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Kali Metals Ltd (KM1) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Kali Metals Ltd A$0.02, price A$0.09, upside -73.6%, quality 31 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU

KM Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Kali Metals Ltd

KM1 · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value A$0.0238 · Strongly overvalued (−74%)
!Quality 31/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +27.9 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (3/6)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.7600 A$0.0710 Fair Value A$0.0238 Jan 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

33‑month range A$0.0710 – A$0.7600 · fair‑value band A$0.0143 – A$0.0333 · the A$0.0900 price screens above the A$0.0238 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Kali Metals Limited explores mineral properties in Australia. The company explores for gold, lithium, cesium, and tantalum pegmatite deposits, as well as other critical minerals. Kali Metals Limited was incorporated in 2021 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Kali Metals Ltd (KM1) currently trades at A$0.0900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0238, implying the stock looks roughly 278.2% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 81/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0143 (bear) to A$0.0333 (bull), the price of A$0.0900 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Kali Metals Ltd reported revenue of A$403K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2023. Reported net income was −A$2.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$23.9M (≈ $16.9M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0200 · Return on equity −12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.8% · Operating margin −3,503% · Revenue growth (YoY) +16.5% · Net cash A$9.2M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −74%, KM1 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0143 Fair Value A$0.0238 Bull A$0.0333
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0500 A$0.0700 A$0.1100 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0500 A$0.0700 A$0.1100 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Fin. Strength 94
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 21
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 35
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 32/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 3 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed

KM1 screens 278% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 457 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/5 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Above median
Fair Value upside −75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 17% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.80× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)83 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%
Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co 601958 ¥20.99 ¥12.24 −42%

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Kali Metals Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0238 −278%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kali Metals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KM1

Frequently asked questions

Is Kali Metals Ltd (KM1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0238 versus a price of A$0.0900, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KM1?
Our model-based fair value for Kali Metals Ltd is A$0.0238 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0900.
What is the quality score of KM1?
Kali Metals Ltd has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kali Metals Ltd (KM1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0238 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0143, optimistic scenario A$0.0333. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kali Metals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0238, about −74% upside versus a price of A$0.0900 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0143, optimistic scenario A$0.0333. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Kali Metals Ltd (KM1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kali Metals Ltd it is A$0.0238 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$0.0900. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kali Metals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, KM1 trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0900, fair value A$0.0238, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KM1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0238). For Kali Metals Ltd the two are A$0.0662 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kali Metals Ltd worth?
The market values Kali Metals Ltd at about A$23.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0900; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0238 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KM1?
Our models span a range for Kali Metals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0143, base A$0.0238, optimistic A$0.0333 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$0.0900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kali Metals Ltd (KM1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kali Metals Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −12.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KM1 from its 52-week high?
Kali Metals Ltd trades at A$0.0900, about 60% below its 52-week high of A$0.2250 and 27% above the low of A$0.0710 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0238 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kali Metals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kali Metals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$0.0900, calculated fair value A$0.0238 (−74%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KM1 calculated?
We run Kali Metals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0238, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Kali Metals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kali Metals Ltd (KM1)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0900. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0238, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kali Metals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0333). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (31/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$0.0143 to A$0.0333) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Kali Metals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Kali Metals Ltd (KM1)?
The market capitalisation of Kali Metals Ltd is A$23.9M (≈ $16.9M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Kali Metals Ltd (KM1)?
Earnings per share at Kali Metals Ltd are A$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Kali Metals Ltd (KM1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kali Metals Ltd is −12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kali Metals Ltd (KM1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kali Metals Ltd is −6.8% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kali Metals Ltd (KM1)?
The operating margin of Kali Metals Ltd is −3,503% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kali Metals Ltd (KM1)?
Revenue at Kali Metals Ltd is growing +16.5% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Kali Metals Ltd (KM1) hold?
Kali Metals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$9.2M net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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