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Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Heliostar Metals Ltd $0.28, price $1.65, upside -83.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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HM
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Heliostar Metals Ltd
HSTXF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $0.2800 · Strongly overvalued (−83.0%)
!Quality 58/100
!Weak Growth
✓Highly profitable · 41.8% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 83/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1350 – $2.45 · fair‑value band $0.2500 – $0.3100 · the $1.65 price screens above the $0.2800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Heliostar Metals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in gold and silver exploration and mining activities in the United States and Mexico. Its flagship property is the 100%-owned Ana Paula gold project, which covers an area of 56,334 hectares located in the state of Guerrero, Mexico. The company was formerly known as Redstar Gold Corp.
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Heliostar Metals Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in gold and silver exploration and mining activities in the United States and Mexico. Its flagship property is the 100%-owned Ana Paula gold project, which covers an area of 56,334 hectares located in the state of Guerrero, Mexico. The company was formerly known as Redstar Gold Corp. and changed its name to Heliostar Metals Ltd. in October 2020. Heliostar Metals Ltd. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF) currently trades at $1.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2800, 83.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $1.10 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $1.65 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $0.1000, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.2500 (bear) to $0.3100 (bull), the price of $1.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Heliostar Metals Ltd reported revenue of $36.6M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was $21.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $403M · P/S ratio 2.33 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1300 · Net margin 57.5% · Return on equity 73.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −46.6% · Operating margin 38.3% · Revenue growth (YoY) +139%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −83%, HSTXF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.1000 to $1.36). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.2500
Fair Value $0.2800
Bull $0.3100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.3200
$0.4100
$0.5200
69
EPV
$0.1000
$0.1000
$0.1000
68
Growth DCF
$0.3200
$0.4000
$0.4900
67
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.3200
$0.4100
$0.5200
69
Owner Earnings
$0.8700
$1.16
$1.54
65
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.1900
$0.2000
$0.2100
62
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.2100
$0.2400
$0.2700
64
5Y P/E Exit
$0.6900
$1.10
$1.52
59
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.2400
$0.2600
$0.2800
57
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.2600
$0.2900
$0.3200
58
10Y P/E Exit
$0.5300
$0.8300
$1.17
53
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.5100
$1.36
$1.78
51
Lynch FV
$0.2600
$0.3800
$0.4900
48
PEG = 1.0
$0.2600
$0.3800
$0.4900
45
EPV
$0.1000
$0.1000
$0.1000
68
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.9600
$1.28
$1.60
63
P/S Multiple
$0.1500
$0.2000
$0.2500
58
P/B Multiple
$0.5000
$0.6600
$0.8300
55
EV/EBIT
$0.1000
$0.1000
$0.1000
63
EV/EBITDA
$0.1400
$0.1600
$0.1700
64
EV/Revenue
$0.1000
$0.1000
$0.1000
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.1100
$0.1500
$0.2200
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.3200
$0.4000
$0.4900
67
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.1900
$0.2000
$0.2200
62
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.3700
$0.4500
$0.7000
59
ROIC Compounder
$0.1000
$0.1000
$0.1000
61
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.7700
$1.10
$1.43
59
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Profitability
69
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
54
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
19
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
49
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
29/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed
Growth Forecast
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.0% a year for the price.
HSTXF screens overvalued: fair value 83% below the price. Compare with Newmont Corporation →
Compare Heliostar Metals Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 232 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newmont Corporation NEM | $115.34 | $126.87 | +10% |
| Zijin Mining Group 601899 | ¥30.01 | ¥44.45 | +48% |
| Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM | $185.83 | $219.71 | +18% |
| Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM | $135.39 | $87.78 | −35% |
| Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV | $245.81 | $270.39 | +10% |
| AngloGold Ashanti plc AU | $99.03 | $88.60 | −11% |
| Kinross Gold Corporation KGC | $24.06 | $51.30 | +113% |
| Royal Gold, Inc RGLD | $238.93 | $262.82 | +10% |
| Shandong Gold Mining Co 600547 | ¥29.07 | ¥23.61 | −19% |
| Pan American Silver Corp PAAS | $46.14 | $59.13 | +28% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2800 versus a price of $1.65, about −83% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HSTXF?
Our model-based fair value for Heliostar Metals Ltd is $0.2800 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.65.
What is the quality score of HSTXF?
Heliostar Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2800 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.2500, optimistic scenario $0.3100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heliostar Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2800, about −83% upside versus a price of $1.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2500, optimistic scenario $0.3100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Heliostar Metals Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +41.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HSTXF use?
Our models discount Heliostar Metals Ltd at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.32, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Heliostar Metals Ltd that is +41.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How fast is the sector of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Heliostar Metals Ltd (+41.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.31 %: that much free cash flow Heliostar Metals Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heliostar Metals Ltd it is $0.2800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.65. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heliostar Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HSTXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.65, fair value $0.2800, a gap of about −83% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HSTXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2800). For Heliostar Metals Ltd the two are $1.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heliostar Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Heliostar Metals Ltd at about $403M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.65; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HSTXF?
Our models span a range for Heliostar Metals Ltd: cautious scenario $0.2500, base $0.2800, optimistic $0.3100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heliostar Metals Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 73.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HSTXF from its 52-week high?
Heliostar Metals Ltd trades at $1.65, about 33% below its 52-week high of $2.45 and 50% above the low of $1.10 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heliostar Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Newmont Corporation, Zijin Mining Group, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Wheaton Precious Metals Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heliostar Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.65, calculated fair value $0.2800 (−83%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HSTXF calculated?
We run Heliostar Metals Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Heliostar Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.65. Our model-based fair value is $0.2800, about −83% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heliostar Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.3100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Heliostar Metals Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
The market capitalisation of Heliostar Metals Ltd is $403M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heliostar Metals Ltd is 2.33 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
Earnings per share at Heliostar Metals Ltd are $−0.1300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
The net margin of Heliostar Metals Ltd is 57.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heliostar Metals Ltd is 73.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heliostar Metals Ltd is −46.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
The operating margin of Heliostar Metals Ltd is 38.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
Revenue at Heliostar Metals Ltd is growing +139% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heliostar Metals Ltd (HSTXF)?
Earnings per share at Heliostar Metals Ltd are growing −89.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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