Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Kalyani Forge Limited ₹227, price ₹945, upside -76.0%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹160.35 – ₹1,125 · fair‑value band ₹211.15 – ₹253.93 · the ₹944.75 price screens above the ₹226.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Kalyani Forge Limited, an engineering company, manufactures and sells forged, machined, and assembled products in India.
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Kalyani Forge Limited, an engineering company, manufactures and sells forged, machined, and assembled products in India. The company offers engine components, including connecting rod, crank and cam shafts, retainer and cross head valves, injector clamp, rocker arm, balance weight, cam lobe, and others; driveline parts, such as tulips, inner and outer race, tripod, spider, yoke shaft, double yoke, and gear blanks; and axle products for chassis systems, including idler and control arms, FS arms, brackets, stub, steering knuckle, front and rear axle parts, wheel hub, and others. It also provides turbo charger parts; transmission forged and machined components; warm and cold forged parts, such as fluid flywheel and wet double clutch; and industrial cold and hot forged parts for use in power tools, conveyors, compressors, and others. In addition, the company offers hot, cold, and warm forging; precision machining and finishing; heat treatment; die manufacturing; testing and inspection; engineering; and logistic services. It serves various industries, such as automotive; construction, mining, and infrastructure; power generation; marine; railways; agricultural; general industrial goods; and electric mobility. The company also exports its products to Europe, Japan, and the United States. Kalyani Forge Limited was incorporated in 1979 and is based in Pune, India.
Stock analysis
Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG) currently trades at ₹944.75, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹226.50, 76.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ₹563.45 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the ₹944.75 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹40.12, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ₹211.15 (bear) to ₹253.93 (bull), the price of ₹944.75 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Kalyani Forge Limited reported revenue of ₹2.3B in FY2026 versus ₹2.5B in FY2022, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was ₹93.2M in FY2026, compounding +31.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹3.4B (≈ $35.7M) · P/E ratio 36.9 · P/S ratio 1.47 · EPS (TTM) ₹25.59 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 4.0% · Return on equity 10.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −76%, KALYANIFRG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹211.15Fair Value ₹226.50Bull ₹253.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹10.94 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.32/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.4% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.3% vs 15.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 8%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 676 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−76.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.1% · Above median
Return on assets5.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)11.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−3.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.37× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)36.9× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.60× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.47× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA12.7× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 26
PAST (return on equity)40· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)82· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)8· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹226.50 versus a price of ₹944.75, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KALYANIFRG?
Our model-based fair value for Kalyani Forge Limited is ₹226.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹944.75.
What is the quality score of KALYANIFRG?
Kalyani Forge Limited has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹226.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹211.15, optimistic scenario ₹253.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kalyani Forge Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹226.50, about −76% upside versus a price of ₹944.75 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹211.15, optimistic scenario ₹253.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
Kalyani Forge Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹2.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Kalyani Forge Limited pay a dividend?
Kalyani Forge Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.42% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kalyani Forge Limited it is ₹226.50 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of ₹944.75. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kalyani Forge Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, KALYANIFRG trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹944.75, fair value ₹226.50, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KALYANIFRG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹944.75); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹226.50). For Kalyani Forge Limited the two are ₹718.25 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kalyani Forge Limited worth?
The market values Kalyani Forge Limited at about ₹3.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is ₹944.75; our models calculate a fair value of ₹226.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KALYANIFRG?
Our models span a range for Kalyani Forge Limited: cautious scenario ₹211.15, base ₹226.50, optimistic ₹253.93 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price ₹944.75). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KALYANIFRG?
Kalyani Forge Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.9 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹226.50 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 21.4. Other multiples: P/B 3.6, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 12.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kalyani Forge Limited (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 10.1%, debt of 0.37 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KALYANIFRG from its 52-week high?
Kalyani Forge Limited trades at ₹944.75, about 16% below its 52-week high of ₹1,125 and 77% above the low of ₹533.90 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹226.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kalyani Forge Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kalyani Forge Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price ₹944.75, calculated fair value ₹226.50 (−76%), Quality Score 42/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KALYANIFRG calculated?
We run Kalyani Forge Limited through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹226.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kalyani Forge Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was ₹944.75. Our model-based fair value is ₹226.50, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kalyani Forge Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹253.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG) come from?
Earnings per share at Kalyani Forge Limited grew +14.8 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin +8.2 %, tax rate +1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kalyani Forge Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
The market capitalisation of Kalyani Forge Limited is ₹3.4B (≈ $35.7M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kalyani Forge Limited is 1.47 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
Earnings per share at Kalyani Forge Limited are ₹25.59 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
The dividend yield of Kalyani Forge Limited is 0.4% (payout 15.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
The net margin of Kalyani Forge Limited is 4.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kalyani Forge Limited is 10.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kalyani Forge Limited is 5.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
The operating margin of Kalyani Forge Limited is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
Revenue at Kalyani Forge Limited is growing −3.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG)?
Earnings per share at Kalyani Forge Limited are growing +164% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG) generate?
The free cash flow of Kalyani Forge Limited is −₹333M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kalyani Forge Limited (KALYANIFRG) carry?
The net debt of Kalyani Forge Limited is ₹1.0B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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