Heartland Express, Inc (HTLD) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $1.1B
Heartland Express, Inc
HTLD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 24, 2026, revised from $14.48 to $19.74 (+36.4%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −17.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (41/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($14.18). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.05 – $18.06 · fair‑value band $14.18 – $25.32 · the $12.34 price screens below the $19.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Heartland Express, Inc (HTLD) currently trades at $12.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.74, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Heartland Express, Inc generated revenue of $763M at a net margin of -5.7%. Revenue declined 19.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -5.6%. Net debt stands at $143M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.18 (bear case) to $25.32 (bull case); at $12.34, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -70% fair-value upside, at 60%, HTLD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($14.58) versus Asset-Based ($6.53). Highest evidence: EV/EBITDA (54).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides short, medium, and long-haul truckload carrier and transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.
Full company description
Heartland Express, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides short, medium, and long-haul truckload carrier and transportation services in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. It primarily provides nationwide asset-based dry van truckload services for shippers; cross-border freight and other transportation services; and temperature-controlled truckload services. The company offers its services under the Heartland Express, Millis Transfer, Smith Transport, and CFI brand names. It primarily serves retailers, manufacturers, and parcel carriers in the consumer goods, appliances, food products, and automotive industries. The company was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in North Liberty, Iowa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Heartland Express, Inc reported revenue of $806M in FY2025 versus $607M in FY2021, a compound +7.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$52.5M in FY2025.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Gains from equipment sales save Heartland’s Q2
- Heartland Express GAAP EPS of $0.14 beats by $0.15, revenue of $184.13M misses by $7.33M
Peer Group
Trucking · 47 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Trucking median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Trucking stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc ODFL | $225.23 | $103.37 | -54% |
| XPO, Inc XPO | $219.29 | $56.52 | -74% |
| TFI International Inc TFII | $155.83 | $110.79 | -29% |
| Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings KNX | $75.19 | $8.58 | -89% |
| Saia, Inc SAIA | $438.29 | $129.64 | -70% |
| Schneider National, Inc SNDR | $38.19 | $12.37 | -68% |
| RXO, Inc RXO | $27.07 | $3.48 | -87% |
| ArcBest Corporation ARCB | $147.13 | $45.89 | -69% |
| Werner Enterprises, Inc WERN | $46.04 | $8.24 | -82% |
| Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co 600611 | ¥4.55 | ¥1.20 | -74% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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