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Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Lumen Technologies Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Communication Services · US · ISIN US5502411037

LT Lumen Technologies Inc logo Some data Sep 18, 2026

Lumen Technologies Inc

LUMN · US

Low PriorityFair Value upside is limited and quality is weak.

·Fair value $6.74 · Fairly valued (+5%)
!Quality 32/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −9.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -14.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $6.19 to $18.21
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$13.09 $0.9801 Fair Value $6.74 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.9801 – $13.09 · fair‑value band $6.19 – $18.21 · the $6.40 price screens below the $6.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 18, 2026.

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Company profile

Lumen Technologies, Inc., a networking company, provides integrated products and services to business and mass customers in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Business and Mass Markets.

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Lumen Technologies, Inc., a networking company, provides integrated products and services to business and mass customers in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Business and Mass Markets. It offers dark fiber and conduit, edge cloud, internet protocol (IP), voice over IP, managed security, software-defined wide area networks, unified communications and collaboration, and optical services; ethernet and VPN data networks services; and legacy services to manage cash flow, including time division multiplexing voice and private line; other legacy services, such as Synchronous Optical Network (SONET) based ethernet, legacy data hosting services, and conferencing services; and managed and professional service solutions, as well as sells communications equipment. The company also provides high speed and lower speed broadband service to residential and small business customers; local and long-distance voice services, professional services, and other ancillary services; and federal broadband and state support programs. It serves its products and services under the Lumen, CenturyLink, Black Lotus Labs, and Quantum Fiber brand name. The company was formerly known as CenturyLink, Inc. and changed its name to Lumen Technologies, Inc. in September 2020. Lumen Technologies, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Monroe, Louisiana.

Stock analysis

Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN) currently trades at $6.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.74, implying the stock looks roughly 5.0% fairly valued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.01 per share, and 2 of the 5 models we run sit above the $6.40 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $2.44, and 3 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $6.19 (bear) to $18.21 (bull), the price of $6.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 32/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Lumen Technologies Inc reported revenue of $12.4B in FY2025 versus $19.7B in FY2021, a compound −10.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.7B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $6.4B · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) $−1.75 · Net margin −14.0% · Return on equity −78.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −3.9% · Operating margin −0.7% · Revenue (TTM) $12.1B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 5%, LUMN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $6.19 Fair Value $6.74 Bull $18.21
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $8.94 $21.58 72
Gordon GGM $0.0100 $0.0200 $0.0300 67
10Y EBITDA Exit n/a $2.44 $13.49 65
All 5 models by family
DCF Models
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $8.94 $21.58 72
10Y EBITDA Exit n/a $2.44 $13.49 65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.0100 $0.0200 $0.0300 67
DDM Multi-Stage $0.0100 $0.0100 $0.0200 65
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $6.54 $14.01 $21.47 64

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 32/100

Of which business quality 32 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 26

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 12
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 3
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 1
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 42
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 12/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−10.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.7%
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
4.6% (2020) → −1.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−4.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−11.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−3.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)−2.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)−2.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)−1.5%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 255 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 32 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +102% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −9% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.55× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 17.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 9.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 54.58× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)40 · sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 15
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 79

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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China Mobile Limited 600941 ¥97.72 ¥102.17 +5%
T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS $180.47 $270.48 +50%
Verizon Communications Inc VZ $51.45 $64.43 +25%
AT&T Inc T $26.72 $43.97 +65%
Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL ₹1,832 ₹1,883 +3%
China Telecom Corporation 601728 ¥6.26 ¥8.36 +34%
América Móvil, S.A. AMX $22.98 $39.05 +70%
Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z77 4.50 SGD 1.91 SGD −58%
Swisscom AG SCMN CHF 673.00 CHF 463.92 −31%
Telstra Group TLS A$4.87 A$3.31 −32%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lumen Technologies Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LUMN

Frequently asked questions

Is Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.74 versus a price of $6.40, about +5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of LUMN?
Our model-based fair value for Lumen Technologies Inc is $6.74 (as of Sep 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.40.
What is the quality score of LUMN?
Lumen Technologies Inc has a Quality Score of 32/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.74 (as of Sep 18, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.19, optimistic scenario $18.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lumen Technologies Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.74, about +5% upside versus a price of $6.40 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $6.19, optimistic scenario $18.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
Lumen Technologies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 18, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lumen Technologies Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +36.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -9.8 % per year. As of Sep 18, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LUMN use?
Our models discount Lumen Technologies Inc at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.67, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lumen Technologies Inc that is +36.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lumen Technologies Inc grew -9.8 % a year. The price currently implies +36.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lumen Technologies Inc (+36.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.83 %: that much free cash flow Lumen Technologies Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lumen Technologies Inc it is $6.74 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026), against a price of $6.40. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lumen Technologies Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 18, 2026, LUMN trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.40, fair value $6.74, a gap of about +5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LUMN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.74). For Lumen Technologies Inc the two are $0.3400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lumen Technologies Inc worth?
The market values Lumen Technologies Inc at about $6.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 18, 2026). Per share that is $6.40; our models calculate a fair value of $6.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LUMN?
Our models span a range for Lumen Technologies Inc: cautious scenario $6.19, base $6.74, optimistic $18.21 per share (as of Sep 18, 2026, price $6.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of LUMN?
The PEG ratio of Lumen Technologies Inc is 54.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 18, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lumen Technologies Inc (as of Sep 18, 2026): return on equity −78.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 32/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LUMN from its 52-week high?
Lumen Technologies Inc trades at $6.40, about 46% below its 52-week high of $11.95 and 90% above the low of $3.37 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lumen Technologies Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, T-Mobile US, Inc, Verizon Communications Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lumen Technologies Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 18, 2026: price $6.40, calculated fair value $6.74 (+5%), Quality Score 32/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LUMN calculated?
We run Lumen Technologies Inc through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Lumen Technologies Inc currently trades 5 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $6.40. Our model-based fair value is $6.74, about +5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lumen Technologies Inc right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($6.19 to $18.21). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.

Key figures of Lumen Technologies Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
The market capitalisation of Lumen Technologies Inc is $6.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lumen Technologies Inc is 0.84 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
Earnings per share at Lumen Technologies Inc are $−1.75. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
The net margin of Lumen Technologies Inc is −14.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lumen Technologies Inc is −78.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lumen Technologies Inc is −3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
The operating margin of Lumen Technologies Inc is −0.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
Revenue at Lumen Technologies Inc is growing −8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −10.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN)?
Earnings per share at Lumen Technologies Inc are growing −88.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lumen Technologies Inc (LUMN) carry?
The net debt of Lumen Technologies Inc is $16.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 45.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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