Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Japan Steel Works Ltd $14.52, price $25.35, upside -42.7%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.87 – $33.41 · fair‑value band $10.16 – $18.87 · the $25.35 price screens above the $14.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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The Japan Steel Works, Ltd. engages in the provision of industrial machinery products, and material and engineering solutions in Japan and internationally.
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The Japan Steel Works, Ltd. engages in the provision of industrial machinery products, and material and engineering solutions in Japan and internationally. The company offers polyolefin pelletizers, film and sheet manufacturing equipment, and extruders, as well as lifecysle solution such as maintenance concierge, and retrofitting; plastic injection, standard and special purpose injection, magnesium injection, and blow molding machines; and other machinery consists of excimer laser annealing systems, maritime and ground defense equipment, railway products, hot press devices, vacuum laminators, and deposit systems, plastics, mobility, high-performance batteries, coupler and draft gear for rolling stock, gate, overhaul, and electronics, as well as after sale services. It also provides steel casting and forgings, such as reactor and steam generator parts, rotor shafts, turbine casings, die steel, steel rolls for steel mills, and clad steel plates; components for offshore wind power; and steel pressure vessels for hydrogen storage. In addition, the company offers affiliates, vacuum deaeration system, magnet clamp system, mold change molding system, and IoT solutions. Further, the company provides photonics, composite materials, and metallic materials for use in semiconductors and electronic devices, cameras and sensing devices, aircraft and mobility components, and electronic parts. It serves plastic, mobility, batteries, electronic devices, defense, power generation, renewable energy, infrastructure, and photonics business. The Japan Steel Works, Ltd. was founded in 1907 and is headquartered in Shinagawa, Japan.
Stock analysis
Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR (JPSWY) currently trades at $25.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.52, implying the stock looks roughly 74.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $26.67 per share, and 7 of the 14 models we run sit above the $25.35 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $5.09, and 7 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.16 (bear) to $18.87 (bull), the price of $25.35 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥291B in FY2026 versus ¥214B in FY2022, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥20.4B in FY2026, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $3.7B · P/E ratio 31.3 · P/S ratio 2.19 · EPS (TTM) $0.8100 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −43%, JPSWY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.16Fair Value $14.52Bull $18.87
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.7% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+38.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 9%
2026 sits 186% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Compare Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 832 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−43% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.35× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)31.3× · Pricier than median
P/B2.78× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)2.16× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA17.1× · Pricier than median
PEG2.61× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)62· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)38· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)23· sector 24
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JPSWY
Frequently asked questions
Is Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.52 versus a price of $25.35, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JPSWY?
Our model-based fair value for Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is $14.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.35.
What is the quality score of JPSWY?
Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.52 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.16, optimistic scenario $18.87. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.52, about −43% upside versus a price of $25.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.16, optimistic scenario $18.87. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥275B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.16% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR it is $14.52 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $25.35. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, JPSWY trades above its calculated fair value: price $25.35, fair value $14.52, a gap of about −43% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JPSWY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.52). For Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR the two are $10.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR at about $3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $25.35; our models calculate a fair value of $14.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JPSWY?
Our models span a range for Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $10.16, base $14.52, optimistic $18.87 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $25.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JPSWY?
Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.6, P/B 2.8, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 17.1.
What is the PEG ratio of JPSWY?
The PEG ratio of Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is 2.61 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.5%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JPSWY from its 52-week high?
Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR trades at $25.35, about 24% below its 52-week high of $33.41 and 17% above the low of $21.75 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $25.35, calculated fair value $14.52 (−43%), Quality Score 52/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JPSWY calculated?
We run Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $25.35. Our model-based fair value is $14.52, about −43% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($10.16 to $18.87) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
The market capitalisation of Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is $3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is 2.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
Earnings per share at Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR are $0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
The dividend yield of Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is 1.2% (payout 36.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
The net margin of Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is 7.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
The operating margin of Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
Revenue at Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is growing +12.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY)?
Earnings per share at Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR are growing +139% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY) generate?
The free cash flow of Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is −¥43.9B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Japan Steel Works Ltd (JPSWY) carry?
The net debt of Japan Steel Works Ltd ADR is ¥10.6B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026