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Hesai Group (HSAI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 11, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hesai Group stock $2.87, price $14.66, that is 80.4% below the price, quality 32 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 14 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical US · ADR · Based in China

HG Hesai Group logo Some data Nov 12, 2026

Hesai Group

HSAI · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 80% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 14.9% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Upbeat coverage
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +22%, profit +25%.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +48.8 %/yr in CNY)
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Some data
Changed on Nov 12: $0.4505 → $2.87
Fair value $2.87 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 32/100
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 39/100 · thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$29.80 $3.55 Fair Value $2.87 Feb 2023 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

45‑month range $3.55 – $29.80 · fair‑value band $2.29 – $3.54 · the $14.66 price screens above the $2.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.

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Company profile

Hesai Group, through with its subsidiaries, engages in the development, manufacturing, and sale of three-dimensional light detection and ranging solutions (LiDAR) in Mainland China, Europe, North America, and internationally.

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The company provides gas sensor products, validation services, solution service, and other services, as well as designs and develops engineering products.

Its LiDAR products are used in passenger and commercial vehicles with advanced driver assistance systems; autonomous vehicle fleets providing passenger and freight mobility services; and other applications, such as last-mile delivery robots, street sweeping robots, and logistics robots in restricted areas.

Hesai Group was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.

Stock analysis

Hesai Group (HSAI) currently trades at $14.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.87, 80% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $18.61 per share, and 3 of the 14 models we run sit above the $14.66 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.36, and 11 of the 14 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $2.29 (bear) to $3.54 (bull), the price of $14.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Hesai Group Sponsored ADR reported revenue of 3.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 721M CNY in FY2021, a compound +43.2%/yr. Reported net income was 436M CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.4B Mid · P/E ratio 30.6 · P/S ratio 4.41 · EPS (TTM) $0.4700 · Net margin 14.4% · Return on equity 7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 0.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −80%, HSAI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.29 Fair Value $2.87 Bull $3.54
Price $14.66 · Downside -80.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4069 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV $1.97 $2.06 $2.14 72
ROIC Compounder $1.97 $2.06 $2.14 69
Residual Income $5.93 $5.85 $6.07 67
All 14 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.72 $18.99 $26.66 58
Lynch FV $9.81 $14.02 $18.22 57
PEG = 1.0 $9.81 $14.02 $18.22 53
EPV $1.97 $2.06 $2.14 72
Multiples
P/E Multiple $6.61 $8.81 $11.02 61
P/S Multiple $2.50 $3.34 $4.17 56
P/B Multiple $24.45 $32.60 $40.75 53
EV/EBIT $2.18 $2.69 $3.20 65
EV/EBITDA $2.69 $3.38 $4.06 66
EV/Revenue $1.68 $2.12 $2.57 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.89 $4.38 $5.48 53
Economic Profit
Residual Income $5.93 $5.85 $6.07 67
ROIC Compounder $1.97 $2.06 $2.14 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $13.03 $18.61 $24.19 64

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 32
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 71
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 62
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 28
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 13
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 7
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 8
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+45.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−24.5% (2020) → 4.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

HSAI screens overvalued: fair value 80% below the price. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 671 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −80.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 7.5% · Above median
Return on assets 3.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 14.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 21.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.03× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 30.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.78× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 4.78× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.51× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 34
PAST (return on equity)30 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Magna International Inc MGA $62.68 $98.08 +56% vs HSAI
Hyundai Mobis Co 012330 354,500 KRW 534,994 KRW +51% vs HSAI
Genuine Parts Company GPC $123.75 $115.96 −6% vs HSAI
AutoZone, Inc AZO $3,238 $2,468 −24% vs HSAI
Fuyao Glass Industry Group 600660 ¥55.75 ¥40.74 −27% vs HSAI
Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥51.25 ¥32.24 −37% vs HSAI
Samvardhana Motherson International Limited MOTHERSON ₹169.69 ₹96.06 −43% vs HSAI
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc ORLY $90.54 $48.66 −46% vs HSAI
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹50,490 ₹25,168 −50% vs HSAI
Uno Minda Limited UNOMINDA ₹1,373 ₹431.19 −69% vs HSAI

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Hesai Group Sponsored ADR: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hesai Group Sponsored ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HSAI

Frequently asked questions

Is Hesai Group (HSAI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.87 versus a price of $14.66, about 80% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HSAI?
Our model-based fair value for Hesai Group is $2.87 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.66.
What is the quality score of HSAI?
Hesai Group has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.87 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.29, optimistic scenario $3.54. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hesai Group Sponsored ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.87, about 80% lower versus a price of $14.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.29, optimistic scenario $3.54. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Hesai Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Hesai Group Sponsored ADR pay a dividend?
Hesai Group does not currently pay a dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hesai Group it is $2.87 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of $14.66. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Hesai Group Sponsored ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, HSAI trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.66, fair value $2.87, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HSAI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.87). For Hesai Group the two are $11.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hesai Group Sponsored ADR worth?
The market values Hesai Group at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is $14.66; our models calculate a fair value of $2.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HSAI?
Our models span a range for Hesai Group: cautious scenario $2.29, base $2.87, optimistic $3.54 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price $14.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HSAI?
Hesai Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.6 (as of Nov 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.87 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.5, P/B 1.8, P/S 4.8.
What is the PEG ratio of HSAI?
The PEG ratio of Hesai Group is 0.51 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hesai Group (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity 7.5%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HSAI from its 52-week high?
Hesai Group trades at $14.66, about 49% below its 52-week high of $28.79 and 21% above the low of $12.07 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hesai Group Sponsored ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hesai Group Sponsored ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price $14.66, calculated fair value $2.87 (−80%), Quality Score 32/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HSAI calculated?
We run Hesai Group through 14 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.87 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Hesai Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The closing price on Nov 11, 2026 was $14.66. Our model-based fair value is $2.87, about 80% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hesai Group Sponsored ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (32/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Key figures of Hesai Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The market capitalisation of Hesai Group is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hesai Group is 4.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Earnings per share at Hesai Group are $0.4700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The net margin of Hesai Group is 14.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hesai Group is 7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hesai Group is −5.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hesai Group (HSAI)?
The operating margin of Hesai Group is 0.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Revenue at Hesai Group is growing +21.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +36.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hesai Group (HSAI)?
Earnings per share at Hesai Group are growing +25.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hesai Group (HSAI) generate?
The free cash flow of Hesai Group is −187M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Hesai Group (HSAI) hold?
Hesai Group holds more cash than debt, 705M CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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