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Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Jul 17, 2026: fair value of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG €3,725, price €6,340, upside -41.2%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · DE · ISIN CH0010570767

CL Broad data Sep 29, 2026

Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG

LSPP · XETRA

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value €3,725 · Strongly overvalued (−41.2%)
✓Quality 65/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +8.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.3% net margin (FY2025)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!1.4% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Wide moat 78/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€6,340 €5,855 Fair Value €3,725 Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €5,855 – €6,340 · fair‑value band €1,988 – €5,866 · the €6,340 price screens above the €3,725 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells chocolate products worldwide. The company sells its products under the Lindt, Ghirardelli, Russell Stover, Whitman's, Pangburn's, Caffarel, Hofbauer, and Küfferle brands.

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Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells chocolate products worldwide. The company sells its products under the Lindt, Ghirardelli, Russell Stover, Whitman's, Pangburn's, Caffarel, Hofbauer, and Küfferle brands. It serves customers through a network of distributors, as well as through its approximately 500 shops. Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG was founded in 1845 and is headquartered in Kilchberg, Switzerland.

Stock analysis

Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP) currently trades at €6,340, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3,725, 41.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €5,217 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €6,340 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €1,299, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €1,988 (bear) to €5,866 (bull), the price of €6,340 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG reported revenue of CHF 5.9B in FY2025 versus CHF 4.6B in FY2021, a compound +6.6%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 727M in FY2025, compounding +10.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap €17.4B · P/E ratio 3.3 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) €1,930 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 12.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.4% · Free cash flow CHF 190M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −41%, LSPP screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €1,988 Fair Value €3,725 Bull €5,866
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€1,393 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €811.80 €1,367 €2,204 79
Growth DCF €831.65 €1,327 €2,030 77
Owner Earnings €3,038 €4,790 €7,434 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €811.80 €1,367 €2,204 79
Owner Earnings €3,038 €4,790 €7,434 75
5Y Revenue Exit €1,642 €2,966 €4,668 71
5Y EBITDA Exit €2,934 €5,364 €8,209 74
5Y P/E Exit €2,723 €4,972 €7,331 70
10Y Revenue Exit €1,256 €2,393 €3,934 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €2,151 €4,051 €6,617 66
10Y P/E Exit €2,017 €3,780 €5,951 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €1,934 €5,773 €7,646 65
Lynch FV €1,220 €1,744 €2,267 61
PEG = 1.0 €1,220 €1,744 €2,267 57
EPV €2,900 €3,419 €3,874 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €1,238 €2,575 €4,084 66
DDM Multi-Stage €1,238 €2,011 €2,702 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple €4,480 €5,973 €7,466 63
P/S Multiple €2,777 €3,702 €4,628 58
P/B Multiple €3,626 €4,835 €6,044 55
EV/EBIT €4,622 €6,236 €7,850 66
EV/EBITDA €4,626 €6,241 €7,857 67
EV/Revenue €2,209 €3,251 €4,292 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €969.24 €1,299 €1,938 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €831.65 €1,327 €2,030 77
Rev-Margin DCF €1,642 €2,945 €4,415 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income €1,924 €2,418 €3,474 75
ROIC Compounder €3,078 €3,958 €5,012 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €3,652 €5,217 €6,782 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65

Profitability 57
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 50
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 21
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 78
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 67
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 48/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.9% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 16%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in CHF, Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.4% a year for the price.

LSPP screens overvalued: fair value 41% below the price. Compare with Mondelez International, Inc →

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG · Fair Value
€3,725 −41%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LSPP

Frequently asked questions

Is Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3,725 versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of €6,340, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LSPP?
Our model-based fair value for Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG is €3,725 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 17, 2026): €6,340.
What is the quality score of LSPP?
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3,725 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €1,988, optimistic scenario €5,866. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3,725, about −41% upside versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of €6,340 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €1,988, optimistic scenario €5,866. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG pay a dividend?
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG would have to grow free cash flow by -3.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LSPP use?
Our models discount Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG that is -3.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies -3.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (-3.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.97 %: that much free cash flow Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG it is €3,725 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of €6,340. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, LSPP trades above its calculated fair value: price €6,340, fair value €3,725, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LSPP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€6,340); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3,725). For Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG the two are €2,615 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG worth?
The market values Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG at about €17.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is €6,340; our models calculate a fair value of €3,725 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LSPP?
Our models span a range for Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG: cautious scenario €1,988, base €3,725, optimistic €5,866 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price €6,340). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is LSPP from its 52-week high?
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG trades at €6,340, at its 52-week high of €6,340 and 3% above the low of €6,160 (as of Jul 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3,725 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Barry Callebaut AG, Cofco Sugar Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price €6,340, calculated fair value €3,725 (−41%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LSPP calculated?
We run Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3,725, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 17, 2026 and stands at €6,340. Our model-based fair value is €3,725, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€5,866). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (€1,988 to €5,866). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG

How large is the market capitalisation of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
The market capitalisation of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG is €17.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG is 3.3 (as of Jun 30, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG is 0.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
Earnings per share at Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG are €1,930 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 3.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
The dividend yield of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG is 1.4% (payout 4.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
The net margin of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG is 12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG is 9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much net debt does Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG (LSPP) carry?
The net debt of Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG is CHF 628M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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