Karat Packaging Inc (KRT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Karat Packaging Inc stock $29.42, price $33.54, that is 12.3% below the price, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.19 – $54.68 · fair‑value band $18.55 – $41.46 · the $33.54 price screens above the $29.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Karat Packaging Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and distribution of single-use disposable products in plastic, paper, biopolymer-based, and other compostable forms used in various restaurant and foodservice settings.
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It offers food and take-out containers, bags, boxes, tableware, cups, lids, cutlery, straws, specialty beverage ingredients, gloves, utensils, janitorial and warehouse supplies, and other products under the Karat Earth brand.
The company also distributes food and beverage items, such as syrups, boba tea, and coffee drinks; and provides new product development, design, printing, and logistics services.
It offers its products to national and regional distributors, restaurant chains, retail establishments, and online customers. Karat Packaging Inc. was founded in 2000 and is based in Chino, California.
Stock analysis
Karat Packaging Inc (KRT) currently trades at $33.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.42, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $31.45 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $33.54 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $14.30, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.55 (bear) to $41.46 (bull), the price of $33.54 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Karat Packaging Inc reported revenue of $468M in FY2025 versus $364M in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $31.5M in FY2025, compounding +10.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.0B Small · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 1.36 · EPS (TTM) $2.39 · Dividend yield 5.4% · Net margin 10.2% · Return on equity 30.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 70% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −12%, KRT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$18.55Fair Value $29.42Bull$41.46
Price $33.54 · Downside -12.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.5059 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $599,005 and none bought.
SaleMarvin ChengVP-Manufacturing, Secy, 10% owner3× since Aug 20, 2026: 12,500 shares, avg. $47.92$599,005Sep 8, 2026
BuyJian GuoChief Financial Officer, Director1,361 shares at $22.11$30,092Nov 12, 2025
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 9%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.8% a year for the price and +5.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 261 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)30.6% · Top 25%
Return on assets10.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)8.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.9% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.32× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
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Is Karat Packaging Inc (KRT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $29.42 versus a price of $33.54, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KRT?
Our model-based fair value for Karat Packaging Inc is $29.42 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.54.
What is the quality score of KRT?
Karat Packaging Inc has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $29.42 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.55, optimistic scenario $41.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Karat Packaging Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $29.42, about 12% lower versus a price of $33.54 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $18.55, optimistic scenario $41.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
Karat Packaging Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $493M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Karat Packaging Inc pay a dividend?
Karat Packaging Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 5.37% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Karat Packaging Inc pays a dividend of $1.80 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 21, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. The payout ratio is 75.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.82 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Karat Packaging Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +14.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KRT use?
Our models discount Karat Packaging Inc at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Karat Packaging Inc that is +14.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Karat Packaging Inc (KRT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Karat Packaging Inc grew +9.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +14.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Karat Packaging Inc (+14.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.35 %: that much free cash flow Karat Packaging Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Karat Packaging Inc it is $29.42 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $33.54. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Karat Packaging Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, KRT trades above its calculated fair value: price $33.54, fair value $29.42, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KRT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($33.54); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($29.42). For Karat Packaging Inc the two are $4.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Karat Packaging Inc worth?
The market values Karat Packaging Inc at about $1.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $33.54; our models calculate a fair value of $29.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KRT?
Our models span a range for Karat Packaging Inc: cautious scenario $18.55, base $29.42, optimistic $41.46 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $33.54). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KRT?
Karat Packaging Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $29.42 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 14.8. Other multiples: P/B 6.9, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 21.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Karat Packaging Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 30.6%, debt of 0.32 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KRT from its 52-week high?
Karat Packaging Inc trades at $33.54, about 39% below its 52-week high of $54.68 and 70% above the low of $19.72 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $29.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Karat Packaging Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, Amcor plc, International Paper Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Karat Packaging Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $33.54, calculated fair value $29.42 (−12%), Quality Score 74/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KRT calculated?
We run Karat Packaging Inc through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $29.42 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Karat Packaging Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $33.54. Our model-based fair value is $29.42, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Karat Packaging Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (74/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($18.55 to $41.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Karat Packaging Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
The market capitalisation of Karat Packaging Inc is $1.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Karat Packaging Inc is 1.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
Earnings per share at Karat Packaging Inc are $2.39 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
The dividend yield of Karat Packaging Inc is 5.4% (payout 75.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
The net margin of Karat Packaging Inc is 10.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Karat Packaging Inc is 30.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Karat Packaging Inc is 13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
The operating margin of Karat Packaging Inc is 8.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
Revenue at Karat Packaging Inc is growing +9.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Karat Packaging Inc (KRT)?
Earnings per share at Karat Packaging Inc are growing +170% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Karat Packaging Inc (KRT) carry?
The net debt of Karat Packaging Inc is $42.0M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026