Kumagai Gumi Co (KMGGF) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $1.8B

A solid business, but screening 25% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• Our model range runs from $5.01 (bear) to $8.96 (bull), base $6.78. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 58/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.2311 – $849,355 · fair‑value band $5.01 – $8.96 · the $9.10 price screens above the $6.78 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.

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Analysis

Kumagai Gumi Co (KMGGF) currently trades at $9.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.78, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Kumagai Gumi Co generated revenue of $488B at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue declined 19.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.9%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 14.7. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $5.01 (bear case) to $8.96 (bull case); at $9.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -25%, KMGGF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples ($8.90) versus Earnings-Based ($3.15). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Kumagai Gumi Co.,Ltd. operates as a construction company in Japan and internationally. The company constructs tunnels, roads and bridges, railways, dams, and airports/marine ports, as well as water and sewerage, environmental, energy, renewal, ICT civil engineering, housing/mansion, office/government, hotel, commercial, culture, education/research, …

Full company description

Kumagai Gumi Co.,Ltd. operates as a construction company in Japan and internationally. The company constructs tunnels, roads and bridges, railways, dams, and airports/marine ports, as well as water and sewerage, environmental, energy, renewal, ICT civil engineering, housing/mansion, office/government, hotel, commercial, culture, education/research, sports/entertainment, medical/social welfare, plant, distribution, timber and other projects. It also engages in the production of asphalt mixture and the paving of roads, airports, ports, and bridges; building renovation business, including building survey/diagnosis, antiseismic diagnosis/antiseismic reinforcement, and the formulation of long-term renovation plans, as well as manufacture of steel products for shield tunnels and construction machinery; and operates a leasing business for a steel construction. In addition, the company offers construction and building plans; software services utilizing CAD and information systems to create construction plans, applications, and building plans; education on CAD operations to universities and construction companies; outsourcing services; and insurance agency services. Further, the company operates as a technology trading company for construction industry. Kumagai Gumi Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Kumagai Gumi Co reported revenue of $499B in FY2025 versus $450B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $9.4B in FY2025, compounding −15.0%/yr from FY2021.

KMGGF screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Larsen & Toubro Limited →

Peer Group

Engineering & Construction · 837 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.