JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of JAKKS Pacific Inc $12.91, price $24.54, upside -47.4%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.21 – $33.90 · fair‑value band $10.03 – $12.91 · the $24.54 price screens above the $12.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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JAKKS Pacific, Inc. designs, produces, markets, sells, and distributes toys and related products, consumer and electronic products, kids indoor and outdoor furniture, costumes, and sporting goods and home furnishings space products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Toys/Consumer Products and Costumes.
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JAKKS Pacific, Inc. designs, produces, markets, sells, and distributes toys and related products, consumer and electronic products, kids indoor and outdoor furniture, costumes, and sporting goods and home furnishings space products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Toys/Consumer Products and Costumes. The company offers action figures and accessories, such as licensed characters; toy vehicles; dolls and accessories, including small, large, fashion, and baby dolls based on licenses, as well as infant and pre-school products; private label products; and foot-to-floor ride-on products. The company also provides role play, dress-up, pretend play, and novelty products for boys and girls based on brands and entertainment properties, as well as on its own proprietary brands; and indoor and outdoor kids' furniture, activity trays and tables, room décor, and seasonal and outdoor products. In addition, it offers Halloween and everyday costumes for various ages based on licensed and proprietary non-licensed brands, and related Halloween accessories; outdoor activity toys; junior sports toys, including hyper-charged balls, sport sets, and toy hoops; and board games. The company sells its products through in-house sales staff and independent sales representatives to toy and mass-market retail chain stores, department stores, office supply stores, drug and grocery store chains, club stores, value-oriented dollar stores, toy specialty stores, and wholesalers. The company's proprietary brands include Fly Wheels, Perfectly Cute, ReDo Skateboard Co., AirTitans, Sky Ball, JAKKS Wild Games, Xtreme Power Dump Truck, XPV, Moose Mountain, Maui, SportsZone, Charming, KidTopia, Xtreme Power Dozer, and Disguise. JAKKS Pacific, Inc. was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California.
Stock analysis
JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) currently trades at $24.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.91, implying the stock looks roughly 90.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $17.24 per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the $24.54 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.59, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.03 (bear) to $12.91 (bull), the price of $24.54 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
JAKKS Pacific Inc reported revenue of $571M in FY2025 versus $621M in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was $9.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $280M · P/E ratio 35.1 · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) $0.7000 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at −47%, JAKK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.03Fair Value $12.91Bull $12.91
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.6% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−38.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−42.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 3%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 11.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 190 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−47% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)35.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.13× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)0.50× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA11.6× · Pricier than median
PEG1.59× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)13· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)81· sector 57
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.91 versus a price of $24.54, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JAKK?
Our model-based fair value for JAKKS Pacific Inc is $12.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.54.
What is the quality score of JAKK?
JAKKS Pacific Inc has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.91 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.03, optimistic scenario $12.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the JAKKS Pacific Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.91, about −47% upside versus a price of $24.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.03, optimistic scenario $12.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
JAKKS Pacific Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $564M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does JAKKS Pacific Inc pay a dividend?
JAKKS Pacific Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.07% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For JAKKS Pacific Inc it is $12.91 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $24.54. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is JAKKS Pacific Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, JAKK trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.54, fair value $12.91, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JAKK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.91). For JAKKS Pacific Inc the two are $11.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is JAKKS Pacific Inc worth?
The market values JAKKS Pacific Inc at about $280M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $24.54; our models calculate a fair value of $12.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JAKK?
Our models span a range for JAKKS Pacific Inc: cautious scenario $10.03, base $12.91, optimistic $12.91 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $24.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JAKK?
JAKKS Pacific Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.91 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.1, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
What is the PEG ratio of JAKK?
The PEG ratio of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 1.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Balance-sheet figures for JAKKS Pacific Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JAKK from its 52-week high?
JAKKS Pacific Inc trades at $24.54, about 8% below its 52-week high of $26.63 and 70% above the low of $14.46 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to JAKKS Pacific Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value ANTA Sports Products Limited, Pop Mart International Group, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is JAKKS Pacific Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $24.54, calculated fair value $12.91 (−47%), Quality Score 42/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JAKK calculated?
We run JAKKS Pacific Inc through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. JAKKS Pacific Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $24.54. Our model-based fair value is $12.91, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with JAKKS Pacific Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) come from?
Earnings per share at JAKKS Pacific Inc grew −6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −13.8 %, EBIT margin +5.7 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of JAKKS Pacific Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The market capitalisation of JAKKS Pacific Inc is $280M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 0.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Earnings per share at JAKKS Pacific Inc are $0.7000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The dividend yield of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 4.1% (payout 143%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The net margin of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of JAKKS Pacific Inc is 10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
The operating margin of JAKKS Pacific Inc is −5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Revenue at JAKKS Pacific Inc is growing −5.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK)?
Earnings per share at JAKKS Pacific Inc are growing −62.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) generate?
The free cash flow of JAKKS Pacific Inc is −$1.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) hold?
JAKKS Pacific Inc holds more cash than debt, $704K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026