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JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of JAKKS Pacific Inc stock $7.82, price $33.64, that is 76.8% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical US

JP JAKKS Pacific Inc logo Broad data Nov 5, 2026

JAKKS Pacific Inc

JAKK · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 77% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Broad data
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +20%, profit +43%.
Quality 43/100
Thin margins · 4.2% net margin (TTM)
3.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Fair value $7.82 · Strongly overvalued
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −10.5 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (5/14)
Narrow moat 36/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$34.02 $7.21 Fair Value $7.82 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $7.21 – $34.02 · fair‑value band $7.07 – $8.42 · the $33.64 price screens above the $7.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.

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Company profile

JAKKS Pacific, Inc. designs, produces, markets, sells, and distributes toys and related products, consumer and electronic products, kids indoor and outdoor furniture, costumes, and sporting goods and home furnishings space products worldwide.

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The company operates through two segments, Toys/Consumer Products and Costumes.

The company offers action figures and accessories, such as licensed characters; toy vehicles; dolls and accessories, including small, large, fashion, and baby dolls based on licenses, as well as infant and pre-school products; private label products; and foot-to-floor ride-on products.

The company also provides role play, dress-up, pretend play, and novelty products for boys and girls based on brands and entertainment properties, as well as on its own proprietary brands; and indoor and outdoor kids' furniture, activity trays and tables, room décor, and seasonal and outdoor products.

In addition, it offers Halloween and everyday costumes for various ages based on licensed and proprietary non-licensed brands, and related Halloween accessories; outdoor activity toys; junior sports toys, including hyper-charged balls, sport sets, and toy hoops; and board games.

The company sells its products through in-house sales staff and independent sales representatives to toy and mass-market retail chain stores, department stores, office supply stores, drug and grocery store chains, club stores, value-oriented dollar stores, toy specialty stores, and wholesalers.

The company's proprietary brands include Fly Wheels, Perfectly Cute, ReDo Skateboard Co., AirTitans, Sky Ball, JAKKS Wild Games, Xtreme Power Dump Truck, XPV, Moose Mountain, Maui, SportsZone, Charming, KidTopia, Xtreme Power Dozer, and Disguise.

JAKKS Pacific, Inc. was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California.

Stock analysis

JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) currently trades at $33.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.82, 77% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $20.70 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $33.64 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $1.75, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $7.07 (bear) to $8.42 (bull), the price of $33.64 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

JAKKS Pacific Inc reported revenue of $571M in FY2025 versus $621M in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was $9.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $399M Small · P/E ratio 23.9 · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) $1.41 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 4.2% · Return on equity 9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 133% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −77%, JAKK screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $7.07 Fair Value $7.82 Bull $8.42
Price $33.64 · Downside -76.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3516 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings $1.61 $1.75 $1.97 78
Residual Income $14.95 $14.79 $15.02 76
EPV $7.07 $7.82 $8.42 74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $1.61 $1.75 $1.97 78
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $5.86 $7.59 $8.68 67
EPV $7.07 $7.82 $8.42 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $7.01 $7.50 $8.24 69
DDM Multi-Stage $7.01 $8.25 $9.75 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $14.23 $18.97 $23.72 63
P/S Multiple $11.00 $14.66 $18.33 58
P/B Multiple $21.52 $28.69 $35.86 55
EV/EBIT $16.83 $22.42 $28.01 66
EV/EBITDA $19.29 $25.70 $32.11 67
EV/Revenue $11.37 $16.21 $21.06 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.38 $6.64 $8.30 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $14.95 $14.79 $15.02 76
ROIC Compounder $7.07 $7.82 $8.42 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $10.03 $14.33 $18.63 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 50
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 15
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 77
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 65
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 42
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 95
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 99
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 42
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.6% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−46.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−49.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

JAKK screens overvalued: fair value 77% below the price. Compare with Pop Mart International Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 169 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −76.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 9.8% · Above median
Return on assets 2.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 4.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 14.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 20.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.17× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 23.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.60× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 0.64× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 11.5× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.59× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 41
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 27
PAST (return on equity)39 · sector 25
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)59 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Li Ning Company 2331 HK$15.48 HK$29.34 +90% vs JAKK
Ninebot Limited 689009 ¥34.77 ¥52.88 +52% vs JAKK
Pop Mart International Group 9992 HK$141.90 HK$207.44 +46% vs JAKK
Mattel, Inc MAT $15.35 $22.25 +45% vs JAKK
Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT $60.31 $66.34 +10% vs JAKK
Fluidra, S.A FDR €19.32 €21.25 +10% vs JAKK
Amer Sports, Inc AS $31.47 $19.17 −39% vs JAKK
Acushnet Holdings GOLF $80.74 $44.21 −45% vs JAKK
Life Time Group LTH $47.12 $16.00 −66% vs JAKK
Hasbro, Inc HAS $118.91 $32.71 −72% vs JAKK

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JAKKS Pacific Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "JAKKS Pacific Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JAKK

Frequently asked questions

Is JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.82 versus a price of $33.64, about 77% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JAKK?
Our model-based fair value for JAKKS Pacific Inc is $7.82 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.64.
What is the quality score of JAKK?
JAKKS Pacific Inc has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.82 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.07, optimistic scenario $8.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the JAKKS Pacific Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.82, about 77% lower versus a price of $33.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.07, optimistic scenario $8.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
JAKKS Pacific Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $627M (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does JAKKS Pacific Inc pay a dividend?
JAKKS Pacific Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 2.97% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
JAKKS Pacific Inc pays a dividend of $1.00 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The next ex-dividend date is Nov 27, 2026. The payout ratio is 70.9% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For JAKKS Pacific Inc it is $7.82 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $33.64. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is JAKKS Pacific Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, JAKK trades above its calculated fair value: price $33.64, fair value $7.82, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JAKK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.82). For JAKKS Pacific Inc the two are $25.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is JAKKS Pacific Inc worth?
The market values JAKKS Pacific Inc at about $399M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $33.64; our models calculate a fair value of $7.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JAKK?
Our models span a range for JAKKS Pacific Inc: cautious scenario $7.07, base $7.82, optimistic $8.42 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $33.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JAKK?
JAKKS Pacific Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.6, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 11.5.
What is the PEG ratio of JAKK?
The PEG ratio of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 1.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Balance-sheet figures for JAKKS Pacific Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 9.8%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JAKK from its 52-week high?
JAKKS Pacific Inc trades at $33.64, about 1% below its 52-week high of $34.02 and 133% above the low of $14.46 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to JAKKS Pacific Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, Life Time Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is JAKKS Pacific Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $33.64, calculated fair value $7.82 (−77%), Quality Score 43/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JAKK calculated?
We run JAKKS Pacific Inc through 15 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $7.82 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. JAKKS Pacific Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $33.64. Our model-based fair value is $7.82, about 77% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with JAKKS Pacific Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) come from?
Earnings per share at JAKKS Pacific Inc grew −6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −13.8 %, EBIT margin +5.7 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of JAKKS Pacific Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The market capitalisation of JAKKS Pacific Inc is $399M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 0.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Earnings per share at JAKKS Pacific Inc are $1.41 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The dividend yield of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 3.0% (payout 70.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The net margin of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 4.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The operating margin of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Revenue at JAKKS Pacific Inc is growing +20.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Earnings per share at JAKKS Pacific Inc are growing +42.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) generate?
The free cash flow of JAKKS Pacific Inc is −$1.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) hold?
JAKKS Pacific Inc holds more cash than debt, $704K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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