Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Tidewater Renewables Ltd C$4.12, price C$22.96, upside -82.1%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value C$4.12 · Strongly overvalued (−82.1%)
!Quality 43/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +126.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 0.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(3/12)
!Narrow moat34/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.6100 – C$23.20 · fair‑value band C$2.89 – C$5.36 · the C$22.96 price screens above the C$4.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Tidewater Renewables Ltd. engages in production of renewable fuel in North America. Its flagship asset is the renewable diesel & renewable hydrogen complex that is located adjacent to the Prince George Refinery. It intends to focus on the production of low carbon fuels, including renewable diesel, renewable hydrogen, and renewable natural gas.
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Tidewater Renewables Ltd. engages in production of renewable fuel in North America. Its flagship asset is the renewable diesel & renewable hydrogen complex that is located adjacent to the Prince George Refinery. It intends to focus on the production of low carbon fuels, including renewable diesel, renewable hydrogen, and renewable natural gas. Tidewater Renewables Ltd. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. Tidewater Renewables Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.
Stock analysis
Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS) currently trades at C$22.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$4.12, implying the stock looks roughly 457.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$6.93 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the C$22.96 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at C$1.63, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$2.89 (bear) to C$5.36 (bull), the price of C$22.96 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Tidewater Renewables Ltd reported revenue of C$248M in FY2025 versus C$23.1M in FY2021, a compound +81.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$3.5M in FY2025, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$870M (≈ $614M) · P/S ratio 1.88 · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 0.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1% · Operating margin 11.9% · Revenue (TTM) C$371M · Revenue growth (YoY) +118%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 501% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −39% fair-value upside, at −82%, LCFS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (C$1.08 to C$15.13). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear C$2.89Fair Value C$4.12Bull C$5.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−41.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+48.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+126.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+70.6%
’18
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’20
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’22
’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−248% → 5%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+57.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +53.8% a year for the price and +6.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Tidewater Renewables Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 708 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−82.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets5.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth118.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.25× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.95× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.65× · Pricier than median
P/FCF109.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA15.3× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)1· sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)38· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$4.12 versus a price of C$22.96, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LCFS?
Our model-based fair value for Tidewater Renewables Ltd is C$4.12 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$22.96.
What is the quality score of LCFS?
Tidewater Renewables Ltd has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$4.12 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$2.89, optimistic scenario C$5.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tidewater Renewables Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$4.12, about −82% upside versus a price of C$22.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$2.89, optimistic scenario C$5.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
Tidewater Renewables Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$371M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tidewater Renewables Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +57.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +126.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LCFS use?
Our models discount Tidewater Renewables Ltd at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.74, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tidewater Renewables Ltd that is +57.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tidewater Renewables Ltd grew +126.5 % a year. The price currently implies +57.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tidewater Renewables Ltd (+57.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.64 %: that much free cash flow Tidewater Renewables Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tidewater Renewables Ltd it is C$4.12 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$22.96. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tidewater Renewables Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, LCFS trades above its calculated fair value: price C$22.96, fair value C$4.12, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LCFS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$22.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$4.12). For Tidewater Renewables Ltd the two are C$18.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tidewater Renewables Ltd worth?
The market values Tidewater Renewables Ltd at about C$870M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$22.96; our models calculate a fair value of C$4.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LCFS?
Our models span a range for Tidewater Renewables Ltd: cautious scenario C$2.89, base C$4.12, optimistic C$5.36 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$22.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tidewater Renewables Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 0.2%, debt of 1.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LCFS from its 52-week high?
Tidewater Renewables Ltd trades at C$22.96, about 1% below its 52-week high of C$23.20 and 501% above the low of C$3.82 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$4.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tidewater Renewables Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tidewater Renewables Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$22.96, calculated fair value C$4.12 (−82%), Quality Score 43/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LCFS calculated?
We run Tidewater Renewables Ltd through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$4.12, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Tidewater Renewables Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$22.96. Our model-based fair value is C$4.12, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tidewater Renewables Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$5.36). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (C$2.89 to C$5.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tidewater Renewables Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
The market capitalisation of Tidewater Renewables Ltd is C$870M (≈ $614M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tidewater Renewables Ltd is 1.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
The net margin of Tidewater Renewables Ltd is 1.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tidewater Renewables Ltd is 0.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tidewater Renewables Ltd is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
The operating margin of Tidewater Renewables Ltd is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
Revenue at Tidewater Renewables Ltd is growing +118% versus a year earlier (3y avg +48.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS)?
Earnings per share at Tidewater Renewables Ltd are growing −62.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS) carry?
The net debt of Tidewater Renewables Ltd is C$199M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 35.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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