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Li Ning Company (LNNGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Li Ning Company $3.68, price $1.55, upside +137.4%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026
Some data
Sep 23, 2026
Li Ning Company
LNNGF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $3.68 · Strongly undervalued (+137.4%)
✓Quality 71/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +14.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.8% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 49/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3238 – $11.89 · fair‑value band $2.76 – $4.60 · the $1.55 price screens below the $3.68 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Li Ning Company Limited, a sports brand company, engages in the research and development, design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and retail of sporting goods in the People's Republic of China and internationally.
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Li Ning Company Limited, a sports brand company, engages in the research and development, design, manufacture, marketing, distribution, and retail of sporting goods in the People's Republic of China and internationally. The company offers sporting goods, including professional and leisure footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the LI-NING brand. It also develops, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells outdoor sports products under the AIGLE brand; table tennis products under the Double Happiness brand name; and badminton products under the Kason brand name. In addition, the company provides brand licensing, administrative, research and development, and property management services. Further, it operates conventional stores, flagship stores, China LI-NING stores, factory outlets, and multi-brand stores under the LI-NING brand. Li Ning Company Limited was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Li Ning Company (LNNGF) currently trades at $1.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.68, implying the stock looks roughly 57.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $5.49 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the $1.55 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.08, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.76 (bear) to $4.60 (bull), the price of $1.55 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Li Ning Company reported revenue of 28.8B CNY in FY2025 versus 22.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound +6.3%/yr. Reported net income was 2.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding −8.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $5.5B · P/E ratio 9.1 · P/S ratio 0.90 · EPS (TTM) $0.1700 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 9.9% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 39% fair-value upside, at 137%, LNNGF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.76
Fair Value $3.68
Bull $4.60
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$4.33
$6.86
$11.08
79
Growth DCF
$4.30
$6.60
$10.29
77
Residual Income
$1.42
$1.57
$1.96
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$4.33
$6.86
$11.08
79
Owner Earnings
$3.13
$4.76
$7.47
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$3.03
$4.21
$5.75
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$3.65
$5.49
$7.75
75
5Y P/E Exit
$3.79
$5.77
$8.00
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$3.41
$4.66
$6.48
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
$3.86
$5.58
$8.11
68
10Y P/E Exit
$3.95
$5.78
$8.31
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.14
$5.21
$7.14
64
Lynch FV
$1.37
$1.95
$2.54
61
PEG = 1.0
$1.37
$1.95
$2.54
57
EPV
$2.23
$2.43
$2.60
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.7000
$1.40
$2.12
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.7000
$1.21
$1.47
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.76
$3.68
$4.60
63
P/S Multiple
$1.52
$2.03
$2.53
58
P/B Multiple
$2.13
$2.85
$3.56
55
EV/EBIT
$3.80
$4.75
$5.69
66
EV/EBITDA
$3.52
$4.36
$5.21
67
EV/Revenue
$2.40
$3.00
$3.61
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.8100
$1.08
$1.62
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$4.30
$6.60
$10.29
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$3.03
$4.22
$5.75
73
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$1.42
$1.57
$1.96
76
ROIC Compounder
$2.39
$2.85
$3.42
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$2.25
$3.22
$4.19
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
71/100
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Profitability
53
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
79
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.1% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.3% vs 22.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−33.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −34.6% a year for the price and +4.8% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+10.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.8%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Leisure · 172 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Leisure median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Leisure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pop Mart International Group 9992 | HK$149.20 | HK$206.97 | +39% |
| ANTA Sports Products Limited 2020 | HK$71.20 | HK$166.89 | +134% |
| Amer Sports, Inc AS | $27.77 | $19.30 | −31% |
| Hasbro, Inc HAS | $89.98 | $85.98 | −4% |
| Life Time Group LTH | $39.97 | $15.55 | −61% |
| Ninebot Limited 689009 | ¥37.06 | ¥108.20 | +192% |
| Acushnet Holdings GOLF | $83.02 | $43.08 | −48% |
| Mattel, Inc MAT | $13.29 | $21.66 | +63% |
| Fluidra, S.A FDR | €17.68 | €19.68 | +11% |
| Planet Fitness, Inc PLNT | $42.68 | $65.72 | +54% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Li Ning Company (LNNGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.68 versus a price of $1.55, about +137% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LNNGF?
Our model-based fair value for Li Ning Company is $3.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.55.
What is the quality score of LNNGF?
Li Ning Company has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.68 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.76, optimistic scenario $4.60. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Li Ning Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.68, about +137% upside versus a price of $1.55 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $2.76, optimistic scenario $4.60. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
Li Ning Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 29.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Li Ning Company pay a dividend?
Li Ning Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.81% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Li Ning Company would have to grow free cash flow by -33.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LNNGF use?
Our models discount Li Ning Company at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Li Ning Company that is -33.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Li Ning Company (LNNGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Li Ning Company grew +14.8 % a year. The price currently implies -33.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Li Ning Company (LNNGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Li Ning Company (-33.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.10 %: that much free cash flow Li Ning Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Li Ning Company it is $3.68 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.55. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Li Ning Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LNNGF trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.55, fair value $3.68, a gap of about +137% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LNNGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.68). For Li Ning Company the two are $2.13 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Li Ning Company worth?
The market values Li Ning Company at about $5.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.55; our models calculate a fair value of $3.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LNNGF?
Our models span a range for Li Ning Company: cautious scenario $2.76, base $3.68, optimistic $4.60 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LNNGF?
Li Ning Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.68 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.3.
What is the PEG ratio of LNNGF?
The PEG ratio of Li Ning Company is 1.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Li Ning Company (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LNNGF from its 52-week high?
Li Ning Company trades at $1.55, about 45% below its 52-week high of $2.81 and at the low of $1.55 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Li Ning Company?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Pop Mart International Group, ANTA Sports Products Limited, Amer Sports, Inc, Hasbro, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Li Ning Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.55, calculated fair value $3.68 (+137%), Quality Score 71/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LNNGF calculated?
We run Li Ning Company through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Li Ning Company currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $1.55. Our model-based fair value is $3.68, about +137% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Li Ning Company right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($2.76). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Where does the earnings growth of Li Ning Company (LNNGF) come from?
Earnings per share at Li Ning Company grew +27.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +14.6 %, EBIT margin +16.0 %, tax rate −2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Li Ning Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
The market capitalisation of Li Ning Company is $5.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Li Ning Company is 0.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
Earnings per share at Li Ning Company are $0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
The dividend yield of Li Ning Company is 3.8% (payout 34.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
The net margin of Li Ning Company is 9.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Li Ning Company is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Li Ning Company is 12.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
The operating margin of Li Ning Company is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
Revenue at Li Ning Company is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Li Ning Company (LNNGF)?
Earnings per share at Li Ning Company are growing +12.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Li Ning Company (LNNGF) hold?
Li Ning Company holds more cash than debt, 14.6B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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