Kesla Oyj A (KELAS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Kesla Oyj A €5.04, price €4.11, upside +22.6%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.30 – €6.96 · fair‑value band €3.89 – €6.75 · the €4.11 price screens below the €5.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Kesla Oyj develops machinery, technology, and services for customers in the forest and other industries in Finland. The company offers truck and stationary cranes, including timber and city cranes, and truck and stationary cranes' grapples; and logging equipment, such as grapples, harvester heads, and forest machine cranes.
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Kesla Oyj develops machinery, technology, and services for customers in the forest and other industries in Finland. The company offers truck and stationary cranes, including timber and city cranes, and truck and stationary cranes' grapples; and logging equipment, such as grapples, harvester heads, and forest machine cranes. It also provides tractor equipment, including loaders, trailers, stroke delimbers, and tractor equipment grapples. The company was founded in 1960 and is headquartered in Joensuu, Finland.
Stock analysis
Kesla Oyj A (KELAS) currently trades at €4.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.04, implying the stock looks roughly 18.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €4.78 per share, and 6 of the 7 models we run sit above the €4.11 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1.48, and 1 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €3.89 (bear) to €6.75 (bull), the price of €4.11 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Kesla Oyj A reported revenue of €34.4M in FY2025 versus €45.5M in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was −€4.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €13.9M · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) €−1.32 · Net margin −13.0% · Return on equity −45.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.7% · Operating margin −26.1% · Revenue (TTM) €34.4M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 16% fair-value upside, at 23%, KELAS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €3.89Fair Value €5.04Bull €6.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.5% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.4% (2020) → −14.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+23% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets−12% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−26% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−27% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kesla Oyj A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KELAS
Frequently asked questions
Is Kesla Oyj A (KELAS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €5.04 versus a price of €4.11, about +23% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KELAS?
Our model-based fair value for Kesla Oyj A is €5.04 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.11.
What is the quality score of KELAS?
Kesla Oyj A has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €5.04 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.89, optimistic scenario €6.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kesla Oyj A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €5.04, about +23% upside versus a price of €4.11 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €3.89, optimistic scenario €6.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
Kesla Oyj A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €34.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kesla Oyj A would have to grow free cash flow by +8.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KELAS use?
Our models discount Kesla Oyj A at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.22, country premium for Finland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kesla Oyj A that is +8.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kesla Oyj A (KELAS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kesla Oyj A grew -2.8 % a year. The price currently implies +8.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kesla Oyj A (+8.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.77 %: that much free cash flow Kesla Oyj A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kesla Oyj A it is €5.04 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €4.11. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kesla Oyj A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, KELAS trades below its calculated fair value: price €4.11, fair value €5.04, a gap of about +23% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KELAS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€5.04). For Kesla Oyj A the two are €0.9300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kesla Oyj A worth?
The market values Kesla Oyj A at about €13.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €4.11; our models calculate a fair value of €5.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KELAS?
Our models span a range for Kesla Oyj A: cautious scenario €3.89, base €5.04, optimistic €6.75 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €4.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of KELAS?
The PEG ratio of Kesla Oyj A is 3.06 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kesla Oyj A (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −45.9%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KELAS from its 52-week high?
Kesla Oyj A trades at €4.11, about 41% below its 52-week high of €6.96 and 79% above the low of €2.30 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €5.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kesla Oyj A?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kesla Oyj A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €4.11, calculated fair value €5.04 (+23%), Quality Score 44/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KELAS calculated?
We run Kesla Oyj A through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €5.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Kesla Oyj A currently trades 23 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €4.11. Our model-based fair value is €5.04, about +23% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kesla Oyj A right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Kesla Oyj A
How large is the market capitalisation of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
The market capitalisation of Kesla Oyj A is €13.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kesla Oyj A is 0.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
Earnings per share at Kesla Oyj A are €−1.32. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
The net margin of Kesla Oyj A is −13.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kesla Oyj A is −45.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kesla Oyj A is −2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
The operating margin of Kesla Oyj A is −26.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
Revenue at Kesla Oyj A is growing −26.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kesla Oyj A (KELAS)?
Earnings per share at Kesla Oyj A are growing +549% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kesla Oyj A (KELAS) carry?
The net debt of Kesla Oyj A is €10.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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