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Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Japan Steel Works Ltd stock $8.83, price $16.75, that is 47.3% below the price, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

15 models, one by oneBear $8.04 to bull $10.63 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 52/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

Keep an eye on it?Free in your watchlist: 5 stocks without an account, 10 with one Yes, for free

Industrials US · ADR · Based in Japan

Some data Nov 3, 2026

Japan Steel Works Ltd

JPSWY · US

Very expensive, in a downtrend

Our calculation puts a fair price 47% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt

Quality 52/100

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +8.0 %/yr in JPY)

Thin margins · 7.8% net margin (TTM)

1.4% dividend yield · Watch coverage

Mixed vs. peers (8/14)

Some data

Revenue last quarter 14% below a year ago.

Fair value $8.83 · Strongly overvalued (−47.3%)

Negative free cash flow

Narrow moat 43/100 · thin data

Downbeat coverage

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.82 – $33.20 · fair‑value band $8.04 – $10.63 · the $16.75 price screens above the $8.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.

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Company profile

The Japan Steel Works, Ltd. engages in the provision of industrial machinery products, and material and engineering solutions in Japan and internationally.

Show moreShow less

The company offers polyolefin pelletizers, film and sheet manufacturing equipment, and extruders, as well as lifecysle solution such as maintenance concierge, and retrofitting; plastic injection, standard and special purpose injection, magnesium injection, and blow molding machines; and other machinery consists of excimer laser annealing systems, maritime and ground defense equipment, railway products, hot press devices, vacuum laminators, and deposit systems, plastics, mobility, high-performance batteries, coupler and draft gear for rolling stock, gate, overhaul, and electronics, as well as after sale services.

It also provides steel casting and forgings, such as reactor and steam generator parts, rotor shafts, turbine casings, die steel, steel rolls for steel mills, and clad steel plates; components for offshore wind power; and steel pressure vessels for hydrogen storage.

In addition, the company offers affiliates, vacuum deaeration system, magnet clamp system, mold change molding system, and IoT solutions.

Further, the company provides photonics, composite materials, and metallic materials for use in semiconductors and electronic devices, cameras and sensing devices, aircraft and mobility components, and electronic parts.

It serves plastic, mobility, batteries, electronic devices, defense, power generation, renewable energy, infrastructure, and photonics business. The Japan Steel Works, Ltd. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Shinagawa, Japan.

Stock analysis

Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY) currently trades at $16.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.83, 47% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $18.74 per share, and 4 of the 15 models we run sit above the $16.75 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.05, and 11 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $8.04 (bear) to $10.63 (bull), the price of $16.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥291B in FY2026 versus ¥214B in FY2022, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥20.4B in FY2026, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $2.5B Mid · P/E ratio 18.4 · P/S ratio 1.29 · EPS (TTM) $0.9100 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −47%, JPSWY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.04 Fair Value $8.83 Bull $10.63

Price $16.75 · Downside -47.3%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5535 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Residual Income $8.02 $8.80 $10.59 76

EPV $7.46 $8.67 $9.73 74

ROIC Compounder $7.46 $8.67 $10.06 72

All 15 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $5.95 $12.83 $16.31 66

PEG = 1.0 $1.99 $2.84 $3.70 57

EPV $7.46 $8.67 $9.73 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $2.82 $4.38 $6.07 68

DDM Multi-Stage $2.82 $4.06 $5.47 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple $13.78 $18.37 $22.96 63

P/S Multiple $11.15 $14.87 $18.59 58

P/B Multiple $30.33 $40.44 $50.55 55

EV/EBIT $14.21 $19.10 $23.99 66

EV/EBITDA $14.77 $19.85 $24.93 67

EV/Revenue $10.01 $14.50 $18.99 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $2.67 $4.05 $5.06 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income $8.02 $8.80 $10.59 76

ROIC Compounder $7.46 $8.67 $10.06 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $10.18 $14.55 $18.91 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 39

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 58

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 0

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 71

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 58

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 45

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 6

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 0

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 90

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

+17.2%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+6.9%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+8.0%

Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year

Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+3.5%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.

+38.5%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+37.1%

Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%

Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 9%

2026 sits 186% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

JPSWY screens overvalued: fair value 47% below the price. Compare with SIE →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (29 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative

Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

Japan Steel Works (TSE:5631) Stock May Be Reasonable As Cash Flow Recovery Matters Yahoo Finance · Oct 27, 2026
Japan Steel Works (TSE:5631): Is a 25x P/E Too Much for Slowing Growth? Yahoo Finance · Dec 19, 2025

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026

AI conclusion: Moderate moat supported by steady defense orders and India expansion for plastics machinery is offset by the main weakness of negative operating and free cash flows with average returns.

Main risk: Continued reliance on cyclical industrial demand remains the biggest risk as it would directly reduce order volumes across core machinery segments.

Japan Steel Works opened an office in Bengaluru this September to support its plastics machinery sales. The move targets growing demand in India for pelletizers and related equipment while defense and other segments show steady order progress. Yet the business remains tied to cyclical industrial demand and faces slower domestic momentum. Will expanding in emerging markets outweigh the limits of its established operations?

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 814 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures

A mixed picture versus its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 52 · Below median

Fair Value upside −47.3% · Below median

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 10.2% · Above median

Return on assets 4.7% · Above median

Net margin (12 months) 7.8% · Above median

Operating margin (12 months) 10.1% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −13.9% · Bottom 25%

Dividend yield (12 months) 1.4% · Below median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.35× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 18.4× · Cheaper than median

P/B 1.85× · Cheaper than median

P/S (12 months) 1.49× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 11.1× · Cheaper than median

PEG 2.61× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0

FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 31

PAST (return on equity)41 · sector 27

HEALTH (low debt)83 · sector 96

DIVIDEND (yield)28 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Cummins Inc CMI	$450.07	$359.36	−20%	vs JPSWY
SIE SIE	€263.65	€149.56	−43%	vs JPSWY
AMETEK, Inc AME	$228.67	$125.74	−45%	vs JPSWY
Illinois Tool Works Inc ITW	$280.95	$154.30	−45%	vs JPSWY
Sandvik AB SAND	kr 357.40	kr 194.33	−46%	vs JPSWY
Parker-Hannifin Corporation PH	$917.79	$492.92	−46%	vs JPSWY
Emerson Electric Co EMR	$162.35	$79.99	−51%	vs JPSWY
Eaton Corporation ETN	$341.72	$156.90	−54%	vs JPSWY
Rockwell Automation, Inc ROK	$375.86	$139.31	−63%	vs JPSWY
GE Vernova Inc GEV	$774.11	$143.50	−81%	vs JPSWY

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JPSWY

Frequently asked questions

Is Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.83 versus a price of $16.75, about 47% lower (overvalued).

What is the fair value of JPSWY?

Our model-based fair value for Japan Steel Works Ltd is $8.83 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.75.

What is the quality score of JPSWY?

Japan Steel Works Ltd has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.83 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.04, optimistic scenario $10.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $8.83, about 47% lower versus a price of $16.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.04, optimistic scenario $10.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

Japan Steel Works Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥265B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).

Does Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR pay a dividend?

Japan Steel Works Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.42% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).

How much is the dividend of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY) and when is the ex-dividend date?

Japan Steel Works Ltd has a dividend yield of 1.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2006. The payout ratio is 27.2% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.

What is the intrinsic value of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Japan Steel Works Ltd it is $8.83 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $16.75. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 6 families (Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).

Is Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Nov 3, 2026, JPSWY trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.75, fair value $8.83, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of JPSWY?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.83). For Japan Steel Works Ltd the two are $7.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR worth?

The market values Japan Steel Works Ltd at about $2.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $16.75; our models calculate a fair value of $8.83 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JPSWY?

Our models span a range for Japan Steel Works Ltd: cautious scenario $8.04, base $8.83, optimistic $10.63 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $16.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of JPSWY?

Japan Steel Works Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 1.9, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 11.1.

What is the PEG ratio of JPSWY?

The PEG ratio of Japan Steel Works Ltd is 2.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

Balance-sheet figures for Japan Steel Works Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is JPSWY from its 52-week high?

Japan Steel Works Ltd trades at $16.75, about 48% below its 52-week high of $32.28 and at the low of $16.69 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.83 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR?

From the same area (Industrials) we also value SIE, GE Vernova Inc, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $16.75, calculated fair value $8.83 (−47%), Quality Score 52/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of JPSWY calculated?

We run Japan Steel Works Ltd through 15 models from 6 families: Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $8.83 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Japan Steel Works Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $16.75. Our model-based fair value is $8.83, about 47% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR right now?

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($10.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Japan Steel Works Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

The market capitalisation of Japan Steel Works Ltd is $2.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Japan Steel Works Ltd is 1.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

Earnings per share at Japan Steel Works Ltd are $0.9100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

The dividend yield of Japan Steel Works Ltd is 1.4% (payout 26.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

The net margin of Japan Steel Works Ltd is 7.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Japan Steel Works Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Japan Steel Works Ltd is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

The operating margin of Japan Steel Works Ltd is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

Revenue at Japan Steel Works Ltd is growing −13.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?

Earnings per share at Japan Steel Works Ltd are growing +35.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY) generate?

The free cash flow of Japan Steel Works Ltd is −¥43.9B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY) carry?

The net debt of Japan Steel Works Ltd is ¥10.6B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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