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Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$246M

LD Lucara Diamond Corp LUC · TO
PriceC$0.1600
Fair ValueC$0.2000
Upside+25.0%
Quality37/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 7.7% net margin
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/9)
Narrow moat 29/100
Evidence: Medium Range C$0.1200 – C$0.2800 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated yesterday

Share price −5.9% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 25% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (C$0.1200 to C$0.2800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • Our model range runs from C$0.1200 (bear) to C$0.2800 (bull), base C$0.2000. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
  • Quality 37/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

C$0.8400 C$0.1500 Fair Value C$0.2000 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$0.1500 – C$0.8400 · fair‑value band C$0.1200 – C$0.2800 · the C$0.1600 price screens below the C$0.2000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC) currently trades at C$0.1600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.2000, implying the stock looks roughly 25.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Lucara Diamond Corp generated revenue of C$151M at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue declined 28.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at C$192M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from C$0.1200 (bear case) to C$0.2800 (bull case); at C$0.1600, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 25%, LUC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income C$0.1600 C$0.1700 C$0.1700 76
ROIC Compounder C$0.0200 72
Growth-Adj P/E C$0.1600 C$0.2300 C$0.3000 68
All 12 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd C$0.1200 C$0.1500 C$0.1700 54
EPV C$0.0200 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple C$0.2300 C$0.3000 C$0.3800 63
P/S Multiple C$0.1200 C$0.1600 C$0.2000 58
P/B Multiple C$0.2300 C$0.3000 C$0.3800 55
EV/EBIT C$0.1100 C$0.1900 C$0.2700 53
EV/EBITDA C$0.1100 C$0.1900 C$0.2800 54
EV/Revenue C$0.0300 C$0.0800 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$0.1100 C$0.1400 C$0.2100 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income C$0.1600 C$0.1700 C$0.1700 76
ROIC Compounder C$0.0200 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E C$0.1600 C$0.2300 C$0.3000 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$0.2300) versus Asset-Based (C$0.1400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) C$151M
Revenue growth (YoY) -28.1%
Net margin 7.7%
Return on equity 3.4%
Free cash flow −C$48.3M FY2025
P/E ratio 2.3
More key figures
Operating margin -46.5%
EPS (TTM) C$0.0700
EPS growth (YoY) -82.0%
Net debt C$192M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 31
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 10
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 79
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Lucara Diamond Corp., a diamond mining company, engages in the development and operation of diamond properties in Africa. The company holds a 100% interest in the Karowe mine located in Botswana. It also operates Clara Platform, a digital sales platform for rough diamonds.

Full company description

Lucara Diamond Corp., a diamond mining company, engages in the development and operation of diamond properties in Africa. The company holds a 100% interest in the Karowe mine located in Botswana. It also operates Clara Platform, a digital sales platform for rough diamonds. The company was formerly known as Bannockburn Resources Limited and changed its name to Lucara Diamond Corp. in August 2007. Lucara Diamond Corp. was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Lucara Diamond Corp reported revenue of C$162M in FY2025 versus C$230M in FY2021, a compound −8.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$26.6M in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 26/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
C$162M
Latest YoY
−20.3%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−8.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.3%
Avg. growth/yr (13Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.0%
Revenue −8.3%/yr
FY21 C$230M
FY22 C$213M
FY23 C$172M
FY24 C$204M
FY25 C$162M
Net income +2.8%/yr
FY21 C$23.8M
FY22 C$40.4M
FY23 −C$20.2M
FY24 C$39.9M
FY25 C$26.6M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −8.9 % p.a.
Revenue per share −5.8 pp

of which total revenue −3.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.1 pp

EBIT margin −7.1 pp
Tax rate +6.4 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −2.4 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lucara Diamond Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LUC

Peer Group

Other Precious Metals & Mining · 101 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside +25% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) -47% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -28% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.74× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 2.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 67 · sector 0
FUTURE 0 · sector 44
PAST 14 · sector 0
HEALTH 63 · sector 99
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 14

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Fresnillo plc FRES 579.75 MXN 544.18 MXN -6%
Hecla Mining Company HL $17.76 $8.15 -54%
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN $34.60 $29.53 -15%
Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW $10.71 $19.44 +82%
China Gold International Resources Corp CGG C$35.90 C$18.48 -49%
Artemis Gold Inc ARTG C$39.91 C$21.85 -45%
Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM $32.25 $16.03 -50%
Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 ¥19.06 ¥2.84 -85%
Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 ¥21.71 ¥13.23 -39%
Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA C$35.18 C$5.85 -83%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.2000 versus a price of C$0.1600, about +25% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LUC?
Our model-based fair value for Lucara Diamond Corp is C$0.2000 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is C$0.1600.
What is the quality score of LUC?
Lucara Diamond Corp has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC)?
Lucara Diamond Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$151M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of LUC?
The net profit margin of Lucara Diamond Corp is about 7.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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