Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Japan Exchange Group Inc stock $11.83, price $14.08, upside -16.0%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.82 – $15.26 · fair‑value band $5.09 – $17.04 · the $14.08 price screens above the $11.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
Follow Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Japan Exchange Group, Inc. operates as a financial instruments exchange holding company in Japan.
Show moreShow less
The company engages in the operation of financial instruments exchange markets for trading listed securities and derivatives instruments to market users; publication of stock prices and quotations; provides market facilities for trading of commodity derivatives, physical commodities, and commodity index futures; self-regulatory operations, such as listing examination, listed company compliance, market surveillance, and inspections and examinations of trading participants.
The company also provides clearing and settlement, and market-related services for transactions through proprietary trading systems (PTS), over-the-counter derivative transactions, and over-the-counter government bond transactions.
The company was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY) currently trades at $14.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.83, 16.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $11.89 per share, and 3 of the 13 models we run sit above the $14.08 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $2.16, and 10 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.09 (bear) to $17.04 (bull), the price of $14.08 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥211B in FY2026 versus ¥136B in FY2022, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥83.9B in FY2026, compounding +13.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $14.5B Large · P/E ratio 50.3 · P/S ratio 20.0 · EPS (TTM) $0.2800 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 39.8% · Return on equity 23.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 81 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −16%, JPXGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.09Fair Value $11.83Bull$17.04
Price $14.08 · Upside -16.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+28.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.28.2% vs 15.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.56% → 58%
2026 sits 180% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.6% a year for the price and +5.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Exchange operator benefits from durable network effects and pricing power, yet faces limited innovation signals and structurally low ROA.
Main risk: Narrowing of the Topix benchmark may concentrate activity among fewer names and reduce breadth of trading volumes across its exchanges.
Japan Exchange Group is reshaping the Topix index by removing hundreds of stocks and adding a smaller number under tougher liquidity and free-float rules, with changes starting later this month. This could draw more passive money into the market and lift trading volumes on its exchanges, but it also narrows the benchmark and may concentrate activity among fewer names. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the push for greater index appeal generate lasting volume growth or mainly favor a narrower set of large stocks?
Compare Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Data & Stock Exchanges · 51 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Above median
Fair Value upside−16.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)23.0% · Above median
Return on assets0.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)39.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)64.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)45.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Data & Stock Exchanges median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JPXGY
Frequently asked questions
Is Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.83 versus a price of $14.08, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JPXGY?
Our model-based fair value for Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR is $11.83 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.08.
What is the quality score of JPXGY?
Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.83 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.09, optimistic scenario $17.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.83, about −16% upside versus a price of $14.08 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.09, optimistic scenario $17.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥221B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 2.76% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.6 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of JPXGY use?
Our models discount Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR that is +3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR grew +9.6 % a year. The price currently implies +3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR (+3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.00 %: that much free cash flow Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR it is $11.83 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $14.08. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, JPXGY trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.08, fair value $11.83, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JPXGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.08); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.83). For Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR the two are $2.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR worth?
The market values Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR at about $14.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $14.08; our models calculate a fair value of $11.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JPXGY?
Our models span a range for Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR: cautious scenario $5.09, base $11.83, optimistic $17.04 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $14.08). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JPXGY?
Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.3 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 15.0, P/B 6.5, P/S 10.3, EV/EBITDA 14.3.
What is the PEG ratio of JPXGY?
The PEG ratio of Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR is 15.04 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 23.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JPXGY from its 52-week high?
Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR trades at $14.08, about 8% below its 52-week high of $15.26 and 40% above the low of $10.07 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value S&P Global Inc, CME Group, Intercontinental Exchange, Inc, Moody's Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $14.08, calculated fair value $11.83 (−16%), Quality Score 70/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JPXGY calculated?
We run Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $14.08. Our model-based fair value is $11.83, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide ($5.09 to $17.04). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY) come from?
Earnings per share at Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR grew +8.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.2 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
The market capitalisation of Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR is $14.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR is 20.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
Earnings per share at Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR are $0.2800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
The dividend yield of Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR is 2.8% (payout 139%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
The net margin of Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR is 39.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR is 23.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR is 0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
The operating margin of Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR is 64.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
Revenue at Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR is growing +45.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY)?
Earnings per share at Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR are growing +73.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Japan Exchange Group Inc (JPXGY) hold?
Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥58.2B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR in the live analysis
One click puts Japan Exchange Group Inc ADR on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Oct 22, 2026