Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Heartland Express Inc $18.93, price $11.68, upside +62.1%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.05 – $17.26 · fair‑value band $13.60 – $24.27 · the $11.68 price screens below the $18.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides short, medium, and long-haul truckload carrier and transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
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Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides short, medium, and long-haul truckload carrier and transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It primarily provides nationwide asset-based dry van truckload services for shippers; cross-border freight and other transportation services; and temperature-controlled truckload services. The company offers its services under the Heartland Express, Millis Transfer, Smith Transport, and CFI brand names. It primarily serves retailers, manufacturers, and parcel carriers in the consumer goods, appliances, food products, and automotive industries. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa.
Stock analysis
Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) currently trades at $11.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.93, implying the stock looks roughly 38.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $13.60 (bear) to $24.27 (bull), the price of $11.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Heartland Express Inc reported revenue of $806M in FY2025 versus $607M in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$52.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B · P/S ratio 1.47 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5500 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin −6.5% · Return on equity −5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9% · Operating margin −6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at 62%, HTLD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.60Fair Value $18.93Bull $24.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.10/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−23.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.9% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.5% (2020) → −7.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Trucking · 47 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+62% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−20% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
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Is Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.93 versus a price of $11.68, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HTLD?
Our model-based fair value for Heartland Express Inc is $18.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.68.
What is the quality score of HTLD?
Heartland Express Inc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.60, optimistic scenario $24.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Heartland Express Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.93, about +62% upside versus a price of $11.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $13.60, optimistic scenario $24.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Heartland Express Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $763M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Heartland Express Inc pay a dividend?
Heartland Express Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Heartland Express Inc it is $18.93 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $11.68. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Heartland Express Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HTLD trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.68, fair value $18.93, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HTLD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.93). For Heartland Express Inc the two are $7.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Heartland Express Inc worth?
The market values Heartland Express Inc at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $11.68; our models calculate a fair value of $18.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HTLD?
Our models span a range for Heartland Express Inc: cautious scenario $13.60, base $18.93, optimistic $24.27 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $11.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HTLD?
The PEG ratio of Heartland Express Inc is 1.68 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Heartland Express Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.6%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HTLD from its 52-week high?
Heartland Express Inc trades at $11.68, about 28% below its 52-week high of $16.22 and 66% above the low of $7.05 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Heartland Express Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc, XPO, Inc, TFI International Inc, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Heartland Express Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $11.68, calculated fair value $18.93 (+62%), Quality Score 41/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HTLD calculated?
We run Heartland Express Inc through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Heartland Express Inc currently trades 62 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $11.68. Our model-based fair value is $18.93, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Heartland Express Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.60). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Heartland Express Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The market capitalisation of Heartland Express Inc is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Heartland Express Inc is 1.47 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Earnings per share at Heartland Express Inc are $−0.5500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The dividend yield of Heartland Express Inc is 0.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The net margin of Heartland Express Inc is −6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Heartland Express Inc is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Heartland Express Inc is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
The operating margin of Heartland Express Inc is −6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Revenue at Heartland Express Inc is growing −19.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Heartland Express Inc (HTLD)?
Earnings per share at Heartland Express Inc are growing −66.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) generate?
The free cash flow of Heartland Express Inc is −$66.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Heartland Express Inc (HTLD) carry?
The net debt of Heartland Express Inc is $143M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026