile delivery robots, street sweeping robots, and logistics robots in restricted areas. Hesai Group was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

Hesai Group Sponsored ADR (HSAI) currently trades at $16.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.44, implying the stock looks roughly 153.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $46.15 per share, and 17 of the 17 models we run sit above the $16.31 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $18.18, and 0 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $6.43 (bear) to $6.44 (bull), the price of $16.31 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Hesai Group Sponsored ADR reported revenue of 3.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 721M CNY in FY2021, a compound +43.2%/yr. Reported net income was 436M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.7B · P/E ratio 35.9 · P/S ratio 5.17 · EPS (TTM) $0.4700 · Dividend yield 11.0% · Net margin 14.4% · Return on equity 7.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −61%, HSAI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $6.43 Fair Value $6.44 Bull $6.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3438 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $17.16 $18.18 $19.06 74
Residual Income $52.24 $52.92 $49.93 74
Owner Earnings $41.77 $79.59 $156.07 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $41.77 $79.59 $156.07 70
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $22.77 $158.83 $222.89 61
Lynch FV $82.06 $117.22 $152.39 59
PEG = 1.0 $82.06 $117.22 $152.39 55
EPV $17.16 $18.18 $19.06 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $19.75 $39.36 $59.60 64
DDM Multi-Stage $19.75 $34.02 $41.55 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $55.26 $73.68 $92.10 63
P/S Multiple $20.94 $27.92 $34.90 58
P/B Multiple $42.70 $56.94 $71.17 55
EV/EBIT $23.49 $27.77 $32.04 66
EV/EBITDA $27.78 $33.48 $39.19 67
EV/Revenue $19.32 $23.02 $26.72 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $34.44 $46.15 $68.88 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $52.24 $52.92 $49.93 74
ROIC Compounder $17.16 $18.18 $19.06 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $108.92 $155.61 $202.29 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 71
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 6
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 28
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 14
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+45.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−24.5% (2020) → 4.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

HSAI screens 153% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 695 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 34 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −61% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 30% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 11.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 35.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.98× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 5.59× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.59× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 19
PAST (return on equity)29 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹2,004 ₹407.35 −80%
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Hesai Group Sponsored ADR · Fair Value
$6.44 −153%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hesai Group Sponsored ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HSAI

Frequently asked questions

Is Hesai Group (HSAI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.44 versus a price of $16.31, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HSAI?
Our model-based fair value for Hesai Group Sponsored ADR is $6.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.31.
What is the quality score of HSAI?
Hesai Group Sponsored ADR has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.43, optimistic scenario $6.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hesai Group Sponsored ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.44, about −61% upside versus a price of $16.31 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.43, optimistic scenario $6.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Hesai Group Sponsored ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hesai Group Sponsored ADR pay a dividend?
Hesai Group Sponsored ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.03% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hesai Group Sponsored ADR it is $6.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $16.31. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hesai Group Sponsored ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HSAI trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.31, fair value $6.44, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HSAI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.44). For Hesai Group Sponsored ADR the two are $9.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hesai Group Sponsored ADR worth?
The market values Hesai Group Sponsored ADR at about $2.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $16.31; our models calculate a fair value of $6.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HSAI?
Our models span a range for Hesai Group Sponsored ADR: cautious scenario $6.43, base $6.44, optimistic $6.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $16.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HSAI?
Hesai Group Sponsored ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.9 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 2.0, P/S 5.6.
What is the PEG ratio of HSAI?
The PEG ratio of Hesai Group Sponsored ADR is 0.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hesai Group Sponsored ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.2%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HSAI from its 52-week high?
Hesai Group Sponsored ADR trades at $16.31, about 45% below its 52-week high of $29.58 and 12% above the low of $14.60 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hesai Group Sponsored ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hesai Group Sponsored ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $16.31, calculated fair value $6.44 (−61%), Quality Score 34/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HSAI calculated?
We run Hesai Group Sponsored ADR through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Hesai Group Sponsored ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $16.31. Our model-based fair value is $6.44, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hesai Group Sponsored ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The models converge in a tight band ($6.43 to $6.44), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.

Key figures of Hesai Group Sponsored ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The market capitalisation of Hesai Group Sponsored ADR is $2.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hesai Group Sponsored ADR is 5.17 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Earnings per share at Hesai Group Sponsored ADR are $0.4700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The dividend yield of Hesai Group Sponsored ADR is 11.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The net margin of Hesai Group Sponsored ADR is 14.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hesai Group Sponsored ADR is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hesai Group Sponsored ADR is −5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The operating margin of Hesai Group Sponsored ADR is −1.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Revenue at Hesai Group Sponsored ADR is growing +29.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Earnings per share at Hesai Group Sponsored ADR are growing −13.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hesai Group (HSAI) generate?
The free cash flow of Hesai Group Sponsored ADR is −187M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hesai Group (HSAI) hold?
Hesai Group Sponsored ADR holds more cash than debt, 705M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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