Vinyl Group (JAXAF) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $74.2M
Vinyl Group
JAXAF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0298). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0246 – $0.0500 · fair‑value band $0.0255 – $0.0298 · the $0.0500 price screens above the $0.0255 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
Analysis
Vinyl Group (JAXAF) currently trades at $0.0500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0255, implying the stock looks roughly 49.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vinyl Group generated revenue of $18.2M at a net margin of -66.1%. Revenue grew 49.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -64.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.0255 (bear case) to $0.0298 (bull case); at $0.0500, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -49%, JAXAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($0.0200) versus Asset-Based ($0.0100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vinyl Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on delivering technology and media solutions that connect music creators, fans and brands in Australia, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific.
Full company description
Vinyl Group Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, focuses on delivering technology and media solutions that connect music creators, fans and brands in Australia, the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates vinyl.com, an e-commerce platform with music titles; Vampr, a social-professional network and talent marketplace with creators; Serenade, a Web3 pioneer in physical and digital artists collectibles; and Jaxsta, a database of official music credits. It offers Vinyl Media that operates as a media arm and publisher of titles, including Rolling Stone Australia, Variety Australia, Concrete Playground, Mediaweek, Tone Deaf, The Music Network, Refinery29, and TheBrag.com. The company was formerly known as Jaxsta Limited and changed its name to Vinyl Group Ltd in December 2023. Vinyl Group Ltd is based in South Yarra, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vinyl Group reported revenue of $14.4M in FY2025 versus $4.8K in FY2021, a compound +638.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$15.8M in FY2025.
JAXAF screens 49% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 709 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.69 | C$16.26 | +28% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$173.23 | C$20.54 | -88% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $72.67 | $51.11 | -30% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $170.77 | $182.10 | +7% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $107.71 | $33.12 | -69% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $384.17 | $80.41 | -79% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $271.87 | $34.04 | -87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $230.61 | $379.48 | +65% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $241.92 | $177.51 | -27% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $291.09 | $258.69 | -11% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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