Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ibotta, Inc. $5.45, price $41.21, upside -86.8%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $5.45 · Strongly overvalued (−87%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 3y +17.6 %/yr)
!Loss over the last twelve months · -2.2% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 1.0%
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(0/11)
!Narrow moat16/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range $19.25 – $109.90 · fair‑value band $5.42 – $5.48 · the $41.21 price screens above the $5.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Ibotta, Inc., a technology company, provides digital promotion services to clients in the United States. The company sources digital promotions from its clients primarily consumer packaged goods brands and distributes these promotions to consumers through its network of publishers enabled by Ibotta Performance Network (IPN), a technology platform.
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Ibotta, Inc., a technology company, provides digital promotion services to clients in the United States. The company sources digital promotions from its clients primarily consumer packaged goods brands and distributes these promotions to consumers through its network of publishers enabled by Ibotta Performance Network (IPN), a technology platform. It offers promotional services through the IPN, including direct-to-consumer mobile, web, and browser extension properties, as well as third-party publisher properties. The company also provides display ads, tiles, sponsored offers, newsletters, and feature placements. In addition, it offers LiveLift, a set of capabilities designed for brands to drive sales. The company serves consumer packaged goods brands. The company was formerly known as Zing Enterprises, Inc. and changed its name to Ibotta, Inc. in 2012. Ibotta, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Stock analysis
Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) currently trades at $41.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.45, implying the stock looks roughly 656.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $31.71 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the $41.21 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.83, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.42 (bear) to $5.48 (bull), the price of $41.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ibotta, Inc. reported revenue of $342M in FY2025 versus $211M in FY2022, a compound +17.6%/yr. Reported net income was $3.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.2B · P/S ratio 2.10 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3300 · Net margin 1.0% · Return on equity −2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% · Operating margin −13.0% · Revenue (TTM) $340M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 114% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −87%, IBTA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.7000 to $52.40). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $5.42Fair Value $5.45Bull $5.48
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−56.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−56.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−19% → 1%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.2% a year for the price and +3.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 710 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−87% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
P/B4.31× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)3.65× · Pricier than median
P/FCF16.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 39
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)89· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 33
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ibotta, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IBTA
Frequently asked questions
Is Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.45 versus a price of $41.21, about −87% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IBTA?
Our model-based fair value for Ibotta, Inc. is $5.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.21.
What is the quality score of IBTA?
Ibotta, Inc. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.45 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.42, optimistic scenario $5.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ibotta, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.45, about −87% upside versus a price of $41.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.42, optimistic scenario $5.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
Ibotta, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $340M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ibotta, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +7.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +17.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IBTA use?
Our models discount Ibotta, Inc. at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ibotta, Inc. that is +7.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Ibotta, Inc. grew +17.6 % a year. The price currently implies +7.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ibotta, Inc. (+7.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.04 %: that much free cash flow Ibotta, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ibotta, Inc. it is $5.45 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $41.21. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ibotta, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, IBTA trades above its calculated fair value: price $41.21, fair value $5.45, a gap of about −87% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IBTA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.45). For Ibotta, Inc. the two are $35.76 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ibotta, Inc. worth?
The market values Ibotta, Inc. at about $1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $41.21; our models calculate a fair value of $5.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IBTA?
Our models span a range for Ibotta, Inc.: cautious scenario $5.42, base $5.45, optimistic $5.48 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $41.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ibotta, Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −2.3%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IBTA from its 52-week high?
Ibotta, Inc. trades at $41.21, about 3% below its 52-week high of $42.40 and 114% above the low of $19.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ibotta, Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Shopify Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, Salesforce, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ibotta, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $41.21, calculated fair value $5.45 (−87%), Quality Score 46/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IBTA calculated?
We run Ibotta, Inc. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.45, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ibotta, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $41.21. Our model-based fair value is $5.45, about −87% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ibotta, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($5.42 to $5.48), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Ibotta, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
The market capitalisation of Ibotta, Inc. is $1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ibotta, Inc. is 2.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
Earnings per share at Ibotta, Inc. are $−0.3300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
The net margin of Ibotta, Inc. is 1.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ibotta, Inc. is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ibotta, Inc. is 0.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
The operating margin of Ibotta, Inc. is −13.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
Revenue at Ibotta, Inc. is growing −2.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA)?
Earnings per share at Ibotta, Inc. are growing −90.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA) hold?
Ibotta, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $161M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026