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Kapsch Traffic (KTCG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kapsch Traffic stock €4.39, price €3.73, upside +17.7%, quality 29 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Industrials AT · ISIN AT000KAPSCH9

KT Kapsch Traffic logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Kapsch Traffic

KTCG · VI
Fairly valued, weak quality

The stock costs 15% less than our calculation considers fair.

Low debt
Fair value €4.39 · Fairly valued
Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
Quality 29/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.1 %/yr in EUR)
Loss-making · -6.9% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 19/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

€16.94 €3.68 Fair Value €4.39 Sep 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €3.68 – €16.94 · fair‑value band €3.29 – €5.49 · the €3.73 price screens below the €4.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Kapsch TrafficCom AG provides intelligent transportation systems technologies, solutions, and services in Austria, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, and the Americas. The company operates through two segments, Tolling and Traffic Management.

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It involved in the implementation, and technical and commercial operation of toll collection systems comprising individual road sections and nation-wide road networks; provision of toll services for business and private customers; and implementation and operation of systems and solutions for traffic control and mobility behavior, as well as related components business.

The company offers tolling products, such as on-board unit, roadside radio frequency system, roadside video, vehicle enforcement, smart toll, operational backoffice, image processing suite, enforcement and commercial backoffice, and geo location platform; and traffic management products, including traffic control device, roadside unit, connected vehicle platform, connected mobility control center, mobility data platform, deep learning versatile platform, mobility management platform, and advanced traffic management system.

The company was founded in 1892 and is headquartered in Vienna, Austria. Kapsch TrafficCom AG is a subsidiary of KAPSCH-Group Beteiligungs GmbH.

Stock analysis

Kapsch Traffic (KTCG) currently trades at €3.73, while our estimate is €4.39, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 15.0%).

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: €3.29 (bear) to €5.49 (bull), the price of €3.73 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Kapsch Traffic reported revenue of €431M in FY2026 versus €520M in FY2022, a compound −4.6%/yr. Reported net income was −€18.7M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap €53.3M Micro · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) €−1.31 · Net margin −4.3% · Return on equity −33.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 2.0% · Revenue (TTM) €435M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 19 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 18%, KTCG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value

Bear €3.29 Fair Value €4.39 Bull €5.49
Price €3.73 · Upside +17.7%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 20
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 6
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 12
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 92
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 69
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 8
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 65
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.0% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−14.9% (2021) → −8.4% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Infrastructure Operations · 63 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/8 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +17.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −4.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −6.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 2.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 4.8% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Infrastructure Operations median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.83× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.12× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)57 · sector 48
FUTURE (revenue growth)24 · sector 1
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 69
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 83

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Infrastructure Operations stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Zhejiang Expressway Co 0576 HK$6.42 HK$16.44 +156% vs KTCG
China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings 001965 ¥10.16 ¥13.02 +28% vs KTCG
Anhui Expressway Company 600012 ¥17.40 ¥19.49 +12% vs KTCG
Sichuan Expressway Company 601107 ¥7.03 ¥7.81 +11% vs KTCG
Shenzhen Expressway Corporation 600548 ¥8.67 ¥9.60 +11% vs KTCG
Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co 000429 ¥13.74 ¥15.10 +10% vs KTCG
Jiangsu Expressway Company 600377 ¥13.94 ¥14.47 +4% vs KTCG
Shandong Hi-speed Company 600350 ¥11.32 ¥8.02 −29% vs KTCG
Transurban Group TCL A$14.77 A$4.92 −67% vs KTCG
CUBEINVIT CUBEINVIT ₹152.48 ₹44.34 −71% vs KTCG

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Kapsch Traffic: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kapsch Traffic Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KTCG

Frequently asked questions

Is Kapsch Traffic (KTCG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is €4.39 versus a price of €3.73, about +18% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of KTCG?
Our estimate for Kapsch Traffic is €4.39 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €3.73.
What is the quality score of KTCG?
Kapsch Traffic has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of €4.39 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario €3.29, optimistic scenario €5.49. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Kapsch Traffic stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at €4.39, about +18% upside versus a price of €3.73 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €3.29, optimistic scenario €5.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Kapsch Traffic reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €435M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kapsch Traffic it is €4.39 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of €3.73.
Is Kapsch Traffic stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, KTCG trades below its calculated fair value: price €3.73, fair value €4.39, a gap of about +18% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KTCG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€3.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.39). For Kapsch Traffic the two are €0.6600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kapsch Traffic worth?
The market values Kapsch Traffic at about €53.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is €3.73; our models calculate a fair value of €4.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KTCG?
Our models span a range for Kapsch Traffic: cautious scenario €3.29, base €4.39, optimistic €5.49 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price €3.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kapsch Traffic (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −33.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KTCG from its 52-week high?
Kapsch Traffic trades at €3.73, about 42% below its 52-week high of €6.40 and 1% above the low of €3.68 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kapsch Traffic?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Transurban Group, China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings, Jiangsu Expressway Company, Shandong Hi-speed Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kapsch Traffic stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price €3.73, calculated fair value €4.39 (+18%), Quality Score 29/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Kapsch Traffic currently trades 15% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was €3.73. Our estimate is €4.39, about +18% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kapsch Traffic right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of Kapsch Traffic

How large is the market capitalisation of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The market capitalisation of Kapsch Traffic is €53.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kapsch Traffic is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Earnings per share at Kapsch Traffic are €−1.31. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The net margin of Kapsch Traffic is −4.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kapsch Traffic is −33.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kapsch Traffic is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
The operating margin of Kapsch Traffic is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Revenue at Kapsch Traffic is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kapsch Traffic (KTCG)?
Earnings per share at Kapsch Traffic are growing −83.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Kapsch Traffic (KTCG) generate?
The free cash flow of Kapsch Traffic is −€13.8M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kapsch Traffic (KTCG) carry?
The net debt of Kapsch Traffic is €86.9M (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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