Kapsch TrafficCom AG (KTCG) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · AT · Market cap €74.4M

Below-average quality, and screening another 13% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• A fairly wide model range (€3.11 to €6.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
• Our model range runs from €3.11 (bear) to €6.23 (bull), base €4.17. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
• Quality 44/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €4.60 – €16.94 · fair‑value band €3.11 – €6.23 · the €4.82 price screens above the €4.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 20, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Kapsch TrafficCom AG (KTCG) currently trades at €4.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.17, implying the stock looks roughly 13.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Kapsch TrafficCom AG generated revenue of €427M at a net margin of 0.7%. Revenue declined 21.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.3%. Net debt stands at €70.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €3.11 (bear case) to €6.23 (bull case); at €4.82, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at -13%, KTCG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (€12.71) versus Asset-Based (€4.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Kapsch TrafficCom AG provides intelligent transportation systems technologies, solutions, and services in Austria, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas. The company operates through two segments, Tolling and Traffic Management.

Full company description

Kapsch TrafficCom AG provides intelligent transportation systems technologies, solutions, and services in Austria, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas. The company operates through two segments, Tolling and Traffic Management. It involved in the implementation, and technical and commercial operation of toll collection systems comprising individual road sections and nation-wide road networks; provision of toll services for business and private customers; and implementation and operation of systems and solutions for traffic control and mobility behavior, as well as related components business. The company offers tolling products, such as on-board unit, roadside radio frequency system, roadside video, vehicle enforcement, smart toll, operational backoffice, image processing suite, enforcement and commercial backoffice, and geo location platform; and traffic management products, including traffic control device, roadside unit, connected vehicle platform, connected mobility control center, mobility data platform, deep learning versatile platform, mobility management platform, and advanced traffic management system. The company was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Vienna, Austria. Kapsch TrafficCom AG is a subsidiary of KAPSCH-Group Beteiligungs GmbH.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Kapsch TrafficCom AG reported revenue of €530M in FY2025 versus €505M in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€6.9M in FY2025.

KTCG screens 13% overvalued. Compare with China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings →

Peer Group

Infrastructure Operations · 64 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.