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Kier Group (KIE) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · GB · Market cap 974M GBX

KG Kier Group KIE · LSE
Price£2.62
Fair Value£3.50
Upside+33.7%
Quality50/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 1.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
3.55% dividend yield
Trails peers (4/13)
Narrow moat 36/100
Evidence: High Range £2.49 – £4.51 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from £2.71 to £3.50 (+29.2%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +19.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 34% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (£2.49 to £4.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£2.62 £0.5187 Fair Value £3.50 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.5187 – £2.62 · fair‑value band £2.49 – £4.51 · the £2.62 price screens below the £3.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Kier Group (KIE) currently trades at £2.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.50, implying the stock looks roughly 33.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Kier Group generated revenue of £4.1B at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue grew 2.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of £53.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £2.49 (bear case) to £4.51 (bull case); at £2.62, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at 34%, KIE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £7.99 £9.57 £11.47 80
Residual Income £1.00 £1.11 £1.47 76
Rev-Margin DCF £6.51 £7.83 £9.30 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £7.93 £9.69 £11.93 38
Owner Earnings £6.11 £7.18 £8.53 31
5Y Revenue Exit £6.51 £7.75 £9.25 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £7.56 £9.64 £11.97 41
5Y P/E Exit £6.25 £7.28 £8.30 38
10Y Revenue Exit £7.01 £8.18 £9.60 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £7.67 £9.36 £11.43 37
10Y P/E Exit £6.92 £7.89 £8.95 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £0.8800 £2.29 £2.99 54
PEG = 1.0 £0.4400 £0.6200 £0.8100 46
EPV £4.99 £5.22 £5.41 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £0.4300 £0.7500 £1.06 70
DDM Multi-Stage £0.4300 £0.6200 £0.8000 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £2.03 £2.71 £3.38 63
P/S Multiple £1.64 £2.19 £2.74 58
P/B Multiple £1.64 £2.19 £2.74 55
EV/EBIT £6.62 £7.73 £8.83 53
EV/EBITDA £7.86 £9.37 £10.89 54
EV/Revenue £5.67 £6.69 £7.70 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.5900 £0.7900 £1.18 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £7.99 £9.57 £11.47 80
Rev-Margin DCF £6.51 £7.83 £9.30 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income £1.00 £1.11 £1.47 76
ROIC Compounder £4.99 £5.22 £5.41 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £1.59 £2.27 £2.94 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£7.89) versus Dividend Discount (£0.6200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 4.1B GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) +2.0%
Net margin 1.5%
Return on equity 11.9%
Free cash flow 224M GBX FY2025
P/E ratio 20.1
More key figures
Operating margin 2.7%
EPS (TTM) £0.1300
Dividend yield 3.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +22.7%
Net cash 53.0M GBX FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 50/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 67
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 62
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Kier Group plc primarily engages in the construction business in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Construction, Infrastructure Services, Property and Corporate.

Full company description

Kier Group plc primarily engages in the construction business in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Construction, Infrastructure Services, Property and Corporate. It constructs power stations, roads, bridges, railways, and tunnels; and buildings for public and private sectors, including schools, hospitals, defence estate optimisation, commercial, residential and heritage buildings for local authorities, the Ministry of Justice, other government departments, and prisons. It also provides maintenance services for the UK road, rail, and utilities infrastructure, as well as reactive repairs; water and network services; mechanical and electrical engineering and fabric maintenance services; and cleaning, grounds' maintenance, security, and pest control services. In addition, the company invests in and develops property schemes and sites. Kier Group plc was incorporated in 1992 and is based in Salford, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Kier Group reported revenue of £4.1B in FY2025 versus £3.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was £56.4M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£4.1B
Latest YoY
+4.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.6%
Avg. growth/yr (32Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.7%
Revenue +5.7%/yr
FY21 £3.3B
FY22 £3.1B
FY23 £3.4B
FY24 £3.9B
FY25 £4.1B
Net income
FY21 −£300K
FY22 £12.7M
FY23 £41.1M
FY24 £42.7M
FY25 £56.4M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −9.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share −16.1 pp

of which total revenue +2.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −18.3 pp

EBIT margin +1.2 pp
Tax rate +0.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +5.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kier Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KIE

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 838 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 50 · Below median
Fair Value upside +39% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 12% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.47× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.55× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.32× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 5.9× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 85 · sector 14
FUTURE 10 · sector 14
PAST 48 · sector 26
HEALTH 77 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 71 · sector 33

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Larsen & Toubro Limited LT ₹4,020 ₹1,994 -50%
Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 357,500 KRW 261,411 KRW -27%
Hyundai Engineering & Construction Co 000720 113,700 KRW 61,453 KRW -46%
Samsung E&A Co 028050 49,300 KRW 43,624 KRW -12%
Rail Vikas Nigam Limited RVNL ₹230.00 ₹48.92 -79%
Daewoo Engineering & Construction Co 047040 18,400 KRW 6,507 KRW -65%
KEPCO Engineering & Construction Company 052690 99,800 KRW 19,346 KRW -81%
GS Engineering & Construction Corporation 006360 35,200 KRW 23,135 KRW -34%
DL E&C Co 375500 73,500 KRW 148,433 KRW +102%
KEPCO Plant Service & Engineering Co 051600 45,400 KRW 43,924 KRW -3%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Kier Group (KIE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.50 versus a price of £2.62, about +34% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KIE?
Our model-based fair value for Kier Group is £3.50 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £2.62.
What is the quality score of KIE?
Kier Group has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Kier Group (KIE)?
Kier Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £4.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of KIE?
The net profit margin of Kier Group is about 1.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Kier Group pay a dividend?
Kier Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.87% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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