Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd $9.96, price $16.45, upside -39.5%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.30 – $117.00 · fair‑value band $5.45 – $15.07 · the $16.45 price screens above the $9.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. engages in aerospace systems, vehicles, energy solutions and marine, precision machinery, and robot businesses in Japan and internationally.
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Kawasaki Heavy Industries, Ltd. engages in aerospace systems, vehicles, energy solutions and marine, precision machinery, and robot businesses in Japan and internationally. The company offers aircrafts, helicopters, aircraft engines and related equipment, related systems, and space products; rail; and marine ships and machinery, watercraft, and marine-technology products. It also provides gas turbines, boilers, industrial steam turbines, water-refrigerant centrifugal chiller, package boilers, gas engines, oil and gas facilities, top pressure recovery turbines, and absorption chiller equipment; and solutions for cogeneration/distributed power, power management, renewable energy, hydrogen road, energy plants, and environment and recycling. In addition, the company offers hydraulic components and systems, robotics, material handling system, general purpose engine, and large size structure; and industrial equipment for defense and securities, construction, factory solutions, industrial plants, and oil and gas facilities. Further, it provides leisure products comprising motorcycle and off-road four wheeler. The company was founded in 1878 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF) currently trades at $16.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.96, 39.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.03 per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the $16.45 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.69, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.45 (bear) to $15.07 (bull), the price of $16.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd reported revenue of ¥2.3T in FY2026 versus ¥1.5T in FY2022, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥109B in FY2026, compounding +71.3%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $13.7B · P/E ratio 20.3 · P/S ratio 0.95 · EPS (TTM) $0.8100 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 4.7% · Return on equity 13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 86% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −39%, KWHIF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.45Fair Value $9.96Bull $15.07
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+57.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+55.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.47.4% vs 9.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 6%
2026 sits 106% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.9% a year for the price and +4.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (54 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 361 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−26.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)20.3× · Pricier than median
P/B2.22× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.85× · Pricier than median
P/FCF44.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 39
FUTURE (revenue growth)77· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)54· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)24· sector 43
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KWHIF
Frequently asked questions
Is Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.96 versus a price of $16.45, about −39% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KWHIF?
Our model-based fair value for Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd is $9.96 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.45.
What is the quality score of KWHIF?
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.96 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.45, optimistic scenario $15.07. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.96, about −39% upside versus a price of $16.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.45, optimistic scenario $15.07. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥2.3T (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd pay a dividend?
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +27.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.3 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KWHIF use?
Our models discount Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd that is +27.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd grew +9.3 % a year. The price currently implies +27.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (+27.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.04 %: that much free cash flow Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd it is $9.96 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $16.45. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, KWHIF trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.45, fair value $9.96, a gap of about −39% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KWHIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.96). For Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd the two are $6.49 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd worth?
The market values Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd at about $13.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $16.45; our models calculate a fair value of $9.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KWHIF?
Our models span a range for Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd: cautious scenario $5.45, base $9.96, optimistic $15.07 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $16.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KWHIF?
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 9.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 13.5%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KWHIF from its 52-week high?
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd trades at $16.45, about 86% below its 52-week high of $117.00 and 10% above the low of $14.90 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Swire Pacific Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $16.45, calculated fair value $9.96 (−39%), Quality Score 46/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KWHIF calculated?
We run Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $16.45. Our model-based fair value is $9.96, about −39% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.07). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($5.45 to $15.07). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF) come from?
Earnings per share at Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd grew +6.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.7 %, EBIT margin −0.7 %, tax rate +2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
The market capitalisation of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd is $13.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd is 0.95 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
Earnings per share at Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd are $0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
The dividend yield of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd is 1.2% (payout 24.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
The net margin of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd is 4.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
The operating margin of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
Revenue at Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd is growing +15.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF)?
Earnings per share at Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd are growing +12.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd (KWHIF) carry?
The net debt of Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd is ¥750B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 16.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026