Kogan.com Ltd (KGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Kogan.com Ltd A$4.49, price A$3.30, upside +36.1%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.50 – A$12.13 · fair‑value band A$3.30 – A$6.04 · the A$3.30 price screens below the A$4.49 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kogan.com Ltd operates as an online retailer in Australia. The company offers various brands across a range of categories, including consumer electronics, appliances, homewares, hardware, toys, and others, as well as furniture, gaming, and other entertainment products; and owns and operates private label brands. It also provides pre-paid mobile phone plans.
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Kogan.com Ltd operates as an online retailer in Australia. The company offers various brands across a range of categories, including consumer electronics, appliances, homewares, hardware, toys, and others, as well as furniture, gaming, and other entertainment products; and owns and operates private label brands. It also provides pre-paid mobile phone plans. In addition, the company offers general insurances, including home, contents, and car, as well as pet and life insurance; and NBN internet plans. Further, it provides superannuation funds, credit cards, and power and gas services. The company provides its products under the company's brands, such as Kogan, Ovela, Fortis, Vostok, and Komodo, as well as products from third party brands comprising Apple, Canon, Swann, and Samsung. The company was founded in 2006 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Kogan.com Ltd (KGN) currently trades at A$3.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.49, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of A$5.51 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the A$3.30 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$1.35, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: A$3.30 (bear) to A$6.04 (bull), the price of A$3.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Kogan.com Ltd reported revenue of A$488M in FY2025 versus A$779M in FY2021, a compound −11.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$39.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$403M (≈ $283M) · P/S ratio 0.80 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.4100 · Dividend yield 4.5% · Net margin −8.1% · Return on equity −46.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −5.4% · Operating margin 5.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 36%, KGN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$3.30Fair Value A$4.49Bull A$6.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.28/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.3% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
8.3% (2020) → −6.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.8% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 108 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+36% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.5% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kogan.com Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KGN
Frequently asked questions
Is Kogan.com Ltd (KGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.49 versus a price of A$3.30, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KGN?
Our model-based fair value for Kogan.com Ltd is A$4.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$3.30.
What is the quality score of KGN?
Kogan.com Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$4.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.30, optimistic scenario A$6.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kogan.com Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$4.49, about +36% upside versus a price of A$3.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$3.30, optimistic scenario A$6.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
Kogan.com Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$503M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kogan.com Ltd pay a dividend?
Kogan.com Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.55% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kogan.com Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +2.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KGN use?
Our models discount Kogan.com Ltd at 15.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 2.02, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kogan.com Ltd that is +2.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kogan.com Ltd (KGN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kogan.com Ltd grew -0.3 % a year. The price currently implies +2.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kogan.com Ltd (+2.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.07 %: that much free cash flow Kogan.com Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kogan.com Ltd it is A$4.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$3.30. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kogan.com Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KGN trades below its calculated fair value: price A$3.30, fair value A$4.49, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$3.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$4.49). For Kogan.com Ltd the two are A$1.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kogan.com Ltd worth?
The market values Kogan.com Ltd at about A$403M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$3.30; our models calculate a fair value of A$4.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KGN?
Our models span a range for Kogan.com Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.30, base A$4.49, optimistic A$6.04 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$3.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of KGN?
The PEG ratio of Kogan.com Ltd is 2.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kogan.com Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −46.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KGN from its 52-week high?
Kogan.com Ltd trades at A$3.30, about 30% below its 52-week high of A$4.74 and 13% above the low of A$2.92 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$4.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kogan.com Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kogan.com Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$3.30, calculated fair value A$4.49 (+36%), Quality Score 68/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KGN calculated?
We run Kogan.com Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$4.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Kogan.com Ltd currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$3.30. Our model-based fair value is A$4.49, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kogan.com Ltd right now?
Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (A$3.30 to A$6.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Kogan.com Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
The market capitalisation of Kogan.com Ltd is A$403M (≈ $283M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kogan.com Ltd is 0.80 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
Earnings per share at Kogan.com Ltd are A$−0.4100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
The dividend yield of Kogan.com Ltd is 4.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
The net margin of Kogan.com Ltd is −8.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kogan.com Ltd is −46.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kogan.com Ltd is −5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
The operating margin of Kogan.com Ltd is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
Revenue at Kogan.com Ltd is growing +5.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kogan.com Ltd (KGN)?
Earnings per share at Kogan.com Ltd are growing −18.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kogan.com Ltd (KGN) hold?
Kogan.com Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$25.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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