Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CA · Market cap C$246M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −5.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 25% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (C$0.1200 to C$0.2800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from C$0.1200 (bear) to C$0.2800 (bull), base C$0.2000. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 37/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.1500 – C$0.8400 · fair‑value band C$0.1200 – C$0.2800 · the C$0.1600 price screens below the C$0.2000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Lucara Diamond Corp (LUC) currently trades at C$0.1600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.2000, implying the stock looks roughly 25.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lucara Diamond Corp generated revenue of C$151M at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue declined 28.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at C$192M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$0.1200 (bear case) to C$0.2800 (bull case); at C$0.1600, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 25%, LUC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$0.2300) versus Asset-Based (C$0.1400). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lucara Diamond Corp., a diamond mining company, engages in the development and operation of diamond properties in Africa. The company holds a 100% interest in the Karowe mine located in Botswana. It also operates Clara Platform, a digital sales platform for rough diamonds.
Full company description
Lucara Diamond Corp., a diamond mining company, engages in the development and operation of diamond properties in Africa. The company holds a 100% interest in the Karowe mine located in Botswana. It also operates Clara Platform, a digital sales platform for rough diamonds. The company was formerly known as Bannockburn Resources Limited and changed its name to Lucara Diamond Corp. in August 2007. Lucara Diamond Corp. was incorporated in 1981 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lucara Diamond Corp reported revenue of C$162M in FY2025 versus C$230M in FY2021, a compound −8.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$26.6M in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −3.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Other Precious Metals & Mining · 101 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Precious Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Precious Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresnillo plc FRES | 579.75 MXN | 544.18 MXN | -6% |
| Hecla Mining Company HL | $17.76 | $8.15 | -54% |
| Compañía de Minas Buenaventura S.A. BVN | $34.60 | $29.53 | -15% |
| Sibanye Stillwater Limited SBSW | $10.71 | $19.44 | +82% |
| China Gold International Resources Corp CGG | C$35.90 | C$18.48 | -49% |
| Artemis Gold Inc ARTG | C$39.91 | C$21.85 | -45% |
| Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp TFPM | $32.25 | $16.03 | -50% |
| Zhaojin International Gold Co 000506 | ¥19.06 | ¥2.84 | -85% |
| Sino-Platinum Metals Co 600459 | ¥21.71 | ¥13.23 | -39% |
| Perpetua Resources Corp PPTA | C$35.18 | C$5.85 | -83% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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