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Kapsch Traffic (KTCG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Kapsch Traffic €12.30, price €4.10, upside +200.0%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · AT · ISIN AT000KAPSCH9

KT Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Kapsch Traffic

KTCG · VI

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value €12.30 · Strongly undervalued (+200%)
!Quality 44/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −6.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/12)
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 13 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€16.94 €4.10 Fair Value €12.30 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €4.10 – €16.94 · fair‑value band €8.10 – €16.60 · the €4.10 price screens below the €12.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Kapsch TrafficCom AG provides intelligent transportation systems technologies, solutions, and services in Austria, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas. The company operates through two segments, Tolling and Traffic Management.

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Kapsch TrafficCom AG provides intelligent transportation systems technologies, solutions, and services in Austria, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas. The company operates through two segments, Tolling and Traffic Management. It involved in the implementation, and technical and commercial operation of toll collection systems comprising individual road sections and nation-wide road networks; provision of toll services for business and private customers; and implementation and operation of systems and solutions for traffic control and mobility behavior, as well as related components business. The company offers tolling products, such as on-board unit, roadside radio frequency system, roadside video, vehicle enforcement, smart toll, operational backoffice, image processing suite, enforcement and commercial backoffice, and geo location platform; and traffic management products, including traffic control device, roadside unit, connected vehicle platform, connected mobility control center, mobility data platform, deep learning versatile platform, mobility management platform, and advanced traffic management system. The company was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Vienna, Austria. Kapsch TrafficCom AG is a subsidiary of KAPSCH-Group Beteiligungs GmbH.

Stock analysis

Kapsch Traffic (KTCG) currently trades at €4.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.30, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €16.21 per share, and 11 of the 11 models we run sit above the €4.10 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €4.17, and 0 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €8.10 (bear) to €16.60 (bull), the price of €4.10 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

Kapsch Traffic reported revenue of €530M in FY2025 versus €505M in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€6.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €74.4M · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 0.17 · EPS (TTM) €0.4000 · Net margin −1.3% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.2% · Operating margin −21.5%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 200%, KTCG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €8.10 Fair Value €12.30 Bull €16.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.4000 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €12.73 €17.42 €22.79 81
Growth DCF €12.93 €17.18 €21.85 80
Owner Earnings €2.89 €4.72 €6.81 76
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €12.73 €17.42 €22.79 81
Owner Earnings €2.89 €4.72 €6.81 76
5Y Revenue Exit €10.38 €15.91 €22.56 72
5Y EBITDA Exit €7.93 €11.59 €15.50 76
10Y Revenue Exit €11.05 €15.68 €21.14 67
10Y EBITDA Exit €10.01 €13.19 €16.77 70
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €5.06 €7.87 €10.69 66
EV/Revenue €9.30 €14.74 €20.19 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €3.11 €4.17 €6.23 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €12.93 €17.18 €21.85 80
Rev-Margin DCF €10.38 €16.21 €22.50 73

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 29
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 24
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 96
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 66
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 9
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 65
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 32/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.5% (2019) → −1.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.2% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 69 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets −7% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −21% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −21% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.08× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.95× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.20× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 4.2× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 11
PAST (return on equity)13 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)46 · sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 81

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Transurban Group TCL A$13.20 A$4.00 −70%
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 ¥9.80 ¥13.02 +33%
Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 ¥12.58 ¥14.47 +15%
Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 ¥10.03 ¥7.88 −21%
Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 HK$5.90 HK$18.14 +207%
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 ¥12.53 ¥13.78 +10%
Anhui Expressway Company 600012 ¥15.43 ¥16.97 +10%
Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 ¥8.04 ¥9.51 +18%
IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited IRB ₹18.03 ₹19.95 +11%
Sichuan Expressway Company 601107 ¥6.01 ¥6.61 +10%

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Kapsch Traffic · Fair Value
€12.30 +67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kapsch Traffic Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KTCG

Frequently asked questions

Is Kapsch Traffic (KTCG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.30 versus a price of €4.10, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KTCG?
Our model-based fair value for Kapsch Traffic is €12.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.10.
What is the quality score of KTCG?
Kapsch Traffic has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.30 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario €8.10, optimistic scenario €16.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kapsch Traffic stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.30, about +200% upside versus a price of €4.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €8.10, optimistic scenario €16.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Kapsch Traffic reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €427M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kapsch Traffic would have to grow free cash flow by -6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -6.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KTCG use?
Our models discount Kapsch Traffic at 12.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.82, country premium for Austria. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kapsch Traffic that is -6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kapsch Traffic (KTCG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kapsch Traffic grew -6.2 % a year. The price currently implies -6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kapsch Traffic (-6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 34.04 %: that much free cash flow Kapsch Traffic produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kapsch Traffic it is €12.30 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €4.10. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kapsch Traffic stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, KTCG trades below its calculated fair value: price €4.10, fair value €12.30, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KTCG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.30). For Kapsch Traffic the two are €8.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kapsch Traffic worth?
The market values Kapsch Traffic at about €74.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €4.10; our models calculate a fair value of €12.30 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KTCG?
Our models span a range for Kapsch Traffic: cautious scenario €8.10, base €12.30, optimistic €16.60 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €4.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KTCG?
Kapsch Traffic trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €12.30 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 0.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kapsch Traffic (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 1.08 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KTCG from its 52-week high?
Kapsch Traffic trades at €4.10, about 45% below its 52-week high of €7.48 and at the low of €4.10 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.30 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kapsch Traffic?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kapsch Traffic stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €4.10, calculated fair value €12.30 (+200%), Quality Score 44/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KTCG calculated?
We run Kapsch Traffic through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €12.30, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Kapsch Traffic currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €4.10. Our model-based fair value is €12.30, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kapsch Traffic right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€8.10). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (€8.10 to €16.60) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Kapsch Traffic

How large is the market capitalisation of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The market capitalisation of Kapsch Traffic is €74.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kapsch Traffic is 0.17 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Earnings per share at Kapsch Traffic are €0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The net margin of Kapsch Traffic is −1.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kapsch Traffic is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kapsch Traffic is −0.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The operating margin of Kapsch Traffic is −21.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Revenue at Kapsch Traffic is growing −21.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Earnings per share at Kapsch Traffic are growing −83.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kapsch Traffic (KTCG) carry?
The net debt of Kapsch Traffic is €70.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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