Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. TRY 3.05, price TRY 1.42, upside +114.8%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.9948 TRY – 6.56 TRY · fair‑value band 2.72 TRY – 3.48 TRY · the 1.42 TRY price screens below the 3.05 TRY fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. operates as real estate investment trust in Turkey. The company is based in Istanbul, Turkey.
Stock analysis
Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY) currently trades at 1.42 TRY, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3.05 TRY, implying the stock looks roughly 53.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 3.67 TRY per share, and 14 of the 14 models we run sit above the 1.42 TRY price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 2.87 TRY, and 0 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2.72 TRY (bear) to 3.48 TRY (bull), the price of 1.42 TRY sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. reported revenue of 1.9B TRY in FY2025 versus 0 TRY in FY2022. Reported net income was 853M TRY in FY2025, compounding −35.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 8.1B TRY (≈ $166M) · P/E ratio 7.1 · P/S ratio 3.13 · EPS (TTM) 0.2000 TRY · Net margin 44.1% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% · Operating margin 41.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 115%, KZBGY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2.72 TRYFair Value 3.05 TRYBull 3.48 TRY
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1479 TRY per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.37/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in TRY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in TRY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−72.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−72.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Growth Forecast
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Turkey: IMF forecast 19.3% a year to 2030, 28.5% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.1% a year for the price.
Compare Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Hotel & Motel · 36 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+114.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.8% · Above median
Return on assets2.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)48.6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)41.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−39.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Hotel & Motel median · lower = cheaper
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Is Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3.05 TRY versus a price of 1.42 TRY, about +115% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KZBGY?
Our model-based fair value for Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is 3.05 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.42 TRY.
What is the quality score of KZBGY?
Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3.05 TRY (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2.72 TRY, optimistic scenario 3.48 TRY. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3.05 TRY, about +115% upside versus a price of 1.42 TRY (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2.72 TRY, optimistic scenario 3.48 TRY. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.6B TRY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. would have to grow free cash flow by +8.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KZBGY use?
Our models discount Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. at 15.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.38, country premium for Turkey. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. that is +8.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How fast is the sector of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (+8.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.27 %: that much free cash flow Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. it is 3.05 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 1.42 TRY. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, KZBGY trades below its calculated fair value: price 1.42 TRY, fair value 3.05 TRY, a gap of about +115% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KZBGY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.42 TRY); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3.05 TRY). For Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. the two are 1.63 TRY per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. worth?
The market values Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. at about 8.1B TRY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 1.42 TRY; our models calculate a fair value of 3.05 TRY per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KZBGY?
Our models span a range for Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S.: cautious scenario 2.72 TRY, base 3.05 TRY, optimistic 3.48 TRY per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 1.42 TRY). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KZBGY?
Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3.05 TRY is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 5.0, EV/EBITDA 8.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 3.8%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KZBGY from its 52-week high?
Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. trades at 1.42 TRY, about 72% below its 52-week high of 5.12 TRY and at the low of 1.42 TRY (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3.05 TRY is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc, Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc, COVH, Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 1.42 TRY, calculated fair value 3.05 TRY (+115%), Quality Score 46/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KZBGY calculated?
We run Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3.05 TRY, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. currently trades 115 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was 1.42 TRY. Our model-based fair value is 3.05 TRY, about +115% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (2.72 TRY). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S.
How large is the market capitalisation of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
The market capitalisation of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is 8.1B TRY (≈ $166M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is 3.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
Earnings per share at Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. are 0.2000 TRY (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
The net margin of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is 44.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is 3.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
The operating margin of Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is 41.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
Revenue at Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. is growing −39.2% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (KZBGY)?
Earnings per share at Kizilbük Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. are growing −44.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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