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LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of LiveWire Group Inc. stock $0.35, price $0.47, that is 26.3% below the price, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical US

LG LiveWire Group Inc. logo Thin data Nov 11, 2026

LiveWire Group Inc.

LVWR · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 26% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +38% vs. a year ago.
Insiders sold $813,642 (6M)
Fair value $0.3493 · Overvalued
Quality 38/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −3.6 %/yr in USD)
High debt
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/8)
Narrow moat 5/100
Thin data
Estimate⚠ Small free float
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Price vs Fair Value

$12.29 $0.4740 Fair Value $0.3493 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.4740 – $12.29 · fair‑value band $0.2620 – $0.4366 · the $0.4740 price screens above the $0.3493 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.

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Company profile

LiveWire Group, Inc. manufactures and sells electric motorcycles in the United States, Austria, and internationally.

Show moreShow less

The company operates in two segments, Electric Motorcycles and STACYC. It designs and sells electric motorcycles and parts, accessories, and apparel; electric balance bikes for kids; and adult pedal assist electric bikes.

The company sells its products to wholesale, independent dealers and retailers, and independent distributors, as well as direct to consumers online. It offers its products under the LiveWire brand name. The company was founded in 2010 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

LiveWire Group, Inc. is a subsidiary of Harley-Davidson, Inc.

Stock analysis

LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) currently trades at $0.4740, while our estimate is $0.3493, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

Show more

Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $0.2620 (bear) to $0.4366 (bull), the price of $0.4740 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

LiveWire Group Inc. reported revenue of $25.7M in FY2025 versus $35.8M in FY2021, a compound −8.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$75.1M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $97.1M Micro · P/S ratio 3.02 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3600 · Return on equity −258% · Return on assets (EBIT) −66.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin −222% · Revenue (TTM) $33.4M · Revenue growth (YoY) +37.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 5 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 90% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 48% fair-value upside, at −26%, LVWR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $0.2620 Fair Value $0.3493 Bull $0.4366
Price $0.4740 · Downside -26.3%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 71
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 5
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 39
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 76
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 2
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 4
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 77
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $813,642 and none bought.

  • SaleJeremiah NienhuisHead of Strat. & Product Ops.3× since Jul 29, 2026: 32,196 shares, avg. $1.97$63,426Sep 3, 2026
  • SaleWilliam L CornogDirector216 shares at $2.25$486Jul 31, 2026
  • SaleKjell GrunerDirector101,162 shares at $2.10$212,532Jul 31, 2026
  • SaleKarim DonnezChief Executive Officer230,557 shares at $2.33$537,198Jul 29, 2026
  • SaleJon BekefyHead of Global Sales & Mktg.4,199 shares at $4.02$16,880Dec 5, 2025

Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−249.7% (2020) → −294.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

LVWR screens overvalued: fair value 26% below the price. Compare with Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Recreational Vehicles · 33 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside −26.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −51.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 37.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.61× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Recreational Vehicles median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.11× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 2.90× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 7
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)19 · sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 52

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Recreational Vehicles stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Trigano S.A TRI €135.90 €274.15 +102% vs LVWR
Polaris Inc PII $66.62 $127.85 +92% vs LVWR
Harley-Davidson, Inc HOG $34.22 $65.04 +90% vs LVWR
LCI Industries, LCII $97.98 $167.42 +71% vs LVWR
Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co 603129 ¥314.22 ¥465.45 +48% vs LVWR
BRP Inc DOO $65.99 $73.16 +11% vs LVWR
Patrick Industries, Inc PATK $79.70 $88.30 +11% vs LVWR
Sanlorenzo S.p.A SL €37.24 €36.35 −2% vs LVWR
THOR Industries, Inc THO $79.52 $64.20 −19% vs LVWR
Brunswick Corporation BC $78.42 $59.39 −24% vs LVWR

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LiveWire Group Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "LiveWire Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LVWR

Frequently asked questions

Is LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $0.3493 versus a price of $0.4740, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LVWR?
Our estimate for LiveWire Group Inc. is $0.3493 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.4740.
What is the quality score of LVWR?
LiveWire Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $0.3493 (as of Nov 11, 2026). Cautious scenario $0.2620, optimistic scenario $0.4366. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the LiveWire Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $0.3493, about 26% lower versus a price of $0.4740 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.2620, optimistic scenario $0.4366. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
LiveWire Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.4M (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For LiveWire Group Inc. it is $0.3493 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of $0.4740.
Is LiveWire Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, LVWR trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.4740, fair value $0.3493, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LVWR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.4740); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3493). For LiveWire Group Inc. the two are $0.1247 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is LiveWire Group Inc. worth?
The market values LiveWire Group Inc. at about $97.1M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is $0.4740; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3493 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LVWR?
Our models span a range for LiveWire Group Inc.: cautious scenario $0.2620, base $0.3493, optimistic $0.4366 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price $0.4740). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
Balance-sheet figures for LiveWire Group Inc. (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity −258.0%, debt of 1.61 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LVWR from its 52-week high?
LiveWire Group Inc. trades at $0.4740, about 90% below its 52-week high of $4.98 and at the low of $0.4740 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.3493 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to LiveWire Group Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co, Brunswick Corporation, BRP Inc, THOR Industries, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is LiveWire Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price $0.4740, calculated fair value $0.3493 (−26%), Quality Score 38/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. LiveWire Group Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $0.4740. Our estimate is $0.3493, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with LiveWire Group Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4366). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of LiveWire Group Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
The market capitalisation of LiveWire Group Inc. is $97.1M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of LiveWire Group Inc. is 3.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
Earnings per share at LiveWire Group Inc. are $−0.3600. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of LiveWire Group Inc. is −258% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of LiveWire Group Inc. is −66.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
The operating margin of LiveWire Group Inc. is −222% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR)?
Revenue at LiveWire Group Inc. is growing +37.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −18.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) generate?
The free cash flow of LiveWire Group Inc. is −$57.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) hold?
LiveWire Group Inc. holds more cash than debt, $6.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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