H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of H2O Retailing Corporation $17.15, price $10.00, upside +71.5%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range $9.32 – $10.00 · fair‑value band $10.05 – $25.46 · the $10.00 price screens below the $17.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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H2O Retailing Corporation engages in the development, operation, and management of commercial facilities in Japan. It operates through Department Store Business, Food Segment, Commercial Facility Business, and Others segments. The Department Store Business segment operates department stores selling clothing, personal items, household goods, and food.
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H2O Retailing Corporation engages in the development, operation, and management of commercial facilities in Japan. It operates through Department Store Business, Food Segment, Commercial Facility Business, and Others segments. The Department Store Business segment operates department stores selling clothing, personal items, household goods, and food. The Food Business segment is involved in food supermarkets and food manufacturing. The Commercial Facility segment engages in commercial property rental management, building management, and other businesses. The Other Businesses segment is involved in convenience store management, beauty select shop management, interior construction, and information processing services. The company also manufactures daily dishes, packed lunches, breads, dry foods, and other food items sold in supermarkets and department stores; hotel management; and costume rentals. In addition, it provides individual food delivery services; maintenance, cleaning and security services for stores; uniforms and corporate uniforms; convenience stores and station kiosks; and pet supplies and pet grooming services. The company was formerly known as Hankyu Department Stores, Inc. and changed its name to H2O Retailing Corporation in October 2007. H2O Retailing Corporation was founded in 1929 and is headquartered in Osaka, Japan.
Stock analysis
H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF) currently trades at $10.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.15, implying the stock looks roughly 41.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $32.09 per share, and 20 of the 22 models we run sit above the $10.00 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $6.57, and 2 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.05 (bear) to $25.46 (bull), the price of $10.00 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
H2O Retailing Corporation reported revenue of ¥682B in FY2025 versus ¥739B in FY2021, a compound −2.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥34.8B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B · P/E ratio 8.3 · P/S ratio 0.42 · EPS (TTM) $1.21 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 5.1% · Return on equity 9.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 72%, HTOCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.05Fair Value $17.15Bull $25.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+53.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+51.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 5%
2025 sits 103% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.1% a year for the price.
Compare H2O Retailing Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 79 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+72% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.35× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
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Is H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.15 versus a price of $10.00, about +72% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HTOCF?
Our model-based fair value for H2O Retailing Corporation is $17.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.00.
What is the quality score of HTOCF?
H2O Retailing Corporation has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.05, optimistic scenario $25.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the H2O Retailing Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $17.15, about +72% upside versus a price of $10.00 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.05, optimistic scenario $25.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
H2O Retailing Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥680B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does H2O Retailing Corporation pay a dividend?
H2O Retailing Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, H2O Retailing Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +12.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HTOCF use?
Our models discount H2O Retailing Corporation at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For H2O Retailing Corporation that is +12.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at H2O Retailing Corporation grew -5.4 % a year. The price currently implies +12.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into H2O Retailing Corporation (+12.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.90 %: that much free cash flow H2O Retailing Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For H2O Retailing Corporation it is $17.15 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $10.00. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is H2O Retailing Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HTOCF trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.00, fair value $17.15, a gap of about +72% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HTOCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.15). For H2O Retailing Corporation the two are $7.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is H2O Retailing Corporation worth?
The market values H2O Retailing Corporation at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $10.00; our models calculate a fair value of $17.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HTOCF?
Our models span a range for H2O Retailing Corporation: cautious scenario $10.05, base $17.15, optimistic $25.46 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $10.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HTOCF?
H2O Retailing Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for H2O Retailing Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.7%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HTOCF from its 52-week high?
H2O Retailing Corporation trades at $10.00, at its 52-week high of $10.00 and 4% above the low of $9.57 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to H2O Retailing Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is H2O Retailing Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $10.00, calculated fair value $17.15 (+72%), Quality Score 51/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HTOCF calculated?
We run H2O Retailing Corporation through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. H2O Retailing Corporation currently trades 72 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $10.00. Our model-based fair value is $17.15, about +72% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with H2O Retailing Corporation right now?
Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($10.05 to $25.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of H2O Retailing Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
The market capitalisation of H2O Retailing Corporation is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of H2O Retailing Corporation is 0.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
Earnings per share at H2O Retailing Corporation are $1.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
The dividend yield of H2O Retailing Corporation is 2.6% (payout 21.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
The net margin of H2O Retailing Corporation is 5.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of H2O Retailing Corporation is 9.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of H2O Retailing Corporation is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
The operating margin of H2O Retailing Corporation is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
Revenue at H2O Retailing Corporation is growing −1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF)?
Earnings per share at H2O Retailing Corporation are growing +402% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does H2O Retailing Corporation (HTOCF) carry?
The net debt of H2O Retailing Corporation is ¥99.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026