ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft €7.64, price €7.20, upside +6.1%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.13 – €16.47 · fair‑value band €5.70 – €11.41 · the €7.20 price screens below the €7.64 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe operates as a transport company in Germany. The company operates city bus and light rail line network. It also provides sprintRad, an application for rental bikes; and bicycle transport services. The company was incorporated in 1892 and is based in Hanover, Germany.
Stock analysis
ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB) currently trades at €7.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.64, implying the stock looks roughly 5.8% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: €5.70 (bear) to €11.41 (bull), the price of €7.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft reported revenue of €196M in FY2025 versus €169M in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€93.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €190M · P/S ratio 0.90 · EPS (TTM) €−3.55 · Net margin −47.7% · Return on equity −32.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −11.7% · Operating margin −38.8% · Revenue (TTM) €196M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 35 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at 6%, HVB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €5.70Fair Value €7.64Bull €11.41
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.15/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−26.6% (2020) → −48.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Railroads · 114 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−10% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−48% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−39% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth29% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
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Is ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.64 versus a price of €7.20, about +6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HVB?
Our model-based fair value for ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft is €7.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €7.20.
What is the quality score of HVB?
ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €7.64 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario €5.70, optimistic scenario €11.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €7.64, about +6% upside versus a price of €7.20 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €5.70, optimistic scenario €11.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €196M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft it is €7.64 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €7.20. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HVB trades below its calculated fair value: price €7.20, fair value €7.64, a gap of about +6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HVB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€7.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€7.64). For ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft the two are €0.4400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft worth?
The market values ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft at about €190M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €7.20; our models calculate a fair value of €7.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HVB?
Our models span a range for ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft: cautious scenario €5.70, base €7.64, optimistic €11.41 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €7.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
Balance-sheet figures for ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −32.2%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HVB from its 52-week high?
ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft trades at €7.20, about 28% below its 52-week high of €9.93 and 17% above the low of €6.16 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €7.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Union Pacific Corporation, CSX Corporation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited, Norfolk Southern Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €7.20, calculated fair value €7.64 (+6%), Quality Score 38/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HVB calculated?
We run ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €7.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft currently trades 6 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was €7.20. Our model-based fair value is €7.64, about +6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€5.70 to €11.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft
How large is the market capitalisation of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
The market capitalisation of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft is €190M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft is 0.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
Earnings per share at ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft are €−3.55. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
The net margin of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft is −47.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft is −32.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft is −11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
The operating margin of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft is −38.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB)?
Revenue at ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft is growing +28.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB) generate?
The free cash flow of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft is −€65.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft (HVB) carry?
The net debt of ÜSTRA Hannoversche Verkehrsbetriebe Aktiengesellschaft is €101M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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