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The Heavitree Brewery PLC (HVTA) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 12.4M GBX

TH The Heavitree Brewery PLC HVTA · LSE
Price£2.25
Fair Value£4.74
Upside+110.7%
Quality56/100
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Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 24.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.93% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Moderate moat 57/100
Evidence: High Range £3.84 – £6.88 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from £4.58 to £4.74 (+3.5%) since Jul 5, 2026.

A solid business, screening 111% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (£3.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£2.25 £0.5509 Fair Value £4.74 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.5509 – £2.25 · fair‑value band £3.84 – £6.88 · the £2.25 price screens below the £4.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

The Heavitree Brewery PLC (HVTA) currently trades at £2.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £4.74, implying the stock looks roughly 110.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, The Heavitree Brewery PLC generated revenue of £7.6M at a net margin of 34.4%. Revenue grew 0.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £2.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £3.84 (bear case) to £6.88 (bull case); at £2.25, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at 111%, HVTA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £1.66 £1.95 £2.41 80
Residual Income £5.48 £6.20 £10.07 76
Rev-Margin DCF £1.97 £2.75 £3.73 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £1.63 £1.94 £2.47 38
Owner Earnings £5.03 £6.15 £8.07 31
5Y Revenue Exit £1.97 £2.72 £3.84 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £3.01 £4.50 £6.51 41
5Y P/E Exit £7.33 £11.89 £17.39 38
10Y Revenue Exit £1.76 £2.28 £2.86 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £2.34 £3.25 £4.27 37
10Y P/E Exit £4.60 £7.29 £9.99 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £5.78 £8.31 £9.77 54
EPV £2.62 £2.89 £3.11 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £0.7200 £0.7900 £0.8700 70
DDM Multi-Stage £0.7200 £0.8600 £1.02 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £14.02 £18.69 £23.37 63
P/S Multiple £2.22 £2.97 £3.71 58
P/B Multiple £10.83 £14.44 £18.06 55
EV/EBIT £6.37 £8.38 £10.39 53
EV/EBITDA £4.87 £6.37 £7.88 54
EV/Revenue £2.43 £3.32 £4.21 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £3.20 £4.29 £6.40 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £1.66 £1.95 £2.41 80
Rev-Margin DCF £1.97 £2.75 £3.73 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income £5.48 £6.20 £10.07 76
ROIC Compounder £2.62 £2.89 £3.11 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £9.88 £14.12 £18.35 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (£14.12) versus Dividend Discount (£0.7900). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 7.6M GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) -1.5%
Net margin 24.4%
Return on equity 9.7%
Free cash flow 539K GBX FY2025
P/E ratio 5.9
More key figures
Operating margin 14.5%
EPS (TTM) £0.3800
Dividend yield 2.9%
EPS growth (YoY) -67.8%
Net cash 2.3M GBX FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 56/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 88

Profitability 51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 29
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 60
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 86
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 88
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

The Heavitree Brewery PLC develops and operates leased and tenanted estate in England. The company operates leased and tenanted pub and public houses. The Heavitree Brewery PLC was founded in 1790 and is based in Exeter, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

The Heavitree Brewery PLC reported revenue of £7.6M in FY2025 versus £4.6M in FY2021, a compound +13.4%/yr. Reported net income was £2.6M in FY2025, compounding +34.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£7.6M
Latest YoY
+1.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.7%
Avg. growth/yr (40Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.2%
Revenue +13.4%/yr
FY21 £4.6M
FY22 £7.3M
FY23 £7.3M
FY24 £7.5M
FY25 £7.6M
Net income +34.5%/yr
FY21 £801K
FY22 £2.0M
FY23 £1.5M
FY24 £1.3M
FY25 £2.6M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +4.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.7 pp

of which total revenue +0.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.1 pp

EBIT margin −2.4 pp
Tax rate +0.4 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +6.0 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Heavitree Brewery PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HVTA

Peer Group

Restaurants · 227 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside +111% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 24% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.9% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.06× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.84× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.20× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 30.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 6.6× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 28
FUTURE 0 · sector 20
PAST 39 · sector 16
HEALTH 97 · sector 97
DIVIDEND 59 · sector 58

Insider activity: 35/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
McDonald's Corporation MCDS C$24.01 C$10.84 -55%
Starbucks Corporation SBUX $105.49 $35.83 -66%
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG $34.63 $18.43 -47%
Yum! Brands, Inc YUM $163.54 $59.66 -64%
Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR C$104.19 C$36.37 -65%
Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI $195.74 $173.68 -11%
Yum China Holdings YUMC $43.90 $55.10 +26%
Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH $197.03 $104.89 -47%
Dutch Bros Inc BROS $68.36 $12.80 -81%
Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ $322.18 $231.96 -28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is The Heavitree Brewery PLC (HVTA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £4.74 versus a price of £2.25, about +111% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HVTA?
Our model-based fair value for The Heavitree Brewery PLC is £4.74 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £2.25.
What is the quality score of HVTA?
The Heavitree Brewery PLC has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of The Heavitree Brewery PLC (HVTA)?
The Heavitree Brewery PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £7.6M (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HVTA?
The net profit margin of The Heavitree Brewery PLC is about 34.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 34.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does The Heavitree Brewery PLC pay a dividend?
The Heavitree Brewery PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.22% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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