Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$552M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +41.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$2.71). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.6100 – C$20.69 · fair‑value band C$1.65 – C$2.71 · the C$20.69 price screens above the C$2.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Tidewater Renewables Ltd (LCFS) currently trades at C$20.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$2.71, implying the stock looks roughly 86.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Tidewater Renewables Ltd generated revenue of C$284M at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue grew 62.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. Net debt stands at C$199M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$1.65 (bear case) to C$2.71 (bull case); at C$20.69, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -68% fair-value upside, at -87%, LCFS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$4.19) versus DCF Models (C$0.8800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 83
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. engages in production of renewable fuel in North America. Its flagship asset is the renewable diesel & renewable hydrogen complex that is located adjacent to the Prince George Refinery. It intends to focus on the production of low carbon fuels, including renewable diesel, renewable hydrogen, and renewable natural gas.
Full company description
Tidewater Renewables Ltd. engages in production of renewable fuel in North America. Its flagship asset is the renewable diesel & renewable hydrogen complex that is located adjacent to the Prince George Refinery. It intends to focus on the production of low carbon fuels, including renewable diesel, renewable hydrogen, and renewable natural gas. Tidewater Renewables Ltd. was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. Tidewater Renewables Ltd. operates as a subsidiary of Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tidewater Renewables Ltd reported revenue of C$248M in FY2025 versus C$23.1M in FY2021, a compound +81.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$3.5M in FY2025, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2021.
LCFS screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 671 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $479.43 | $222.03 | -54% |
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| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,756 | ₹664.51 | -76% |
| Solar Industries India Limited SOLARINDS | ₹18,730 | ₹2,793 | -85% |
| Pidilite Industries Limited PIDILITIND | ₹1,702 | ₹351.84 | -79% |
| PT Chandra Asri Pacific Tbk TPIA | 2,160 IDR | 2,322 IDR | +8% |
| Berger Paints India Limited BERGEPAINT | ₹559.80 | ₹154.46 | -72% |
| Gujarat Fluorochemicals Limited FLUOROCHEM | ₹4,566 | ₹836.47 | -82% |
| Himadri Speciality Chemical Limited HSCL | ₹778.15 | ₹248.63 | -68% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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