Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Lucara Diamond Corp C$0.28, price C$0.17, upside +64.7%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Lucara Diamond Corp for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.1500 – C$0.8200 · fair‑value band C$0.1700 – C$0.4000 · the C$0.1700 price screens below the C$0.2800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow Lucara Diamond in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Lucara Diamond is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Lucara Diamond Corp., a diamond mining company, engages in the development and operation of diamond properties in Africa. The company holds a 100% interest in the Karowe mine located in Botswana. It also operates Clara Platform, a digital sales platform for rough diamonds.
Show more
Lucara Diamond Corp., a diamond mining company, engages in the development and operation of diamond properties in Africa. The company holds a 100% interest in the Karowe mine located in Botswana. It also operates Clara Platform, a digital sales platform for rough diamonds. The company was formerly known as Bannockburn Resources Limited and changed its name to Lucara Diamond Corp. in August 2007. Lucara Diamond Corp. was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC) currently trades at C$0.1700, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.2800, implying the stock looks roughly 39.3% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$0.3300 per share, and 9 of the 12 models we run sit above the C$0.1700 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$0.2000, and 3 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: C$0.1700 (bear) to C$0.4000 (bull), the price of C$0.1700 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Lucara Diamond Corp reported revenue of $162M in FY2025 versus $230M in FY2021, a compound −8.3%/yr. Reported net income was $26.6M in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$246M (≈ $173M) · P/E ratio 2.4 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) C$0.0700 · Net margin 16.4% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% · Operating margin −46.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 65%, LUC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$0.1700Fair Value C$0.2800Bull C$0.4000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.0522 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−20.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.3% vs −11.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−23% → 21%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.3%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (75 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Precious Metals & Mining · 105 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Below median
Fair Value upside+64.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.4% · Above median
Return on assets1.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)−46.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−28.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.74× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.2800 versus a price of C$0.1700, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LUC?
Our model-based fair value for Lucara Diamond Corp is C$0.2800 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$0.1700.
What is the quality score of LUC?
Lucara Diamond Corp has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.2800 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.1700, optimistic scenario C$0.4000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lucara Diamond Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.2800, about +65% upside versus a price of C$0.1700 (undervalued). Cautious scenario C$0.1700, optimistic scenario C$0.4000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
Lucara Diamond Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $151M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lucara Diamond Corp it is C$0.2800 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of C$0.1700. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lucara Diamond Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, LUC trades below its calculated fair value: price C$0.1700, fair value C$0.2800, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LUC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$0.1700); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.2800). For Lucara Diamond Corp the two are C$0.1100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lucara Diamond Corp worth?
The market values Lucara Diamond Corp at about C$246M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is C$0.1700; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.2800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LUC?
Our models span a range for Lucara Diamond Corp: cautious scenario C$0.1700, base C$0.2800, optimistic C$0.4000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price C$0.1700). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LUC?
Lucara Diamond Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.4 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$0.2800 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lucara Diamond Corp (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LUC from its 52-week high?
Lucara Diamond Corp trades at C$0.1700, about 43% below its 52-week high of C$0.3000 and 13% above the low of C$0.1500 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.2800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lucara Diamond Corp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value PT Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk, Hecla Mining Company, Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A., Sibanye Stillwater Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lucara Diamond Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price C$0.1700, calculated fair value C$0.2800 (+65%), Quality Score 37/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LUC calculated?
We run Lucara Diamond Corp through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.2800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Lucara Diamond Corp currently trades 39 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$0.1700. Our model-based fair value is C$0.2800, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lucara Diamond Corp right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (C$0.1700 to C$0.4000) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC) come from?
Earnings per share at Lucara Diamond Corp grew −8.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −5.8 %, EBIT margin −7.1 %, tax rate +6.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lucara Diamond Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
The market capitalisation of Lucara Diamond Corp is C$246M (≈ $173M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lucara Diamond Corp is 0.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
Earnings per share at Lucara Diamond Corp are C$0.0700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
The net margin of Lucara Diamond Corp is 16.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lucara Diamond Corp is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lucara Diamond Corp is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
The operating margin of Lucara Diamond Corp is −46.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
Revenue at Lucara Diamond Corp is growing −28.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
Earnings per share at Lucara Diamond Corp are growing −82.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC) generate?
The free cash flow of Lucara Diamond Corp is −$48.3M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC) carry?
The net debt of Lucara Diamond Corp is $192M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Lucara Diamond Corp in the live analysis
One click puts Lucara Diamond Corp on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
