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JD.com Inc (JDCO34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of JD.com Inc BRL 22.47, price BRL 22.99, upside -2.3%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · BR · Home Hong Kong

JC Broad data Oct 3, 2026

JD.com Inc

JDCO34 · SA

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value R$22.47 · Fairly valued (−2.3%)
!Quality 58/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +11.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Weak on future: 25 out of 100
!Weak on past: 24 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$68.72 R$16.30 Fair Value R$22.47 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$16.30 – R$68.72 · fair‑value band R$17.40 – R$27.46 · the R$22.99 price screens above the R$22.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.

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Company profile

JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses.

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JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China and Europe. It operates through three segments: JD Retail, JD Logistics, and New Businesses. The company provides home appliances; mobile handsets and other digital products; computers, including desktop, laptop, and other various products, as well as printers and other office equipment; furniture and household goods; apparel; cosmetics and other personal care items; and pet products. It offers women's shoes, bags, watches, jewelry, and luxury goods; men's shoes, sports gear, and fitness equipment; automobiles and accessories; maternal and childcare products; toys and musical instruments; food, beverages, and fresh produce; gifts, flowers, and plants; and pharmaceutical and healthcare products, such as OCT pharmaceutical products, nutritional supplements, healthcare services, and other healthcare equipment. In addition, the company provides books, e-books, music, movies, and other media products; virtual goods consisting of online travel agency, attraction tickets, and prepaid phone cards and game cards; industrial products; and installation and maintenance services. Further, it offers online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. Additionally, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; and offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services, as well as engages in online retail business; technology-driven supply chain solutions; and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

JD.com Inc (JDCO34) currently trades at R$22.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$22.47, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.3%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$43.91 per share, and 14 of the 23 models we run sit above the R$22.99 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at R$9.07, and 9 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: R$17.40 (bear) to R$27.46 (bull), the price of R$22.99 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

JD.com Inc reported revenue of 1.3T CNY in FY2025 versus 952B CNY in FY2021, a compound +8.3%/yr. Reported net income was 19.6B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap R$204B (≈ $39.1B) · P/E ratio 19.5 · P/S ratio 0.29 · EPS (TTM) R$1.18 · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% · Operating margin 1.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −2%, JDCO34 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$17.40 Fair Value R$22.47 Bull R$27.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF R$15.53 R$23.01 R$39.15 78
Growth DCF R$15.34 R$23.38 R$35.84 78
Residual Income R$18.37 R$19.97 R$23.76 76
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$15.53 R$23.01 R$39.15 78
Owner Earnings R$29.46 R$51.38 R$92.60 73
5Y Revenue Exit R$11.89 R$15.01 R$19.23 74
5Y EBITDA Exit R$17.26 R$26.73 R$39.21 75
5Y P/E Exit R$30.19 R$54.97 R$85.15 69
10Y Revenue Exit R$12.89 R$16.39 R$21.84 68
10Y EBITDA Exit R$16.65 R$25.28 R$39.54 67
10Y P/E Exit R$25.43 R$46.66 R$80.23 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$12.83 R$71.54 R$99.33 63
Lynch FV R$19.99 R$28.56 R$37.13 61
PEG = 1.0 R$19.99 R$28.56 R$37.13 57
EPV R$8.80 R$9.07 R$9.30 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$31.13 R$41.51 R$51.88 63
P/S Multiple R$24.05 R$32.07 R$40.09 58
P/B Multiple R$24.05 R$32.07 R$40.09 55
EV/EBIT R$11.73 R$13.23 R$14.74 66
EV/EBITDA R$18.65 R$22.47 R$26.28 67
EV/Revenue R$10.25 R$11.56 R$12.86 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$10.81 R$14.49 R$21.63 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$15.34 R$23.38 R$35.84 78
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$18.37 R$19.97 R$23.76 76
ROIC Compounder R$8.80 R$9.07 R$9.30 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$30.74 R$43.91 R$57.08 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 49
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 59
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 17
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 88
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +21.9% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 0%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.3% a year for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.4%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 100 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 58 · Below median
Fair Value upside +26.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6.0% · Above median
Return on assets −0.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1.1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 1.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 27.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.28× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 19.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.16× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.20× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 54.5× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 26.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.75× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)72 · sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)25 · sector 63
PAST (return on equity)24 · sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)86 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 42

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Amazon.com, Inc AMZN $249.15 $127.33 −49%
Alibaba Group BABA $107.54 $66.62 −38%
MercadoLibre, Inc MELI $1,725 $1,897 +10%
DoorDash, Inc DASH $178.39 $196.23 +10%
Sea Limited SE $95.27 $129.32 +36%
eBay Inc EBAY $107.32 $118.05 +10%
JD.com, Inc JD $26.30 $33.32 +27%
Coupang, Inc CPNG $13.88 $4.96 −64%
Wayfair Inc W $102.56 $34.72 −66%
Allegro.eu S.A ALE 49.56 PLN 54.51 PLN +10%

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JD.com Inc · Fair Value
R$22.47 −2%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "JD.com Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JDCO34

Frequently asked questions

Is JD.com Inc (JDCO34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$22.47 versus a price of R$22.99, about −2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of JDCO34?
Our model-based fair value for JD.com Inc is R$22.47 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$22.99.
What is the quality score of JDCO34?
JD.com Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$22.47 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$17.40, optimistic scenario R$27.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the JD.com Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$22.47, about −2% upside versus a price of R$22.99 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario R$17.40, optimistic scenario R$27.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
JD.com Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.3T CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, JD.com Inc would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.9 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JDCO34 use?
Our models discount JD.com Inc at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For JD.com Inc that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has JD.com Inc (JDCO34) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at JD.com Inc grew +11.9 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of JD.com Inc (JDCO34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into JD.com Inc (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.95 %: that much free cash flow JD.com Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For JD.com Inc it is R$22.47 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of R$22.99. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is JD.com Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, JDCO34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$22.99, fair value R$22.47, a gap of about −2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JDCO34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$22.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$22.47). For JD.com Inc the two are R$0.5200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is JD.com Inc worth?
The market values JD.com Inc at about R$204B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is R$22.99; our models calculate a fair value of R$22.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JDCO34?
Our models span a range for JD.com Inc: cautious scenario R$17.40, base R$22.47, optimistic R$27.46 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price R$22.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JDCO34?
JD.com Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$22.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 1.2, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 26.4.
What is the PEG ratio of JDCO34?
The PEG ratio of JD.com Inc is 0.75 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
Balance-sheet figures for JD.com Inc (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 6.0%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JDCO34 from its 52-week high?
JD.com Inc trades at R$22.99, about 26% below its 52-week high of R$31.03 and 8% above the low of R$21.35 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$22.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to JD.com Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is JD.com Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price R$22.99, calculated fair value R$22.47 (−2%), Quality Score 58/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JDCO34 calculated?
We run JD.com Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$22.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. JD.com Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$22.99. Our model-based fair value is R$22.47, about −2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with JD.com Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Key figures of JD.com Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
The market capitalisation of JD.com Inc is R$204B (≈ $39.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of JD.com Inc is 0.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
Earnings per share at JD.com Inc are R$1.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
The net margin of JD.com Inc is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of JD.com Inc is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of JD.com Inc is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
The operating margin of JD.com Inc is 1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
Revenue at JD.com Inc is growing +4.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at JD.com Inc (JDCO34)?
Earnings per share at JD.com Inc are growing −50.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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