nLIGHT Inc (LASR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 23, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of nLIGHT Inc stock $3.52, price $36.34, upside -90.3%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.44 – $84.95 · fair‑value band $3.03 – $4.00 · the $36.34 price screens above the $3.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 24, 2026.
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nLIGHT, Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of semiconductor and fiber lasers for aerospace and defense, industrial, and microfabrication applications. It operates through two segments, Laser Products and Advanced Development.
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The company offers semiconductor lasers with various ranges of power levels, wavelengths, and output fiber sizes; and programmable and serviceable fiber lasers for use in aerospace and defense and industrial applications.
It also provides fiber amplifiers, beam combination, and control systems for use in high-energy laser systems in directed energy applications.
The company sells its products through direct sales force in the United States, China, South Korea, and European countries, as well as through independent sales representatives and distributors in Asia, Australia, Europe, the Middle East, and South America.
The company was formerly known as nLight Photonics Corporation and changed its name to nLIGHT, Inc. in January 2016. nLIGHT, Inc. was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Camas, Washington.
Stock analysis
nLIGHT Inc (LASR) currently trades at $36.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.52, 90.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $4.19 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $36.34 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.63, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $3.03 (bear) to $4.00 (bull), the price of $36.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
nLIGHT Inc reported revenue of $261M in FY2025 versus $270M in FY2021, a compound −0.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$23.5M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B Mid · P/S ratio 6.70 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2400 · Net margin −4.0% · Return on equity −3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.5% · Operating margin −4.3% · Revenue (TTM) $311M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −90%, LASR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.03Fair Value $3.52Bull$4.00
Price $36.34 · Upside -90.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$3.61$4.16$4.8082
Growth DCF$3.64$4.14$4.7080
5Y Revenue Exit$3.56$4.38$5.3774
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$3.61$4.16$4.8082
5Y Revenue Exit$3.56$4.38$5.3774
10Y Revenue Exit$3.52$4.19$4.9768
Multiples
EV/Revenue$3.02$3.85$4.6954
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.74$2.63$3.2955
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$3.64$4.14$4.7080
Rev-Margin DCF$3.56$4.41$5.3174
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+31.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9.4% (2020) → −10.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+59.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +55.7% a year for the price and +10.1% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 350 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−90.3% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−7.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−4.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−4.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)33.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/B9.13× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)6.67× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow168.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.78× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 96
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "nLIGHT Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LASR
Frequently asked questions
Is nLIGHT Inc (LASR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.52 versus a price of $36.34, about −90% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LASR?
Our model-based fair value for nLIGHT Inc is $3.52 (as of Oct 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.34.
What is the quality score of LASR?
nLIGHT Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.52 (as of Oct 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.03, optimistic scenario $4.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the nLIGHT Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.52, about −90% upside versus a price of $36.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.03, optimistic scenario $4.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
nLIGHT Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $311M (latest available figure, as of Oct 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, nLIGHT Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +59.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Oct 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LASR use?
Our models discount nLIGHT Inc at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For nLIGHT Inc that is +59.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has nLIGHT Inc (LASR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at nLIGHT Inc grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +59.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of nLIGHT Inc (LASR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into nLIGHT Inc (+59.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.59 %: that much free cash flow nLIGHT Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For nLIGHT Inc it is $3.52 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026), against a price of $36.34. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is nLIGHT Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 24, 2026, LASR trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.34, fair value $3.52, a gap of about −90% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LASR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.52). For nLIGHT Inc the two are $32.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is nLIGHT Inc worth?
The market values nLIGHT Inc at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 24, 2026). Per share that is $36.34; our models calculate a fair value of $3.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LASR?
Our models span a range for nLIGHT Inc: cautious scenario $3.03, base $3.52, optimistic $4.00 per share (as of Oct 24, 2026, price $36.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LASR?
The PEG ratio of nLIGHT Inc is 1.78 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
Balance-sheet figures for nLIGHT Inc (as of Oct 24, 2026): return on equity −3.8%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LASR from its 52-week high?
nLIGHT Inc trades at $36.34, about 57% below its 52-week high of $84.95 and 27% above the low of $28.60 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to nLIGHT Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is nLIGHT Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 24, 2026: price $36.34, calculated fair value $3.52 (−90%), Quality Score 53/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LASR calculated?
We run nLIGHT Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.5 % above its aggregate fair value. nLIGHT Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
The closing price on Oct 23, 2026 was $36.34. Our model-based fair value is $3.52, about −90% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with nLIGHT Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of nLIGHT Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
The market capitalisation of nLIGHT Inc is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of nLIGHT Inc is 6.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
Earnings per share at nLIGHT Inc are $−0.2400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
The net margin of nLIGHT Inc is −4.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of nLIGHT Inc is −3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of nLIGHT Inc is −14.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
The operating margin of nLIGHT Inc is −4.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at nLIGHT Inc (LASR)?
Revenue at nLIGHT Inc is growing +33.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does nLIGHT Inc (LASR) hold?
nLIGHT Inc holds more cash than debt, $62.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 24, 2026