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Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Lincoln Minerals Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Sep 13, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU000000LML2

LM Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Lincoln Minerals Ltd

LML · AU

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value A$0.0077 · Overvalued (−30%)
!Quality 28/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +72.5 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/7)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.0639 A$0.0029 Fair Value A$0.0077 Mar 2017 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0029 – A$0.0639 · the A$0.0110 price screens above the A$0.0077 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Lincoln Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. It primarily explores for graphite, copper, silver, cobalt, iron ore, uranium, manganese, magnetite, hematite-goethite, zinc, lead, and base metal deposits.

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Lincoln Minerals Limited engages in the exploration and development of mineral properties in Australia. It primarily explores for graphite, copper, silver, cobalt, iron ore, uranium, manganese, magnetite, hematite-goethite, zinc, lead, and base metal deposits. The company's flagship project includes the Kookaburra Gully graphite project located on the Eyre Peninsula of South Australia. Lincoln Minerals Limited was incorporated in 1974 and is based in Adelaide, Australia.

Stock analysis

Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML) currently trades at A$0.0110, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0077, implying the stock looks roughly 42.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Lincoln Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$602K in FY2025 versus A$55.0K in FY2021, a compound +81.9%/yr. Reported net income was −A$2.3M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$29.6M (≈ $20.8M) · P/S ratio 49.2 · Net margin −278% · Return on equity −24.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −27.8% · Operating margin −275% · Revenue (TTM) A$602K · Revenue growth (YoY) −74.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −30%, LML screens richer than that median.

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 66
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 46
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 44
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 24/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+379.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+72.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+27.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−2,321.6% (2020) → −379.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

LML screens 43% overvalued. Compare with Vale S.A →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 456 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −30% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −15% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −75% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.23× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 34.54× · Priciest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vale S.A XVALO €12.26 €8.03 −35%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 62.70 SAR 68.97 SAR +10%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥17.66 ¥20.07 +14%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥60.26 ¥31.23 −48%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹595.45 ₹655.00 +10%
Korea Zinc Company 010130 1,116,000 KRW 646,063 KRW −42%
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥36.77 ¥40.45 +10%
Boliden AB BOL kr 539.40 kr 464.47 −14%
Xiamen Tungsten Co 600549 ¥49.34 ¥24.75 −50%
PLS Group PLS A$4.18 A$6.65 +59%

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Lincoln Minerals Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0077 −43%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lincoln Minerals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LML

Frequently asked questions

Is Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0077 versus a price of A$0.0110, about −30% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LML?
Our model-based fair value for Lincoln Minerals Ltd is A$0.0077 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0110.
What is the quality score of LML?
Lincoln Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0077 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 3 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lincoln Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0077, about −30% upside versus a price of A$0.0110 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
Lincoln Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$602K (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lincoln Minerals Ltd it is A$0.0077 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$0.0110. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lincoln Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, LML trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.0110, fair value A$0.0077, a gap of about −30% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LML?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0110); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0077). For Lincoln Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.0033 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lincoln Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Lincoln Minerals Ltd at about A$29.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0110; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0077 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lincoln Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −24.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LML from its 52-week high?
Lincoln Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.0110, about 48% below its 52-week high of A$0.0210 and 83% above the low of A$0.0060 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0077 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lincoln Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Vale S.A, Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lincoln Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$0.0110, calculated fair value A$0.0077 (−30%), Quality Score 28/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LML calculated?
We run Lincoln Minerals Ltd through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0077, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Lincoln Minerals Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0110. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0077, about −30% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lincoln Minerals Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0077). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Lincoln Minerals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
The market capitalisation of Lincoln Minerals Ltd is A$29.6M (≈ $20.8M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lincoln Minerals Ltd is 49.2 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
The net margin of Lincoln Minerals Ltd is −278% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lincoln Minerals Ltd is −24.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lincoln Minerals Ltd is −27.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
The operating margin of Lincoln Minerals Ltd is −275% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML)?
Revenue at Lincoln Minerals Ltd is growing −74.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +380%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML) generate?
The free cash flow of Lincoln Minerals Ltd is −A$2.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Lincoln Minerals Ltd (LML) hold?
Lincoln Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$621K net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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