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Lonking Holdings (LONKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Lonking Holdings $0.72, price $0.39, upside +84.6%, quality 69 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Lonking Holdings
LONKF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $0.7200 · Strongly undervalued (+84.6%)
✓Quality 69/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Moderate moat 52/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0327 – $0.3900 · fair‑value band $0.5500 – $0.9400 · the $0.3900 price screens below the $0.7200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Lonking Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes wheel loaders, road rollers, excavators, forklifts, and other construction machinery in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through three segments: Sale of Construction Machinery, Finance Lease of Construction Machinery, and Financial Investment.
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Lonking Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, manufactures and distributes wheel loaders, road rollers, excavators, forklifts, and other construction machinery in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through three segments: Sale of Construction Machinery, Finance Lease of Construction Machinery, and Financial Investment. The company is also involved in the manufacture and distribution of axles and gear boxes, as well as distribution of oil products. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Stock analysis
Lonking Holdings (LONKF) currently trades at $0.3900, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7200, implying the stock looks roughly 45.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $0.7900 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.3900 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.2000, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $0.5500 (bear) to $0.9400 (bull), the price of $0.3900 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Lonking Holdings reported revenue of 10.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 13.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound −5.5%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3B CNY in FY2025, compounding −0.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 1.13 · EPS (TTM) $0.0400 · Net margin 11.6% · Return on equity 11.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6% · Operating margin 11.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 85%, LONKF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.5500
Fair Value $0.7200
Bull $0.9400
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.5500
$0.7000
$0.9000
82
Growth DCF
$0.5500
$0.6900
$0.8500
80
Owner Earnings
$0.6200
$0.8000
$1.04
78
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.5500
$0.7000
$0.9000
82
Owner Earnings
$0.6200
$0.8000
$1.04
78
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.5300
$0.7300
$0.9600
73
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.5700
$0.8000
$1.06
76
5Y P/E Exit
$0.6800
$0.9900
$1.32
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.5300
$0.6900
$0.9000
68
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.5600
$0.7400
$0.9600
69
10Y P/E Exit
$0.6200
$0.8600
$1.14
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.3000
$0.8200
$1.08
65
Lynch FV
$0.1600
$0.2300
$0.3000
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.1600
$0.2300
$0.3000
57
EPV
$0.4400
$0.4800
$0.5100
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.1300
$0.2400
$0.3300
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.1300
$0.2000
$0.2600
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.7000
$0.9300
$1.16
63
P/S Multiple
$0.5600
$0.7500
$0.9400
58
P/B Multiple
$0.5600
$0.7500
$0.9400
55
EV/EBIT
$0.7000
$0.8800
$1.06
66
EV/EBITDA
$0.6500
$0.8200
$0.9800
67
EV/Revenue
$0.5500
$0.7100
$0.8700
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.2000
$0.2700
$0.4000
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.5500
$0.6900
$0.8500
80
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.5300
$0.7300
$0.9500
74
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.3400
$0.3800
$0.4500
76
ROIC Compounder
$0.4400
$0.5000
$0.5600
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.5500
$0.7900
$1.02
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
69/100
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Profitability
44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
49
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
91
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
27
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
69
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.1% vs 11.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 11%
2025 sits 96% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−18.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.1% a year for the price and +5.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+8.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.8%
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Caterpillar Inc CAT | $810.79 | $308.45 | −62% |
| Deere & Company DE | $671.55 | $258.17 | −62% |
| PACCAR Inc PCAR | $109.81 | $120.79 | +10% |
| Daimler Truck Holding DTG | €42.54 | €50.36 | +18% |
| Sany Heavy Industry Co 600031 | ¥17.20 | ¥20.84 | +21% |
| CNH Industrial N.V CNH | $13.06 | $8.65 | −34% |
| Traton SE 8TRA | €34.04 | €32.82 | −4% |
| Metso Oyj METSO | €17.08 | €18.79 | +10% |
| XCMG Construction Machinery Co 000425 | ¥7.17 | ¥14.52 | +103% |
| Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited 3808 | HK$35.30 | HK$56.32 | +60% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Lonking Holdings (LONKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7200 versus a price of $0.3900, about +85% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LONKF?
Our model-based fair value for Lonking Holdings is $0.7200 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.3900.
What is the quality score of LONKF?
Lonking Holdings has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.7200 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5500, optimistic scenario $0.9400. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lonking Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.7200, about +85% upside versus a price of $0.3900 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.5500, optimistic scenario $0.9400. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
Lonking Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 11.2B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lonking Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by -18.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -3.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LONKF use?
Our models discount Lonking Holdings at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.09, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lonking Holdings that is -18.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lonking Holdings (LONKF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lonking Holdings grew -3.2 % a year. The price currently implies -18.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lonking Holdings (LONKF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lonking Holdings (-18.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.83 %: that much free cash flow Lonking Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lonking Holdings it is $0.7200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.3900. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lonking Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LONKF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.3900, fair value $0.7200, a gap of about +85% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LONKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.3900); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.7200). For Lonking Holdings the two are $0.3300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lonking Holdings worth?
The market values Lonking Holdings at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.3900; our models calculate a fair value of $0.7200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LONKF?
Our models span a range for Lonking Holdings: cautious scenario $0.5500, base $0.7200, optimistic $0.9400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.3900). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to Lonking Holdings?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lonking Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.3900, calculated fair value $0.7200 (+85%), Quality Score 69/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LONKF calculated?
We run Lonking Holdings through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.7200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lonking Holdings currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.3900. Our model-based fair value is $0.7200, about +85% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lonking Holdings right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.5500). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Lonking Holdings (LONKF) come from?
Earnings per share at Lonking Holdings grew +12.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.9 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lonking Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
The market capitalisation of Lonking Holdings is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Lonking Holdings is 9.8. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lonking Holdings is 1.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
Earnings per share at Lonking Holdings are $0.0400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
The net margin of Lonking Holdings is 11.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lonking Holdings is 11.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lonking Holdings is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
The operating margin of Lonking Holdings is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
Revenue at Lonking Holdings is growing +15.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lonking Holdings (LONKF)?
Earnings per share at Lonking Holdings are growing +19.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lonking Holdings (LONKF) hold?
Lonking Holdings holds more cash than debt, 2.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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