Lumen Technologies, Inc (LUMN) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $6.6B
Lumen Technologies, Inc
LUMN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 5 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −8.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 132% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.19). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The model range is unusually wide ($6.19 to $21.13). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.9801 – $13.73 · fair‑value band $6.19 – $21.13 · the $5.90 price screens below the $13.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Lumen Technologies, Inc (LUMN) currently trades at $5.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.66, implying the stock looks roughly 131.5% undervalued today. We read business quality at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lumen Technologies, Inc generated revenue of $12.1B at a net margin of -14.3%. Revenue declined 8.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -78.9%. Net debt stands at $16.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.19 (bear case) to $21.13 (bull case); at $5.90, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 132%, LUMN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 5 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($16.50) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0100). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lumen Technologies, Inc., a networking company, provides integrated products and services to business and mass customers in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Business and Mass Markets.
Full company description
Lumen Technologies, Inc., a networking company, provides integrated products and services to business and mass customers in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Business and Mass Markets. It offers dark fiber and conduit, edge cloud, internet protocol (IP), voice over IP, managed security, software-defined wide area networks, unified communications and collaboration, and optical services; ethernet and VPN data networks services; and legacy services to manage cash flow, including time division multiplexing voice and private line; other legacy services, such as Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) based ethernet, legacy data hosting services, and conferencing services; and managed and professional service solutions, as well as sells communications equipment. The company also provides high speed and lower speed broadband service to residential and small business customers; local and long-distance voice services, professional services, and other ancillary services; and federal broadband and state support programs. It serves its products and services under the Lumen, CenturyLink, Black Lotus Labs, and Quantum Fiber brand name. The company was formerly known as CenturyLink, Inc. and changed its name to Lumen Technologies, Inc. in September 2020. Lumen Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lumen Technologies, Inc reported revenue of $12.4B in FY2025 versus $19.7B in FY2021, a compound −10.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.7B in FY2025.
Watch LUMN: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Lumen (LUMN) To Report Earnings Tomorrow: Here Is What To Expect
- Lumen to Report Q2 Earnings: Here's What Investors Should Know
- Lumen Technologies (LUMN) Wins Yankees Network Deal, Where Does Fair Value Sit?
- Lumen (LUMN) Stock Looks Richer After Fresh AI Connectivity Recognition
Peer Group
Telecom Services · 252 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Mobile Limited 600941 | ¥89.98 | ¥109.88 | +22% |
| T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS | $187.61 | $172.67 | -8% |
| Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL | ₹1,922 | ₹941.55 | -51% |
| China Telecom Corporation 601728 | ¥6.01 | ¥8.36 | +39% |
| América Móvil, S.A. AMXB | 23.07 MXN | 30.35 MXN | +32% |
| Vodafone Group VODN | 259.50 MXN | 507.27 MXN | +95% |
| Advanced Info Service Public Company ADVANC | 379.00 THB | 286.77 THB | -24% |
| Chunghwa Telecom Co 2412 | 133.50 TWD | 100.00 TWD | -25% |
| China Unicom (Hong Kong) Limited 0762 | HK$6.50 | HK$13.03 | +100% |
| Telefónica, S.A TEFN | 75.67 MXN | 111.01 MXN | +47% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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