Lead Real Estate Co (LRE) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $17.9M
Lead Real Estate Co
LRE · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 27, 2026, revised from $3.10 to $3.58 (+15.5%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +2.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 169% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.92). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.92 to $4.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
34‑month range $1.03 – $8.08 · fair‑value band $1.92 – $4.88 · the $1.33 price screens below the $3.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
Lead Real Estate Co (LRE) currently trades at $1.33, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.58, implying the stock looks roughly 169.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lead Real Estate Co generated revenue of $18.8B at a net margin of 4.5%. Revenue grew 12.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.3%. Net debt stands at $10.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.92 (bear case) to $4.88 (bull case); at $1.33, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 169%, LRE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($1,212) versus Asset-Based ($247.15). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 20
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells luxury residential properties in Japan. The company develops single-family homes and condominiums. It also operates hotels in Tokyo and leases apartment building units to individuals in Japan and Dallas, Texas.
Full company description
Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells luxury residential properties in Japan. The company develops single-family homes and condominiums. It also operates hotels in Tokyo and leases apartment building units to individuals in Japan and Dallas, Texas. In addition, the company engages in master lease business which includes fixed term building lease agreements between owners of extended-stay type hotels and the Company. Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lead Real Estate Co reported revenue of $18.2B in FY2025 versus $11.3B in FY2021, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was $816M in FY2025, compounding +30.7%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- A&G Real Estate Partners Appoints Andrew Jacobs to Lead Real Estate Sales Division
- Lead Real Estate Opens Four-Suite Extended-Stay Property in Meguro, Tokyo
- Lancashire Holdings (LSE:LRE) Stock Gets Fair Value Bump As Analysts Trim Targets
- Why The Narrative Around Lancashire Holdings (LSE:LRE) Is Evolving Despite An Unchanged Price Target
Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 588 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹657.75 | ₹159.49 | -76% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,188 | ₹583.43 | -51% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,125 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,925 | ₹1,183 | -39% |
| Godrej Properties Limited GODREJPROP | ₹2,102 | ₹1,044 | -50% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 64.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +32% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 555.00 IDR | 1,388 IDR | +150% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,100 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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