PT Kencana Energi Lestari Tbk, (KEEN) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · ID · Market cap 3.2T IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 20, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 20, 2026, revised from 541.08 IDR to 538.80 IDR (−0.4%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +8.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 40% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (718.40 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (359.20 IDR to 718.40 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 282.24 IDR – 1,272 IDR · fair‑value band 359.20 IDR – 718.40 IDR · the 895.00 IDR price screens above the 538.80 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.
Analysis
PT Kencana Energi Lestari Tbk, (KEEN) currently trades at 895.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 538.80 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 39.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Kencana Energi Lestari Tbk, generated revenue of 33.4M IDR at a net margin of 22.0%. Revenue declined 9.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.1%. Net debt stands at 104M IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 359.20 IDR (bear case) to 718.40 IDR (bull case); at 895.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -40%, KEEN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (718.40 IDR) versus DCF Models (179.60 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Kencana Energi Lestari Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a renewable energy company in Indonesia. It operates through 5 reportable segments: The 3x6 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Pakkat (North Sumatera), The 3x7 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Air Putih (Bengkulu), The 2x5 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Madong (South Sulawesi), The 2x5 MW …
Full company description
PT Kencana Energi Lestari Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a renewable energy company in Indonesia. It operates through 5 reportable segments: The 3x6 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Pakkat (North Sumatera), The 3x7 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Air Putih (Bengkulu), The 2x5 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Madong (South Sulawesi), The 2x5 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Ordi Hulu (North Sumatera), and The 2x5 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Salu Noling (South Sulawesi). The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Jakarta Barat, Indonesia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Kencana Energi Lestari Tbk, reported revenue of 33.9M IDR in FY2025 versus 36.5M IDR in FY2021, a compound −1.9%/yr. Reported net income was 7.7M IDR in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
KEEN screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $257.57 | $89.08 | -65% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $158.86 | $47.59 | -70% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹218.45 | ₹75.57 | -65% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥3.88 | ¥3.13 | -19% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $137.90 | $56.02 | -59% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 67.50 THB | 40.44 THB | -40% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,730 | ₹342.02 | -80% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $372.37 | $44.67 | -88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.80 | ¥4.95 | -15% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$58.45 | HK$31.90 | -45% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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