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ORIX Corporation (I1XC34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ORIX Corporation BRL 15.30, price BRL 24.14, upside -36.6%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · BR · ISIN JP3200450009

OC Some data Oct 3, 2026

ORIX Corporation

I1XC34 · SA

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value R$15.30 · Strongly overvalued (−36.6%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −6.6 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!2.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers (7/10)
!Moderate moat 56/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$25.92 R$8.50 Fair Value R$15.30 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$8.50 – R$25.92 · fair‑value band R$14.11 – R$15.30 · the R$24.14 price screens above the R$15.30 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

ORIX Corporation provides financial services in Japan, the United States, Asia, Europe, and Australasia. The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance and fee; and leasing and rental of automobiles, electronic measuring instruments, and ICT-related equipment businesses.

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ORIX Corporation provides financial services in Japan, the United States, Asia, Europe, and Australasia. The company's Corporate Financial Services and Maintenance Leasing segment is involved in the finance and fee; and leasing and rental of automobiles, electronic measuring instruments, and ICT-related equipment businesses. Its Real Estate segment develops, rents, and manages real estate properties; operates facilities; provides real estate asset management services. The company's PE Investment and Concession segment engages in the private equity investment and concession businesses. Its Environment and Energy segment provides ESCO, and recycling and waste management services; retails electric power; sells solar panels; and generates renewable energy power. The company's Insurance segment sells life insurance products through agents, banks, and other financial institutions, as well as face-to-face and online. Its Banking and Credit segment provides banking and consumer finance services. The company's Aircraft and Ships segment engages in the aircraft investment and management, ship-related finance and investment, maritime asset management, and ship brokerage businesses. Its ORIX USA segment offers finance, investment, and asset management services. The company's ORIX Europe segment provides asset management services for equity and fixed income. Its Asia and Australia segment engages in the finance and investment businesses. The company was formerly known as Orient Leasing Co., Ltd. and changed its name to ORIX Corporation in 1989. ORIX Corporation was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

ORIX Corporation (I1XC34) currently trades at R$24.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$15.30, 36.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$22.01 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the R$24.14 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$6.50, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: R$14.11 (bear) to R$15.30 (bull), the price of R$24.14 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

ORIX Corporation reported revenue of ¥2.2T in FY2026 versus ¥1.6T in FY2022, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥447B in FY2026, compounding +9.0%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap R$220B (≈ $42.1B) · P/E ratio 15.1 · P/S ratio 3.11 · EPS (TTM) R$1.60 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 20.6% · Return on equity 10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −37%, I1XC34 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$14.11 Fair Value R$15.30 Bull R$15.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$0.5476 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income R$15.08 R$16.65 R$19.66 73
Gordon GGM R$5.94 R$6.50 R$7.35 67
Rev-Margin DCF n/a n/a R$2.90 66
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
5Y P/E Exit n/a R$0.3900 >R$1.56 65
10Y P/E Exit n/a n/a R$0.5600 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$11.51 R$14.07 R$15.83 65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$5.94 R$6.50 R$7.35 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$5.94 R$7.45 R$9.57 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$16.51 R$22.01 R$27.52 63
P/B Multiple R$17.82 R$23.76 R$29.70 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$8.48 R$11.37 R$16.97 54
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF n/a n/a R$2.90 66
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$15.08 R$16.65 R$19.66 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 23
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 44
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 65
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 25/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−24.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+57.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +54.0% a year for the price and +10.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+57.0%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+4.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.0%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.7%
Projected 2031 (sales)+3.4%

I1XC34 screens overvalued: fair value 37% below the price. Compare with Yuanta Financial Holding →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Conglomerates · 53 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +77.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 10.4% · Above median
Return on assets 2.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 13.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 22.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 28.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.33× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 15.1× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 73
PAST (return on equity)42 · sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)33 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)44 · sector 56

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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CNPC Capital Company 000617 ¥6.67 ¥7.03 +5%
Aditya Birla Capital Limited ABCAPITAL ₹390.00 ₹226.72 −42%
Freedom Holding FRHC $169.98 $23.80 −86%
Voya Financial, Inc VOYA $97.27 $46.47 −52%
Guangzhou Yuexiu Capital Holdings 000987 ¥7.26 ¥5.63 −22%
Bicecorp S.A BICE 422.70 CLP 261.70 CLP −38%

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ORIX Corporation · Fair Value
R$15.30 −37%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ORIX Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/I1XC34

Frequently asked questions

Is ORIX Corporation (I1XC34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$15.30 versus a price of R$24.14, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of I1XC34?
Our model-based fair value for ORIX Corporation is R$15.30 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$24.14.
What is the quality score of I1XC34?
ORIX Corporation has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$15.30 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$14.11, optimistic scenario R$15.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ORIX Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$15.30, about −37% upside versus a price of R$24.14 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$14.11, optimistic scenario R$15.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
ORIX Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥3.3T (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does ORIX Corporation pay a dividend?
ORIX Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.18% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ORIX Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +57.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +8.5 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of I1XC34 use?
Our models discount ORIX Corporation at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ORIX Corporation that is +57.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ORIX Corporation (I1XC34) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at ORIX Corporation grew +8.5 % a year. The price currently implies +57.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ORIX Corporation (+57.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.65 %: that much free cash flow ORIX Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ORIX Corporation it is R$15.30 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$24.14. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ORIX Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, I1XC34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$24.14, fair value R$15.30, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of I1XC34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$24.14); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$15.30). For ORIX Corporation the two are R$8.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ORIX Corporation worth?
The market values ORIX Corporation at about R$220B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$24.14; our models calculate a fair value of R$15.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about I1XC34?
Our models span a range for ORIX Corporation: cautious scenario R$14.11, base R$15.30, optimistic R$15.30 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$24.14). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of I1XC34?
ORIX Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.1 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$15.30 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
Balance-sheet figures for ORIX Corporation (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 10.4%, debt of 1.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is I1XC34 from its 52-week high?
ORIX Corporation trades at R$24.14, about 7% below its 52-week high of R$25.92 and 49% above the low of R$16.18 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$15.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ORIX Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Yuanta Financial Holding, Bajaj Finserv Ltd, China Galaxy Securities Co, Guosen Securities Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ORIX Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$24.14, calculated fair value R$15.30 (−37%), Quality Score 51/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of I1XC34 calculated?
We run ORIX Corporation through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$15.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ORIX Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$24.14. Our model-based fair value is R$15.30, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ORIX Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$15.30). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band (R$14.11 to R$15.30), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of ORIX Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
The market capitalisation of ORIX Corporation is R$220B (≈ $42.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ORIX Corporation is 3.11 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
Earnings per share at ORIX Corporation are R$1.60 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
The dividend yield of ORIX Corporation is 2.2% (payout 32.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
The net margin of ORIX Corporation is 20.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ORIX Corporation is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ORIX Corporation is 2.1% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
The operating margin of ORIX Corporation is 22.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
Revenue at ORIX Corporation is growing +28.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ORIX Corporation (I1XC34)?
Earnings per share at ORIX Corporation are growing −25.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ORIX Corporation (I1XC34) carry?
The net debt of ORIX Corporation is ¥5.2T (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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