Guan Chong Berhad, (5102) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · MY · Market cap 3.3B MYR
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from 1.74 MYR to 1.95 MYR (+12.2%) since Jul 11, 2026. Share price +8.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (1.46 MYR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.6186 MYR – 1.77 MYR · fair‑value band 1.46 MYR – 2.43 MYR · the 1.22 MYR price screens below the 1.95 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Guan Chong Berhad, (5102) currently trades at 1.22 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.95 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guan Chong Berhad, generated revenue of 14.9B MYR at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue declined 11.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.4%. Net debt stands at 3.1B MYR. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 1.46 MYR (bear case) to 2.43 MYR (bull case); at 1.22 MYR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 95% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 60%, 5102 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (5.50 MYR) versus Dividend Discount (0.1900 MYR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Guan Chong Berhad, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, promotes, distributes, and trades in cocoa products in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Germany, Ivory Coast, and internationally.
Full company description
Guan Chong Berhad, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, promotes, distributes, and trades in cocoa products in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Germany, Ivory Coast, and internationally. The company offers cocoa powder, butter, mass, cake, liquor, and other related products; liquid chocolate, chocolate chips and chunks, chocolate specialties, industrial chocolate, and couvertures; and consumer products, including dragee, praline, and chocolate bars and drinks. It also engages in the trading of cocoa beans and cocoa-derived food ingredients; processing of cocoa into semifinished and finished products; and property management. The company sells its products under the FAVORICH, Carlyle Cocoa, SCHOKINAG, FAVORICH CHOCOLATE, CacaoRich, and Melko brand names. It exports its products. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Pasir Gudang, Malaysia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guan Chong Berhad, reported revenue of 14.9B MYR in FY2025 versus 3.9B MYR in FY2021, a compound +39.7%/yr. Reported net income was 227M MYR in FY2025, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2021.
Watch 5102: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Confectioners · 76 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISN | CHF 96,500 | CHF 9,874 | -90% |
| Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ | $61.00 | $27.68 | -55% |
| The Hershey Company HSY | $170.27 | $91.25 | -46% |
| Barry Callebaut AG BARN | CHF 1,100 | CHF 711.91 | -35% |
| ORION Corp 271560 | 127,100 KRW | 203,315 KRW | +60% |
| Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc TROLB | $39.50 | $21.81 | -45% |
| Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 | ¥18.81 | ¥9.83 | -48% |
| Cloetta AB CLAB | kr 48.88 | kr 59.12 | +21% |
| Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN | ₹586.20 | ₹304.54 | -48% |
| PT Yupi Indo Jelly Gum Tbk YUPI | 1,320 IDR | 1,286 IDR | -3% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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