Guan Chong Bhd (5102) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Guan Chong Bhd MYR 2.54, price MYR 1.44, upside +76.4%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.6186 MYR – 1.77 MYR · fair‑value band 1.78 MYR – 3.30 MYR · the 1.44 MYR price screens below the 2.54 MYR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Guan Chong Berhad, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, promotes, distributes, and trades in cocoa products in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Germany, Ivory Coast, and internationally.
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Guan Chong Berhad, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, promotes, distributes, and trades in cocoa products in Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Germany, Ivory Coast, and internationally. The company offers cocoa powder, butter, mass, cake, liquor, and other related products; liquid chocolate, chocolate chips and chunks, chocolate specialties, industrial chocolate, and couvertures; and consumer products, including dragee, praline, and chocolate bars and drinks. It also engages in the trading of cocoa beans and cocoa-derived food ingredients; processing of cocoa into semifinished and finished products; and property management. The company sells its products under the FAVORICH, Carlyle Cocoa, SCHOKINAG, FAVORICH CHOCOLATE, CacaoRich, and Melko brand names. It exports its products. The company was founded in 1983 and is based in Pasir Gudang, Malaysia.
Stock analysis
Guan Chong Bhd (5102) currently trades at 1.44 MYR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2.54 MYR, implying the stock looks roughly 43.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 6.18 MYR per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the 1.44 MYR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 0.5500 MYR, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1.78 MYR (bear) to 3.30 MYR (bull), the price of 1.44 MYR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Guan Chong Bhd reported revenue of 14.9B MYR in FY2025 versus 3.9B MYR in FY2021, a compound +39.7%/yr. Reported net income was 227M MYR in FY2025, compounding +10.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.9B MYR (≈ $968M) · P/E ratio 16.0 · P/S ratio 0.24 · EPS (TTM) 0.0900 MYR · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 11.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 131% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at 76%, 5102 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.78 MYRFair Value 2.54 MYRBull 3.30 MYR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.0549 MYR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+42.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+50.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +20.1% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MYR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in MYR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−9.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10% vs 9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−24.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Malaysia: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.1% a year for the price and −26.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+76% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−39% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.43× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guan Chong Bhd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/5102
Frequently asked questions
Is Guan Chong Bhd (5102) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2.54 MYR versus a price of 1.44 MYR, about +76% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 5102?
Our model-based fair value for Guan Chong Bhd is 2.54 MYR (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.44 MYR.
What is the quality score of 5102?
Guan Chong Bhd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 2.54 MYR (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.78 MYR, optimistic scenario 3.30 MYR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guan Chong Bhd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 2.54 MYR, about +76% upside versus a price of 1.44 MYR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 1.78 MYR, optimistic scenario 3.30 MYR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
Guan Chong Bhd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 14.9B MYR (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Guan Chong Bhd pay a dividend?
Guan Chong Bhd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guan Chong Bhd would have to grow free cash flow by -7.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +32.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 5102 use?
Our models discount Guan Chong Bhd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for Malaysia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guan Chong Bhd that is -7.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guan Chong Bhd (5102) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guan Chong Bhd grew +32.3 % a year. The price currently implies -7.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guan Chong Bhd (5102) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guan Chong Bhd (-7.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.39 %: that much free cash flow Guan Chong Bhd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guan Chong Bhd it is 2.54 MYR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 1.44 MYR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guan Chong Bhd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 5102 trades below its calculated fair value: price 1.44 MYR, fair value 2.54 MYR, a gap of about +76% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 5102?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.44 MYR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.54 MYR). For Guan Chong Bhd the two are 1.10 MYR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guan Chong Bhd worth?
The market values Guan Chong Bhd at about 3.9B MYR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 1.44 MYR; our models calculate a fair value of 2.54 MYR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 5102?
Our models span a range for Guan Chong Bhd: cautious scenario 1.78 MYR, base 2.54 MYR, optimistic 3.30 MYR per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 1.44 MYR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 5102?
Guan Chong Bhd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 2.54 MYR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 1.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guan Chong Bhd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 11.3%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 5102 from its 52-week high?
Guan Chong Bhd trades at 1.44 MYR, about 1% below its 52-week high of 1.46 MYR and 131% above the low of 0.6221 MYR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.54 MYR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guan Chong Bhd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guan Chong Bhd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 1.44 MYR, calculated fair value 2.54 MYR (+76%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 5102 calculated?
We run Guan Chong Bhd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 2.54 MYR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Guan Chong Bhd currently trades 76 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 1.44 MYR. Our model-based fair value is 2.54 MYR, about +76% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guan Chong Bhd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (1.78 MYR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (1.78 MYR to 3.30 MYR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Guan Chong Bhd (5102) come from?
Earnings per share at Guan Chong Bhd grew +12.3 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.0 %, EBIT margin +9.5 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guan Chong Bhd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
The market capitalisation of Guan Chong Bhd is 3.9B MYR (≈ $968M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guan Chong Bhd is 0.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
Earnings per share at Guan Chong Bhd are 0.0900 MYR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
The dividend yield of Guan Chong Bhd is 1.0% (payout 16.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
The net margin of Guan Chong Bhd is 1.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guan Chong Bhd is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guan Chong Bhd is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
The operating margin of Guan Chong Bhd is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
Revenue at Guan Chong Bhd is growing −39.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +50.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guan Chong Bhd (5102)?
Earnings per share at Guan Chong Bhd are growing +30.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Guan Chong Bhd (5102) carry?
The net debt of Guan Chong Bhd is 3.1B MYR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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