Itafos Corp (IFOS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Itafos Corp C$6.93, price C$2.31, upside +200.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.9761 – C$4.40 · fair‑value band C$4.57 – C$11.34 · the C$2.31 price screens below the C$6.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Itafos Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells phosphate and specialty fertilizers in the United States, Brazil, and Guinea-Bissau. The company operates through three segments: Conda, Arrais, and Development and Exploration.
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Itafos Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells phosphate and specialty fertilizers in the United States, Brazil, and Guinea-Bissau. The company operates through three segments: Conda, Arrais, and Development and Exploration. It offers monoammonium phosphate, monoammonium phosphate with micronutrients, superphosphoric acid, merchant grade phosphoric acid, ammonium polyphosphate, and hydrofluorosilicic acid. The company also provides single superphosphate, single superphosphate with micronutrients, sulfuric acid, acidulated phosphate rock, and direct application phosphate rock. In addition, it is involved in the operation of high-grade phosphate mine and fertilizer plant projects. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Itafos Corp (IFOS) currently trades at C$2.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$6.93, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$9.18 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$2.31 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at C$0.8300, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$4.57 (bear) to C$11.34 (bull), the price of C$2.31 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Itafos Corp reported revenue of $558M in FY2025 versus $413M in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was $116M in FY2025, compounding +22.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$446M (≈ $316M) · P/E ratio 6.4 · P/S ratio 1.34 · EPS (TTM) C$0.3600 · Net margin 20.8% · Return on equity 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.3% · Operating margin −2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, IFOS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$4.57Fair Value C$6.93Bull C$11.34
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.2643 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
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’18
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 18%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Itafos Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IFOS
Frequently asked questions
Is Itafos Corp (IFOS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$6.93 versus a price of C$2.31, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of IFOS?
Our model-based fair value for Itafos Corp is C$6.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$2.31.
What is the quality score of IFOS?
Itafos Corp has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$6.93 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$4.57, optimistic scenario C$11.34. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Itafos Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$6.93, about +200% upside versus a price of C$2.31 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$4.57, optimistic scenario C$11.34. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
Itafos Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$582M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Itafos Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +25.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IFOS use?
Our models discount Itafos Corp at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Itafos Corp that is +25.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Itafos Corp (IFOS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Itafos Corp grew +16.5 % a year. The price currently implies +25.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Itafos Corp (IFOS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Itafos Corp (+25.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.23 %: that much free cash flow Itafos Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Itafos Corp it is C$6.93 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$2.31. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Itafos Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, IFOS trades below its calculated fair value: price C$2.31, fair value C$6.93, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IFOS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$2.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$6.93). For Itafos Corp the two are C$4.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Itafos Corp worth?
The market values Itafos Corp at about C$446M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$2.31; our models calculate a fair value of C$6.93 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IFOS?
Our models span a range for Itafos Corp: cautious scenario C$4.57, base C$6.93, optimistic C$11.34 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$2.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IFOS?
Itafos Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$6.93 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2, P/B 0.7, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 2.6.
What is the PEG ratio of IFOS?
The PEG ratio of Itafos Corp is 2.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Itafos Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.3%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IFOS from its 52-week high?
Itafos Corp trades at C$2.31, about 48% below its 52-week high of C$4.40 and 6% above the low of C$2.17 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$6.93 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Itafos Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Corteva, Inc, Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Itafos Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$2.31, calculated fair value C$6.93 (+200%), Quality Score 52/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IFOS calculated?
We run Itafos Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$6.93, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Itafos Corp currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was C$2.31. Our model-based fair value is C$6.93, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Itafos Corp right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (C$4.57). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (C$4.57 to C$11.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Itafos Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
The market capitalisation of Itafos Corp is C$446M (≈ $316M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Itafos Corp is 1.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
Earnings per share at Itafos Corp are C$0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
The net margin of Itafos Corp is 20.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Itafos Corp is 12.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Itafos Corp is 16.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
The operating margin of Itafos Corp is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
Revenue at Itafos Corp is growing +13.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Itafos Corp (IFOS)?
Earnings per share at Itafos Corp are growing −95.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Itafos Corp (IFOS) carry?
The net debt of Itafos Corp is C$18.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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