Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Hargreaves Services Plc £10.09, price £8.24, upside +22.5%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £2.60 – £8.70 · fair‑value band £7.57 – £12.61 · the £8.24 price screens below the £10.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hargreaves Services Plc provides environmental and industrial services in the United Kingdom, Europe, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through Services, Hargreaves Land, and Hargreaves Raw Materials Services segments.
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Hargreaves Services Plc provides environmental and industrial services in the United Kingdom, Europe, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through Services, Hargreaves Land, and Hargreaves Raw Materials Services segments. The company offers environmental services, such as carbon sequestration and forestry creation, land remediation, land restoration and aftercare, geotechnical assessment, environmental site survey, energy-from-waste, and waste management services; materials handling operation and maintenance, mechanical and electrical maintenance, and project engineering services; and earthmoving services. It also provides the logistics services and mining and quarrying services. In addition, the company develops brownfield site for residential and commercial purposes; and engages in the trading of industrial raw materials, such as solid fuels, refractory minerals, and pig iron, as well as ferro-alloys and metals. Hargreaves Services Plc was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Durham, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP) currently trades at £8.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £10.09, implying the stock looks roughly 18.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £10.63 per share, and 6 of the 12 models we run sit above the £8.24 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £3.28, and 6 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £7.57 (bear) to £12.61 (bull), the price of £8.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Hargreaves Services Plc reported revenue of £264M in FY2025 versus £205M in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was £14.8M in FY2025, compounding −2.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 276M GBX · P/E ratio 12.7 · P/S ratio 0.71 · EPS (TTM) £0.6500 · Dividend yield 4.6% · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 22%, HSP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £7.57Fair Value £10.09Bull £12.61
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.2700 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.65/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+25.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −8.8% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs −7%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 13.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.7% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+20% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth46% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.6% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
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Is Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £10.09 versus a price of £8.24, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HSP?
Our model-based fair value for Hargreaves Services Plc is £10.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £8.24.
What is the quality score of HSP?
Hargreaves Services Plc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £10.09 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario £7.57, optimistic scenario £12.61. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hargreaves Services Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £10.09, about +22% upside versus a price of £8.24 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £7.57, optimistic scenario £12.61. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
Hargreaves Services Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £322M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hargreaves Services Plc pay a dividend?
Hargreaves Services Plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hargreaves Services Plc would have to grow free cash flow by +0.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.5 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HSP use?
Our models discount Hargreaves Services Plc at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hargreaves Services Plc that is +0.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hargreaves Services Plc grew +3.5 % a year. The price currently implies +0.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hargreaves Services Plc (+0.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.37 %: that much free cash flow Hargreaves Services Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hargreaves Services Plc it is £10.09 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £8.24. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hargreaves Services Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HSP trades below its calculated fair value: price £8.24, fair value £10.09, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HSP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£8.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£10.09). For Hargreaves Services Plc the two are £1.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hargreaves Services Plc worth?
The market values Hargreaves Services Plc at about 276M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £8.24; our models calculate a fair value of £10.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HSP?
Our models span a range for Hargreaves Services Plc: cautious scenario £7.57, base £10.09, optimistic £12.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £8.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HSP?
Hargreaves Services Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £10.09 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 13.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hargreaves Services Plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HSP from its 52-week high?
Hargreaves Services Plc trades at £8.24, about 5% below its 52-week high of £8.70 and 37% above the low of £6.00 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £10.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hargreaves Services Plc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hargreaves Services Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £8.24, calculated fair value £10.09 (+22%), Quality Score 67/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HSP calculated?
We run Hargreaves Services Plc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £10.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Hargreaves Services Plc currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £8.24. Our model-based fair value is £10.09, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hargreaves Services Plc right now?
Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP) come from?
Earnings per share at Hargreaves Services Plc grew −4.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −11.9 %, EBIT margin −0.9 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hargreaves Services Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
The market capitalisation of Hargreaves Services Plc is 276M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hargreaves Services Plc is 0.71 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
Earnings per share at Hargreaves Services Plc are £0.6500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
The dividend yield of Hargreaves Services Plc is 4.6% (payout 58.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
The net margin of Hargreaves Services Plc is 5.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hargreaves Services Plc is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hargreaves Services Plc is 2.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
The operating margin of Hargreaves Services Plc is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
Revenue at Hargreaves Services Plc is growing +46.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP)?
Earnings per share at Hargreaves Services Plc are growing +174% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hargreaves Services Plc (HSP) carry?
The net debt of Hargreaves Services Plc is 9.5M GBX (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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