Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd $2.65, price $1.09, upside +143.1%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
36‑month range $1.03 – $8.08 · fair‑value band $1.61 – $4.73 · the $1.09 price screens below the $2.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells luxury residential properties in Japan. The company develops single-family homes and condominiums. It also operates hotels in Tokyo and leases apartment building units to individuals in Japan and Dallas, Texas.
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Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells luxury residential properties in Japan. The company develops single-family homes and condominiums. It also operates hotels in Tokyo and leases apartment building units to individuals in Japan and Dallas, Texas. In addition, the company engages in master lease business which includes fixed term building lease agreements between owners of extended-stay type hotels and the Company. Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares (LRE) currently trades at $1.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.65, implying the stock looks roughly 58.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 25 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Scenario range: $1.61 (bear) to $4.73 (bull), the price of $1.09 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares reported revenue of ¥18.2B in FY2025 versus ¥11.3B in FY2021, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was ¥816M in FY2025, compounding +30.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $17.9M · P/E ratio 2.8 · P/S ratio 0.13 · EPS (TTM) $0.3900 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 18.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 143%, LRE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.61Fair Value $2.65Bull $4.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3900 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+39.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+34.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 8%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.1% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (38 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 578 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside+143% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.91× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LRE
Frequently asked questions
Is Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.65 versus a price of $1.09, about +143% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LRE?
Our model-based fair value for Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares is $2.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.09.
What is the quality score of LRE?
Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.61, optimistic scenario $4.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.65, about +143% upside versus a price of $1.09 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.61, optimistic scenario $4.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥18.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares pay a dividend?
Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares would have to grow free cash flow by +6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LRE use?
Our models discount Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares that is +6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares grew +15.9 % a year. The price currently implies +6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares (+6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 32.38 %: that much free cash flow Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares it is $2.65 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $1.09. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, LRE trades below its calculated fair value: price $1.09, fair value $2.65, a gap of about +143% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LRE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.65). For Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares the two are $1.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares worth?
The market values Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares at about $17.9M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $1.09; our models calculate a fair value of $2.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LRE?
Our models span a range for Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares: cautious scenario $1.61, base $2.65, optimistic $4.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $1.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LRE?
Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 3.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 18.3%, debt of 0.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LRE from its 52-week high?
Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares trades at $1.09, about 40% below its 52-week high of $1.82 and 3% above the low of $1.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, Vinhomes Joint Stock Company, CK Asset Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $1.09, calculated fair value $2.65 (+143%), Quality Score 43/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LRE calculated?
We run Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares currently trades 143 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.09. Our model-based fair value is $2.65, about +143% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($1.61 to $4.73). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares
How large is the market capitalisation of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
The market capitalisation of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares is $17.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares is 0.13 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
Earnings per share at Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares are $0.3900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
The dividend yield of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares is 5.2% (payout 14.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
The net margin of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares is 18.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
The operating margin of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
Revenue at Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares is growing +12.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE)?
Earnings per share at Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares are growing +150% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd (LRE) carry?
The net debt of Lead Real Estate Co., Ltd American Depositary Shares is ¥10.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026