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KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KWG) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · DE · Market cap €92.9M

KH KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG KWG · XETRA
Price€2.06
Fair Value€2.47
Upside+19.9%
Quality57/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 3.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
Narrow moat 33/100
Evidence: High Range €1.97 – €2.97 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price +10.2% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 20% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • Our model range runs from €1.97 (bear) to €2.97 (bull), base €2.47. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 57/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€2.24 €0.9350 Fair Value €2.47 Jan 2020 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.9350 – €2.24 · fair‑value band €1.97 – €2.97 · the €2.06 price screens below the €2.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KWG) currently trades at €2.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €2.47, implying the stock looks roughly 19.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG generated revenue of €178M at a net margin of 3.9%. Revenue declined 25.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of €23.3M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €1.97 (bear case) to €2.97 (bull case); at €2.06, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -42% fair-value upside, at 20%, KWG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF €2.46 €2.90 €3.55 80
Residual Income €1.51 €1.48 €1.33 76
Rev-Margin DCF €1.99 €2.47 €3.09 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €2.41 €2.88 €3.63 38
Owner Earnings €1.47 €1.68 €2.04 31
5Y Revenue Exit €1.99 €2.42 €3.05 39
5Y EBITDA Exit €2.28 €2.92 €3.77 41
5Y P/E Exit €2.46 €3.24 €4.17 38
10Y Revenue Exit €2.16 €2.47 €2.77 36
10Y EBITDA Exit €2.33 €2.73 €3.14 37
10Y P/E Exit €2.43 €2.90 €3.33 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €0.9500 €1.16 €1.30 54
EPV €1.04 €1.09 €1.13 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple €2.20 €2.93 €3.66 63
P/S Multiple €1.78 €2.37 €2.96 58
P/B Multiple €1.78 €2.37 €2.96 55
EV/EBIT €2.12 €2.62 €3.13 53
EV/EBITDA €2.41 €3.01 €3.61 54
EV/Revenue €1.69 €2.15 €2.61 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.06 €1.42 €2.12 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €2.46 €2.90 €3.55 80
Rev-Margin DCF €1.99 €2.47 €3.09 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income €1.51 €1.48 €1.33 76
ROIC Compounder €1.04 €1.09 €1.13 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €1.55 €2.22 €2.88 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€2.73) versus Earnings-Based (€1.09). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €178M
Revenue growth (YoY) -25.0%
Net margin 3.9%
Return on equity 6.5%
Free cash flow €12.3M FY2025
P/E ratio 14.7
More key figures
Operating margin 1.8%
EPS (TTM) €0.1400
EPS growth (YoY) -67.3%
Net cash €23.3M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 81
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 65
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG provides engineering products and services for the cement industry. It operates through Capex and Plant Services segments.

Full company description

KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG provides engineering products and services for the cement industry. It operates through Capex and Plant Services segments. The Capex segment offers process technology, design, engineering, project management, and the supply of technical equipment including grinding, pyro process, and system automation; and organizes training for cement plant personnel through e-learning program SIMULEX. It also provides equipment for grinding, such as crushing, grinding, and separation equipment, as well as fans; pyro processing, including preheaters, calciner systems, burners, process fans, rotary kilns, and clinker coolers; PYROREDOX, a gasification reactor for reducing emissions; and PYROROTOR, a combustion chamber. The Plant Services segment supplies spare and wear parts; and offers various plant services, including maintenance services comprising refurbishing roller presses, technical inspections and audits, and consulting and assistance services. The company offers Rolcox, a roller press monitoring and control system; Romix-C, an automatic raw meal control system; Scanex-IC, a kiln temperature monitoring solution; and KHD ProMax, a suite of cloud based digital solutions that connects to and delivers real world optimization for cement plant equipment and processes. It operates in India, North America, rest of Asia, China, the Middle East, rest of Europe, Russia, China, South America, Germany, Africa, and internationally. The company was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Cologne, Germany. KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is a subsidiary of AVIC International Engineering Holdings Pte. Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG reported revenue of €178M in FY2025 versus €226M in FY2021, a compound −5.8%/yr. Reported net income was €6.9M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€178M
Latest YoY
−18.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.3%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−2.1%
Revenue −5.8%/yr
FY21 €226M
FY22 €210M
FY23 €225M
FY24 €218M
FY25 €178M
Net income
FY21 −€1.1M
FY22 €283K
FY23 €4.3M
FY24 €10.6M
FY25 €6.9M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KWG

Peer Group

Industrial Distribution · 107 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 57 · Below median
Fair Value upside +20% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -25% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.02× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.60× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 8.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 13.9× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 60 · sector 22
FUTURE 0 · sector 19
PAST 26 · sector 35
HEALTH 100 · sector 91
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 31

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Industrial Distribution stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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W.W. Grainger, Inc GWW $1,305 $613.88 -53%
Fastenal Company FAST $52.22 $20.64 -60%
Ferguson Enterprises Inc FERG $245.18 $148.98 -39%
WESCO International, Inc WCC $364.60 $213.01 -42%
Watsco, Inc WSO $309.41 $268.10 -13%
Toromont Industries Ltd TIH C$218.77 C$127.90 -42%
Applied Industrial Technologies, Inc AIT $352.29 $191.65 -46%
Finning International Inc FTT C$93.86 C$76.38 -19%
Addtech AB ADDTB kr 344.00 kr 156.35 -55%
Core & Main, Inc CNM $46.63 $49.47 +6%

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Frequently asked questions

Is KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KWG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €2.47 versus a price of €2.06, about +20% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KWG?
Our model-based fair value for KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is €2.47 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €2.06.
What is the quality score of KWG?
KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG (KWG)?
KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €178M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of KWG?
The net profit margin of KHD Humboldt Wedag International AG is about 3.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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