Kogeneracja SA (KGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kogeneracja SA stock PLN 257, price PLN 87.70, upside +193.5%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 20.90 PLN – 87.70 PLN · fair‑value band 188.93 PLN – 325.87 PLN · the 87.70 PLN price screens below the 257.40 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
Follow Kogeneracja in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Kogeneracja is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Zespól Elektrocieplowni Wroclawskich KOGENERACJA S.A. engages in the production of electricity and heat in Poland. It is also involved in the wholesale and retail sale of electricity, heat, and power industry products and services. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Wroclaw, Poland.
Show moreShow less
Zespól Elektrocieplowni Wroclawskich KOGENERACJA S.A. operates as a subsidiary of PGE Energia Ciepla S.A.
Stock analysis
Kogeneracja SA (KGN) currently trades at 87.70 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 257.40 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 66% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 418.68 PLN per share, and 23 of the 24 models we run sit above the 87.70 PLN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 114.46 PLN, and 1 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 188.93 PLN (bear) to 325.87 PLN (bull), the price of 87.70 PLN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kogeneracja SA reported revenue of 2.7B PLN in FY2025 versus 1.4B PLN in FY2021, a compound +16.6%/yr. Reported net income was 277M PLN in FY2025, compounding +49.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 1.3B PLN (≈ $331M) Small · P/E ratio 3.9 · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) 22.43 PLN · Net margin 11.6% · Return on equity 12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 194%, KGN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear188.93 PLNFair Value 257.40 PLNBull325.87 PLN
Price 87.70 PLN · Upside +193.5%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (19.23 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+27.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27.3% vs 8.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−21.1%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −23.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Electric · 155 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.6% · Above median
Return on assets6.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)−3.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Electric median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kogeneracja SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KGN
Frequently asked questions
Is Kogeneracja SA (KGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 257.40 PLN versus a price of 87.70 PLN, about +194% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KGN?
Our model-based fair value for Kogeneracja SA is 257.40 PLN (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 87.70 PLN.
What is the quality score of KGN?
Kogeneracja SA has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 257.40 PLN (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 188.93 PLN, optimistic scenario 325.87 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kogeneracja SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 257.40 PLN, about +194% upside versus a price of 87.70 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 188.93 PLN, optimistic scenario 325.87 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
Kogeneracja SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.9B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kogeneracja SA would have to grow free cash flow by -21.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +17.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KGN use?
Our models discount Kogeneracja SA at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.62, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kogeneracja SA that is -21.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kogeneracja SA (KGN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kogeneracja SA grew +17.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -21.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kogeneracja SA (KGN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kogeneracja SA (-21.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 37.16 %: that much free cash flow Kogeneracja SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kogeneracja SA it is 257.40 PLN per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of 87.70 PLN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Kogeneracja SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, KGN trades below its calculated fair value: price 87.70 PLN, fair value 257.40 PLN, a gap of about +194% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (87.70 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (257.40 PLN). For Kogeneracja SA the two are 169.70 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kogeneracja SA worth?
The market values Kogeneracja SA at about 1.3B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is 87.70 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 257.40 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KGN?
Our models span a range for Kogeneracja SA: cautious scenario 188.93 PLN, base 257.40 PLN, optimistic 325.87 PLN per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price 87.70 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KGN?
Kogeneracja SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 3.9 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 257.40 PLN is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 5.2. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 2.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kogeneracja SA (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 12.6%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KGN from its 52-week high?
Kogeneracja SA trades at 87.70 PLN, at its 52-week high of 87.70 PLN and 46% above the low of 60.20 PLN (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 257.40 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kogeneracja SA?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value NextEra Energy, Inc, The Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation, American Electric Power Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kogeneracja SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price 87.70 PLN, calculated fair value 257.40 PLN (+194%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KGN calculated?
We run Kogeneracja SA through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 257.40 PLN builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Kogeneracja SA currently trades 66% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was 87.70 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 257.40 PLN, about +194% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kogeneracja SA right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (188.93 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Kogeneracja SA (KGN) come from?
Earnings per share at Kogeneracja SA grew +9.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.4 %, EBIT margin −3.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kogeneracja SA
How large is the market capitalisation of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
The market capitalisation of Kogeneracja SA is 1.3B PLN (≈ $331M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kogeneracja SA is 0.44 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
Earnings per share at Kogeneracja SA are 22.43 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
The net margin of Kogeneracja SA is 11.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kogeneracja SA is 12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kogeneracja SA is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
The operating margin of Kogeneracja SA is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
Revenue at Kogeneracja SA is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kogeneracja SA (KGN)?
Earnings per share at Kogeneracja SA are growing +67.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kogeneracja SA (KGN) carry?
The net debt of Kogeneracja SA is 310M PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Kogeneracja SA in the live analysis
One click puts Kogeneracja SA on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Nov 5, 2026