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ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. $2.91, price $15.06, upside -80.7%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
ContextLogic Holdings Inc.
LOGC · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $2.91 · Strongly overvalued (−80.7%)
!Quality 46/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −50.6 %/yr)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/7)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.67 – $367.20 · fair‑value band $1.92 – $3.63 · the $15.06 price screens above the $2.91 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Company profile
ContextLogic Holdings Inc. focuses on seeking to develop and grow a de novo business and finance potential future bolt-on acquisitions of assets or businesses. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.
Stock analysis
ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC) currently trades at $15.06, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.91, 80.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $1.92 (bear) to $3.63 (bull), the price of $15.06 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
ContextLogic Holdings Inc. reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021. Reported net income was −$29.0M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $682M · EPS (TTM) $−1.88 · Return on equity −4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −44.2% · Operating margin −0.6% · Revenue (TTM) −$100K · Revenue growth (YoY) −0.6% · EPS growth (YoY) +199%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 114% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −81%, LOGC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.92
Fair Value $2.91
Bull $3.63
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham)
$1.45
$1.95
$2.91
51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.45
$1.95
$2.91
51
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
46/100
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Profitability
0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
98
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
36
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
99
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
25
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−85.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−72.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−50.6%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−37.1%
’17
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’20
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−9.9% (2019) → −183.7% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
LOGC screens overvalued: fair value 81% below the price. Compare with Amazon.com, Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (80 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
- ContextLogic Holdings Inc. Publishes Q&A Following Second Quarter 2026 Results
- ContextLogic to Acquire gChem for $850 Million
- ContextLogic appoints Cantaloupe alum to dual CFO, COO seat
- ContextLogic GAAP EPS of $0.33, revenue of $32.4M
Compare ContextLogic Holdings Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 97 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Consumer Discretionary sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Internet Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com, Inc AMZN | $249.15 | $127.33 | −49% |
| Alibaba Group BABA | $107.54 | $66.62 | −38% |
| MercadoLibre, Inc MELI | $1,725 | $1,897 | +10% |
| Prosus N.V PRX | €34.82 | €51.24 | +47% |
| DoorDash, Inc DASH | $178.39 | $196.23 | +10% |
| Sea Limited SE | $95.27 | $129.32 | +36% |
| eBay Inc EBAY | $107.32 | $118.05 | +10% |
| JD.com, Inc JD | $26.30 | $33.32 | +27% |
| Coupang, Inc CPNG | $13.88 | $4.96 | −64% |
| Wayfair Inc W | $102.56 | $34.72 | −66% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.91 versus a price of $15.06, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LOGC?
Our model-based fair value for ContextLogic Holdings Inc. is $2.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $15.06.
What is the quality score of LOGC?
ContextLogic Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.91 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.92, optimistic scenario $3.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ContextLogic Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.91, about −81% upside versus a price of $15.06 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.92, optimistic scenario $3.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ContextLogic Holdings Inc. it is $2.91 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $15.06. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ContextLogic Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LOGC trades above its calculated fair value: price $15.06, fair value $2.91, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LOGC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($15.06); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.91). For ContextLogic Holdings Inc. the two are $12.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ContextLogic Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values ContextLogic Holdings Inc. at about $682M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $15.06; our models calculate a fair value of $2.91 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LOGC?
Our models span a range for ContextLogic Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $1.92, base $2.91, optimistic $3.63 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $15.06). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC)?
Balance-sheet figures for ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LOGC from its 52-week high?
ContextLogic Holdings Inc. trades at $15.06, about 1% below its 52-week high of $15.18 and 114% above the low of $7.05 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.91 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ContextLogic Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, Prosus N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ContextLogic Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $15.06, calculated fair value $2.91 (−81%), Quality Score 46/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LOGC calculated?
We run ContextLogic Holdings Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.91, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ContextLogic Holdings Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $15.06. Our model-based fair value is $2.91, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ContextLogic Holdings Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.92 to $3.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of ContextLogic Holdings Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC)?
The market capitalisation of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. is $682M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC)?
Earnings per share at ContextLogic Holdings Inc. are $−1.88. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. is −4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. is −44.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC)?
The operating margin of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. is −0.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC) generate?
ContextLogic Holdings Inc. generates revenue of −$100K (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC)?
Revenue at ContextLogic Holdings Inc. is growing −0.6% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC)?
Earnings per share at ContextLogic Holdings Inc. are growing +199% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC) generate?
The free cash flow of ContextLogic Holdings Inc. is −$16.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does ContextLogic Holdings Inc. (LOGC) hold?
ContextLogic Holdings Inc. holds more cash than debt, $66.0M net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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