Polaris Inc (PII) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $3.8B
Polaris Inc
PII · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from $58.25 to $29.83 (−48.8%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +9.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 58% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($43.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($16.21 to $43.45). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.10 – $121.81 · fair‑value band $16.21 – $43.45 · the $71.57 price screens above the $29.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Polaris Inc (PII) currently trades at $71.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.83, implying the stock looks roughly 58.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Polaris Inc generated revenue of $7.4B at a net margin of -6.1%. Revenue grew 7.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -44.9%. Net debt stands at $1.4B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $16.21 (bear case) to $43.45 (bull case); at $71.57, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 33% fair-value upside, at -58%, PII screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($126.40) versus Asset-Based ($9.76). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Off Road, On Road, and Marine.
Full company description
Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Off Road, On Road, and Marine. The company offers off-road vehicles (ORVs), including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles; military and commercial ORVs; snowmobiles; motorcycles; moto-roadsters; quadricycles; and pontoon and deck boats. It also provides source parts, garments, and accessories, such as helmets, jackets, gloves, pants, and hats; and snowmobile accessories comprising covers, traction products, reverse kits, electric starters, tracks, pull-behinds, bags, and windshields, as well as gear and apparel for its snowmobiles consisting of helmets, jackets, goggles, gloves, boots, bibs, pants, and hats. In addition, the company offers ORV accessories, including winches, bumper/brushguards, plows, racks, wheels and tires, cab systems, lighting and audio systems, cargo box accessories, and tracks, as well as replacement parts and lubricants. Further, it provides motorcycle accessories, such as performance enhancements, saddle bags, handlebars, backrests, exhausts, windshields, seats, and various chrome accessories, as well as light duty hauling and passenger vehicles. The company sells its products through dealers and distributors, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Polaris Industries Inc. Polaris Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Medina, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Polaris Inc reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $7.4B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$466M in FY2025.
PII screens 58% overvalued. Compare with Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Polaris, Peers Delivered Q2 Beats And Raises Amid Demanding Setups, Morgan Stanley Says
- POLARIS INTRODUCES BREAKTHROUGH POWER, INNOVATION AND VALUE ACROSS 2027 OFF-ROAD LINEUP
- Polaris Declares Regular Cash Dividend
- Here Is Why Bargain Hunters Would Love Fast-paced Mover Polaris Inc (PII)
Peer Group
Recreational Vehicles · 37 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Recreational Vehicles median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Recreational Vehicles stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co 603129 | ¥293.01 | ¥199.10 | -32% |
| Brunswick Corporation BC | $80.45 | $16.76 | -79% |
| BRP Inc DOO | C$85.96 | C$86.81 | +1% |
| THOR Industries, Inc THO | $72.86 | $97.14 | +33% |
| Trigano S.A TRI | €149.60 | €273.48 | +83% |
| Patrick Industries, Inc PATK | $82.70 | $85.54 | +3% |
| Harley-Davidson, Inc HOG | $26.81 | $64.09 | +139% |
| LCI Industries, LCII | $108.17 | $156.35 | +45% |
| Sanlorenzo S.p.A SL | €38.30 | €40.65 | +6% |
| Ferretti S.p.A 9638 | HK$36.00 | HK$51.06 | +42% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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