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Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Heartland Express Inc stock $16.14, price $10.09, upside +60.0%, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials US

HE Heartland Express Inc logo Thin data Nov 6, 2026

Heartland Express Inc

HTLD · US
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 38% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $16.14 · Strongly undervalued
Low debt
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 15% above the price ($11.59).
Quality 42/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.5 %/yr in USD)
0.8% dividend yield · Token dividend
Insiders bought $31,380 (6M) · sold $492,069
Loss-making · -1.8% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/13)
Narrow moat 14/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$17.20 $7.03 Fair Value $16.14 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.03 – $17.20 · fair‑value band $11.59 – $20.69 · the $10.09 price screens below the $16.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.

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Company profile

Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides short, medium, and long-haul truckload carrier and transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

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It primarily provides nationwide asset-based dry van truckload services for shippers; cross-border freight and other transportation services; and temperature-controlled truckload services.

The company offers its services under the Heartland Express, Millis Transfer, Smith Transport, and CFI brand names. It primarily serves retailers, manufacturers, and parcel carriers in the consumer goods, appliances, food products, and automotive industries.

The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa.

Stock analysis

Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) currently trades at $10.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.14, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $11.59 (bear) to $20.69 (bull), the price of $10.09 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2002: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2002.

Heartland Express Inc reported revenue of $806M in FY2025 versus $607M in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$52.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $781M Small · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1600 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin −1.8% · Return on equity −1.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −3.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 14 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at 60%, HTLD screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.59 Fair Value $16.14 Bull $20.69
Price $10.09 · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDA $10.42 $14.51 $18.60 67
NCAV (Graham) $2.35 $3.15 $4.70 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $10.42 $14.51 $18.60 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.35 $3.15 $4.70 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 12
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 16
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 15
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 70
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 68
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 40
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 41
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 51
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 89
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $31,380, on Jun 10, 2026. Over the same period, one person sold shares worth $492,069.

  • SaleDavid Paul MillisDirector31,402 shares at $15.67$492,069Jun 15, 2026
  • BuyDavid P SpaldingDirector2,000 shares at $15.69$31,380Jun 10, 2026

Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2002: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2002.
Revenue growth 1 year
−23.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.5% (2020) → −7.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 44 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Below median
Fair Value upside +60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −4.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −1.8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −3.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −8.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.20× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.03× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 1.09× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.8× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.68× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 13
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)16 · sector 35

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX $58.41 $93.46 +60% vs HTLD
TFI International Inc TFII $94.94 $112.09 +18% vs HTLD
Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL $164.92 $174.14 +6% vs HTLD
Mullen Group MTL C$28.74 C$19.85 −31% vs HTLD
Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN $26.95 $16.48 −39% vs HTLD
Schneider National, Inc SNDR $27.81 $16.20 −42% vs HTLD
Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 ¥3.98 ¥1.96 −51% vs HTLD
ArcBest Corporation ARCB $127.91 $52.83 −59% vs HTLD
XPO, Inc XPO $176.95 $71.58 −60% vs HTLD
Saia, Inc SAIA $331.90 $126.27 −62% vs HTLD

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Heartland Express Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Heartland Express Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HTLD

Frequently asked questions

Is Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.14 versus a price of $10.09, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HTLD?
Our model-based fair value for Heartland Express Inc is $16.14 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.09.
What is the quality score of HTLD?
Heartland Express Inc has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.14 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.59, optimistic scenario $20.69. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heartland Express Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.14, about +60% upside versus a price of $10.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.59, optimistic scenario $20.69. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Heartland Express Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $719M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Heartland Express Inc pay a dividend?
Heartland Express Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.79% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Heartland Express Inc pays a dividend of $0.08 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.8%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 25, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2003. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.8% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.8% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heartland Express Inc it is $16.14 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $10.09. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Heartland Express Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, HTLD trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.09, fair value $16.14, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HTLD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.14). For Heartland Express Inc the two are $6.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heartland Express Inc worth?
The market values Heartland Express Inc at about $781M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $10.09; our models calculate a fair value of $16.14 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HTLD?
Our models span a range for Heartland Express Inc: cautious scenario $11.59, base $16.14, optimistic $20.69 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $10.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HTLD?
The PEG ratio of Heartland Express Inc is 1.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heartland Express Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −1.7%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HTLD from its 52-week high?
Heartland Express Inc trades at $10.09, about 38% below its 52-week high of $16.17 and 44% above the low of $7.03 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.14 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heartland Express Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, Saia, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heartland Express Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $10.09, calculated fair value $16.14 (+60%), Quality Score 42/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HTLD calculated?
We run Heartland Express Inc through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $16.14 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Heartland Express Inc currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $10.09. Our model-based fair value is $16.14, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heartland Express Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (42/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.59). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Heartland Express Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The market capitalisation of Heartland Express Inc is $781M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heartland Express Inc is 1.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Earnings per share at Heartland Express Inc are $−0.1600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The dividend yield of Heartland Express Inc is 0.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The net margin of Heartland Express Inc is −1.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heartland Express Inc is −1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heartland Express Inc is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The operating margin of Heartland Express Inc is −3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Revenue at Heartland Express Inc is growing −8.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Earnings per share at Heartland Express Inc are growing −66.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) generate?
The free cash flow of Heartland Express Inc is −$66.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) carry?
The net debt of Heartland Express Inc is $143M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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