Kier Group PLC (KIE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Kier Group PLC £3.50, price £3.12, upside +12.2%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.5187 – £3.14 · fair‑value band £2.49 – £4.51 · the £3.12 price screens below the £3.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Kier Group plc primarily engages in the construction business in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Construction, Infrastructure Services, Property and Corporate.
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Kier Group plc primarily engages in the construction business in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Construction, Infrastructure Services, Property and Corporate. It constructs power stations, roads, bridges, railways, and tunnels; and buildings for public and private sectors, including schools, hospitals, defence estate optimisation, commercial, residential and heritage buildings for local authorities, the Ministry of Justice, other government departments, and prisons. It also provides maintenance services for the UK road, rail, and utilities infrastructure, as well as reactive repairs; water and network services; mechanical and electrical engineering and fabric maintenance services; and cleaning, grounds' maintenance, security, and pest control services. In addition, the company invests in and develops property schemes and sites. Kier Group plc was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Salford, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Kier Group PLC (KIE) currently trades at £3.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.50, implying the stock looks roughly 10.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £8.38 per share, and 15 of the 25 models we run sit above the £3.12 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.6200, and 10 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £2.49 (bear) to £4.51 (bull), the price of £3.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kier Group PLC reported revenue of 4.1B GBX in FY2025 versus 3.3B GBX in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was 56.4M GBX in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.5B GBX · P/E ratio 24.0 · P/S ratio 0.33 · EPS (TTM) £0.1300 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 12%, KIE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £2.49Fair Value £3.50Bull £4.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0520 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+28.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+26.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−5% → 3%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 14.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.8% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 808 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+12.2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.9% · Above median
Return on assets2.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1.5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.47× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)24.0× · Pricier than median
P/B2.81× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kier Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KIE
Frequently asked questions
Is Kier Group PLC (KIE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.50 versus a price of £3.12, about +12% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KIE?
Our model-based fair value for Kier Group PLC is £3.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.12.
What is the quality score of KIE?
Kier Group PLC has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £3.50 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.49, optimistic scenario £4.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kier Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £3.50, about +12% upside versus a price of £3.12 (undervalued). Cautious scenario £2.49, optimistic scenario £4.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
Kier Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £4.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Kier Group PLC pay a dividend?
Kier Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.50% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kier Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -11.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.6 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KIE use?
Our models discount Kier Group PLC at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kier Group PLC that is -11.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kier Group PLC (KIE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kier Group PLC grew +3.6 % a year. The price currently implies -11.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kier Group PLC (KIE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kier Group PLC (-11.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.40 %: that much free cash flow Kier Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kier Group PLC it is £3.50 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of £3.12. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kier Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, KIE trades below its calculated fair value: price £3.12, fair value £3.50, a gap of about +12% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KIE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£3.50). For Kier Group PLC the two are £0.3800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kier Group PLC worth?
The market values Kier Group PLC at about 1.5B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is £3.12; our models calculate a fair value of £3.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KIE?
Our models span a range for Kier Group PLC: cautious scenario £2.49, base £3.50, optimistic £4.51 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price £3.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KIE?
Kier Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £3.50 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 0.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kier Group PLC (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 11.9%, debt of 0.47 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KIE from its 52-week high?
Kier Group PLC trades at £3.12, about 1% below its 52-week high of £3.14 and 66% above the low of £1.88 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £3.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kier Group PLC?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kier Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price £3.12, calculated fair value £3.50 (+12%), Quality Score 50/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KIE calculated?
We run Kier Group PLC through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £3.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Kier Group PLC currently trades 12 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was £3.12. Our model-based fair value is £3.50, about +12% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kier Group PLC right now?
A fairly wide model range (£2.49 to £4.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Kier Group PLC (KIE) come from?
Earnings per share at Kier Group PLC grew −9.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −16.1 %, EBIT margin +1.2 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kier Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
The market capitalisation of Kier Group PLC is 1.5B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kier Group PLC is 0.33 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
Earnings per share at Kier Group PLC are £0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
The dividend yield of Kier Group PLC is 2.5% (payout 60.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
The net margin of Kier Group PLC is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kier Group PLC is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kier Group PLC is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
The operating margin of Kier Group PLC is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
Revenue at Kier Group PLC is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kier Group PLC (KIE)?
Earnings per share at Kier Group PLC are growing +22.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kier Group PLC (KIE) hold?
Kier Group PLC holds more cash than debt, 53.0M GBX net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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