Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. $10.05, price $9.10, upside +10.4%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2311 – $10.74 · fair‑value band $7.23 – $13.07 · the $9.10 price screens below the $10.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kumagai Gumi Co.,Ltd. operates as a construction company in Japan and internationally.
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Kumagai Gumi Co.,Ltd. operates as a construction company in Japan and internationally. The company constructs tunnels, roads and bridges, railways, dams, and airports/marine ports, as well as water and sewerage, environmental, energy, renewal, ICT civil engineering, housing/mansion, office/government, hotel, commercial, culture, education/research, sports/entertainment, medical/social welfare, plant, distribution, timber and other projects. It also engages in the production of asphalt mixture and the paving of roads, airports, ports, and bridges; building renovation business, including building survey/diagnosis, antiseismic diagnosis/antiseismic reinforcement, and the formulation of long-term renovation plans, as well as manufacture of steel products for shield tunnels and construction machinery; and operates a leasing business for a steel construction. In addition, the company offers construction and building plans; software services utilizing CAD and information systems to create construction plans, applications, and building plans; education on CAD operations to universities and construction companies; outsourcing services; and insurance agency services. Further, the company operates as a technology trading company for construction industry. Kumagai Gumi Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF) currently trades at $9.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.05, implying the stock looks roughly 9.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.24 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the $9.10 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.15, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $7.23 (bear) to $13.07 (bull), the price of $9.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. reported revenue of ¥488B in FY2026 versus ¥425B in FY2022, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was ¥20.1B in FY2026, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 0.49 · EPS (TTM) $0.7600 · Dividend yield 3.5% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 10%, KMGGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.23Fair Value $10.05Bull $13.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−16.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.5%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.8% a year for the price and +0.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 798 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+10.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.3% · Above median
Return on assets4.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)2.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−5.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
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Is Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.05 versus a price of $9.10, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KMGGF?
Our model-based fair value for Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. is $10.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.10.
What is the quality score of KMGGF?
Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.23, optimistic scenario $13.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.05, about +10% upside versus a price of $9.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.23, optimistic scenario $13.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥482B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. pay a dividend?
Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by -0.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KMGGF use?
Our models discount Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. that is -0.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies -0.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (-0.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.39 %: that much free cash flow Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. it is $10.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $9.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KMGGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.10, fair value $10.05, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KMGGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.05). For Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. the two are $0.9470 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. worth?
The market values Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $9.10; our models calculate a fair value of $10.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KMGGF?
Our models span a range for Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd.: cautious scenario $7.23, base $10.05, optimistic $13.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $9.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KMGGF?
Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $10.05 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 11.3%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KMGGF from its 52-week high?
Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. trades at $9.10, about 15% below its 52-week high of $10.74 and 48% above the low of $6.17 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $9.10, calculated fair value $10.05 (+10%), Quality Score 48/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KMGGF calculated?
We run Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $9.10. Our model-based fair value is $10.05, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. right now?
A fairly wide model range ($7.23 to $13.07) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
The market capitalisation of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. is 0.49 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
Earnings per share at Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. are $0.7600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
The dividend yield of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. is 3.5% (payout 41.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
The net margin of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. is 4.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
The operating margin of Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
Revenue at Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. is growing −5.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. (KMGGF)?
Earnings per share at Kumagai Gumi Company. Ltd. are growing +24.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026