Kelsian Group (KLS) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · AU · Market cap A$1.2B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from A$6.96 to A$4.21 (−39.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +7.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from A$3.16 (bear) to A$5.27 (bull), base A$4.21. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 41/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$2.13 – A$8.62 · fair‑value band A$3.16 – A$5.27 · the A$4.66 price screens above the A$4.21 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Kelsian Group (KLS) currently trades at A$4.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.21, implying the stock looks roughly 9.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kelsian Group generated revenue of A$2.3B at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue grew 10.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.0%. Net debt stands at A$887M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$3.16 (bear case) to A$5.27 (bull case); at A$4.66, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -28% fair-value upside, at -10%, KLS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$6.96) versus Growth DCF (A$0.5800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 42 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kelsian Group Limited provides land and marine transport, and tourism services. It operates through four segments: Marine and Tourism, Australian Bus, International Bus, and Corporate.
Full company description
Kelsian Group Limited provides land and marine transport, and tourism services. It operates through four segments: Marine and Tourism, Australian Bus, International Bus, and Corporate. The Marine and Tourism segment operates vehicle and passenger ferry services, barging, coach tours and package holidays, lunch, dinner, charter cruises, and accommodation facilities. The Australian Bus segment operates metropolitan public bus services on behalf of governments in Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide, and Stradbroke Island; regional and remote bus services; and charter bus services in the Northern Territory. The International Bus segment operates metropolitan public bus services on behalf of governments in the channels islands, the United Kingdom, and Singapore; and charter motorcoaches for corporates, local and federal government, and education sectors in the United States. The Corporate segment provides finance, sales and marketing, information and technology, business development, fleet management, health and safety, and administration and risk management support services. It operates 5,800 buses, 124 vessels, and 24 light rail vehicles. The company was formerly known as SeaLink Travel Group Limited and changed its name to Kelsian Group Limited in November 2021. Kelsian Group Limited was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Adelaide, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kelsian Group reported revenue of A$2.2B in FY2025 versus A$1.2B in FY2021, a compound +17.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$54.5M in FY2025, compounding +9.6%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $301.75 | $144.60 | -52% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $49.41 | $12.85 | -74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $92.91 | $35.00 | -62% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNI | $128.22 | $92.63 | -28% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $327.47 | $117.90 | -64% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $259.71 | $144.80 | -44% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.82 | ¥5.65 | +17% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.65 | ¥9.53 | +69% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.85 | ¥6.24 | +29% |
| Hyundai Rotem Company 064350 | 167,700 KRW | 125,182 KRW | -25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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