Kogan.com Ltd (KGN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$403M
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from A$2.53 to A$4.75 (+87.7%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +11.5% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (A$3.43 to A$6.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.50 – A$12.13 · fair‑value band A$3.43 – A$6.48 · the A$4.74 price screens below the A$4.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Kogan.com Ltd (KGN) currently trades at A$4.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.75, implying the stock looks roughly 0.2% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kogan.com Ltd generated revenue of A$503M at a net margin of -8.3%. Revenue grew 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -46.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$25.5M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$3.43 (bear case) to A$6.48 (bull case); at A$4.74, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at 0%, KGN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$5.68) versus Asset-Based (A$0.4300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kogan.com Ltd operates as an online retailer in Australia. The company offers various brands across a range of categories, including consumer electronics, appliances, homewares, hardware, toys, and others, as well as furniture, gaming, and other entertainment products; and owns and operates private label brands. It also provides pre-paid mobile phone plans.
Full company description
Kogan.com Ltd operates as an online retailer in Australia. The company offers various brands across a range of categories, including consumer electronics, appliances, homewares, hardware, toys, and others, as well as furniture, gaming, and other entertainment products; and owns and operates private label brands. It also provides pre-paid mobile phone plans. In addition, the company offers general insurances, including home, contents, and car, as well as pet and life insurance; and NBN internet plans. Further, it provides superannuation funds, credit cards, and power and gas services. The company provides its products under the company's brands, such as Kogan, Ovela, Fortis, Vostok, and Komodo, as well as products from third party brands comprising Apple, Canon, Swann, and Samsung. The company was founded in 2006 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kogan.com Ltd reported revenue of A$488M in FY2025 versus A$779M in FY2021, a compound −11.0%/yr. Reported net income was −A$39.5M in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Internet Retail · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $245.34 | $127.67 | -48% |
| Alibaba Group BABA | $114.97 | $75.75 | -34% |
| PDD Holdings PDD | $84.14 | $223.51 | +166% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,814 | $798.98 | -56% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $190.16 | $38.64 | -80% |
| Sea Limited SE | $106.22 | $52.70 | -50% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $117.20 | $60.13 | -49% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | €25.95 | €31.88 | +23% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $16.86 | $2.79 | -83% |
| Delivery Hero SE DHER | €38.18 | €12.71 | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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