JAKKS Pacific, Inc (JAKK) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $253M
JAKKS Pacific, Inc
JAKK · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +16.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.19 – $33.90 · the $25.63 price screens above the $13.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
JAKKS Pacific, Inc (JAKK) currently trades at $25.63, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.05, implying the stock looks roughly 49.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, JAKKS Pacific, Inc generated revenue of $564M at a net margin of 1.4%. Revenue declined 5.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 31.6. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
The share trades near its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -49%, JAKK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($17.24) versus Earnings-Based ($7.59). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
JAKKS Pacific, Inc. designs, produces, markets, sells, and distributes toys and related products, consumer and electronic products, kids indoor and outdoor furniture, costumes, and sporting goods and home furnishings space products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Toys/Consumer Products and Costumes.
Full company description
JAKKS Pacific, Inc. designs, produces, markets, sells, and distributes toys and related products, consumer and electronic products, kids indoor and outdoor furniture, costumes, and sporting goods and home furnishings space products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Toys/Consumer Products and Costumes. The company offers action figures and accessories, such as licensed characters; toy vehicles; dolls and accessories, including small, large, fashion, and baby dolls based on licenses, as well as infant and pre-school products; private label products; and foot-to-floor ride-on products. The company also provides role play, dress-up, pretend play, and novelty products for boys and girls based on brands and entertainment properties, as well as on its own proprietary brands; and indoor and outdoor kids' furniture, activity trays and tables, room décor, and seasonal and outdoor products. In addition, it offers Halloween and everyday costumes for various ages based on licensed and proprietary non-licensed brands, and related Halloween accessories; outdoor activity toys; junior sports toys, including hyper-charged balls, sport sets, and toy hoops; and board games. The company sells its products through in-house sales staff and independent sales representatives to toy and mass-market retail chain stores, department stores, office supply stores, drug and grocery store chains, club stores, value-oriented dollar stores, toy specialty stores, and wholesalers. The company's proprietary brands include Fly Wheels, Perfectly Cute, ReDo Skateboard Co., AirTitans, Sky Ball, JAKKS Wild Games, Xtreme Power Dump Truck, XPV, Moose Mountain, Maui, SportsZone, Charming, KidTopia, Xtreme Power Dozer, and Disguise. JAKKS Pacific, Inc. was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
JAKKS Pacific, Inc reported revenue of $571M in FY2025 versus $621M in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was $9.9M in FY2025.
of which total revenue −1.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −12.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
JAKK screens 49% overvalued. Compare with ANTA Sports Products Limited →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- JAKKS Pacific (JAKK) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Jakks Pacific (JAKK) Q2 Earnings Match Estimates
Peer Group
Leisure · 190 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$74.15 | HK$119.29 | +61% |
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$160.20 | HK$227.30 | +42% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $36.44 | $16.16 | -56% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $81.55 | $83.38 | +2% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $42.15 | $16.15 | -62% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $114.78 | $37.79 | -67% |
| Li Ning Company 2331 | HK$14.80 | HK$29.26 | +98% |
| Benefit Systems S.A BFT | 5,255 PLN | 3,714 PLN | -29% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.82 | ¥39.17 | +4% |
| Asmodee Group ASMDEEB | kr 145.70 | kr 41.90 | -71% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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