Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Kencana Energi Lestari IDR 267, price IDR 850, upside -68.6%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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PT Kencana Energi Lestari Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a renewable energy company in Indonesia.
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PT Kencana Energi Lestari Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a renewable energy company in Indonesia. It operates through 5 reportable segments: The 3x6 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Pakkat (North Sumatera), The 3x7 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Air Putih (Bengkulu), The 2x5 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Madong (South Sulawesi), The 2x5 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Ordi Hulu (North Sumatera), and The 2x5 MW hydroelectric powerplant in Salu Noling (South Sulawesi). The company was founded in 2008 and is based in Jakarta Barat, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN) currently trades at 850.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 266.67 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 218.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 355.56 IDR per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the 850.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 88.89 IDR, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 190.39 IDR (bear) to 397.91 IDR (bull), the price of 850.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kencana Energi Lestari reported revenue of $33.9M in FY2025 versus $36.5M in FY2021, a compound −1.9%/yr. Reported net income was $7.7M in FY2025, compounding +3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.1T IDR (≈ $174M) · P/E ratio 23.6 · P/S ratio 5.34 · EPS (TTM) 35.98 IDR · Net margin 22.6% · Return on equity 4.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.2% · Operating margin 70.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −69%, KEEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 190.39 IDRFair Value 266.67 IDRBull 397.91 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (26.42 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+12.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 4%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 55%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +31.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−69% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)71% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.50× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)23.6× · Pricier than median
P/B1.79× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)9.38× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF50.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA22.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)17· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)75· sector 71
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kencana Energi Lestari Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KEEN
Frequently asked questions
Is Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 266.67 IDR versus a price of 850.00 IDR, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KEEN?
Our model-based fair value for Kencana Energi Lestari is 266.67 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 850.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of KEEN?
Kencana Energi Lestari has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 266.67 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 190.39 IDR, optimistic scenario 397.91 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kencana Energi Lestari stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 266.67 IDR, about −69% upside versus a price of 850.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 190.39 IDR, optimistic scenario 397.91 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
Kencana Energi Lestari reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kencana Energi Lestari would have to grow free cash flow by +34.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KEEN use?
Our models discount Kencana Energi Lestari at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.17, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kencana Energi Lestari that is +34.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kencana Energi Lestari grew +6.0 % a year. The price currently implies +34.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kencana Energi Lestari (+34.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.54 %: that much free cash flow Kencana Energi Lestari produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kencana Energi Lestari it is 266.67 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 850.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kencana Energi Lestari stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KEEN trades above its calculated fair value: price 850.00 IDR, fair value 266.67 IDR, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KEEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (850.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (266.67 IDR). For Kencana Energi Lestari the two are 583.33 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kencana Energi Lestari worth?
The market values Kencana Energi Lestari at about 3.1T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 850.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 266.67 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KEEN?
Our models span a range for Kencana Energi Lestari: cautious scenario 190.39 IDR, base 266.67 IDR, optimistic 397.91 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 850.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KEEN?
Kencana Energi Lestari trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 266.67 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.8, P/S 9.4, EV/EBITDA 22.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kencana Energi Lestari (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 4.1%, debt of 0.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KEEN from its 52-week high?
Kencana Energi Lestari trades at 850.00 IDR, about 33% below its 52-week high of 1,272 IDR and 16% above the low of 732.80 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 266.67 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kencana Energi Lestari?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kencana Energi Lestari stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 850.00 IDR, calculated fair value 266.67 IDR (−69%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KEEN calculated?
We run Kencana Energi Lestari through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 266.67 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Kencana Energi Lestari itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 850.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 266.67 IDR, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kencana Energi Lestari right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (397.91 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (190.39 IDR to 397.91 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Kencana Energi Lestari
How large is the market capitalisation of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
The market capitalisation of Kencana Energi Lestari is 3.1T IDR (≈ $174M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kencana Energi Lestari is 5.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
Earnings per share at Kencana Energi Lestari are 35.98 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
The net margin of Kencana Energi Lestari is 22.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kencana Energi Lestari is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kencana Energi Lestari is 6.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
The operating margin of Kencana Energi Lestari is 70.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
Revenue at Kencana Energi Lestari is growing −9.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN)?
Earnings per share at Kencana Energi Lestari are growing −10.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kencana Energi Lestari (KEEN) carry?
The net debt of Kencana Energi Lestari is $104M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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