Polaris Industries Inc (PII) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Polaris Industries Inc $129, price $52.94, upside +144.2%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $30.10 – $121.50 · fair‑value band $74.27 – $198.77 · the $52.94 price screens below the $129.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Off Road, On Road, and Marine.
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Polaris Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets powersports vehicles in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Off Road, On Road, and Marine. The company offers off-road vehicles (ORVs), including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles; military and commercial ORVs; snowmobiles; motorcycles; moto-roadsters; quadricycles; and pontoon and deck boats. It also provides source parts, garments, and accessories, such as helmets, jackets, gloves, pants, and hats; and snowmobile accessories comprising covers, traction products, reverse kits, electric starters, tracks, pull-behinds, bags, and windshields, as well as gear and apparel for its snowmobiles consisting of helmets, jackets, goggles, gloves, boots, bibs, pants, and hats. In addition, the company offers ORV accessories, including winches, bumper/brushguards, plows, racks, wheels and tires, cab systems, lighting and audio systems, cargo box accessories, and tracks, as well as replacement parts and lubricants. Further, it provides motorcycle accessories, such as performance enhancements, saddle bags, handlebars, backrests, exhausts, windshields, seats, and various chrome accessories, as well as light duty hauling and passenger vehicles. The company sells its products through dealers and distributors, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Polaris Industries Inc. Polaris Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Medina, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Polaris Industries Inc (PII) currently trades at $52.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $129.29, implying the stock looks roughly 59.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $135.06 per share, and 8 of the 12 models we run sit above the $52.94 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $30.44, and 4 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $74.27 (bear) to $198.77 (bull), the price of $52.94 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Polaris Industries Inc reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $7.4B in FY2021, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$466M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.8B · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) $−7.84 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin −6.5% · Return on equity −44.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7% · Operating margin −0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 144%, PII screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $74.27Fair Value $129.29Bull $198.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.2% a year
Revenue growth 38 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.9% (2019) → −0.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.1% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Recreational Vehicles · 40 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside+144% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.82× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Recreational Vehicles median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Polaris Industries Inc (PII) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $129.29 versus a price of $52.94, about +144% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PII?
Our model-based fair value for Polaris Industries Inc is $129.29 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $52.94.
What is the quality score of PII?
Polaris Industries Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $129.29 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $74.27, optimistic scenario $198.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Polaris Industries Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $129.29, about +144% upside versus a price of $52.94 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $74.27, optimistic scenario $198.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
Polaris Industries Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $7.4B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Polaris Industries Inc pay a dividend?
Polaris Industries Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Polaris Industries Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -5.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PII use?
Our models discount Polaris Industries Inc at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Polaris Industries Inc that is -5.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Polaris Industries Inc (PII) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Polaris Industries Inc grew +0.4 % a year. The price currently implies -5.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Polaris Industries Inc (PII) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Polaris Industries Inc (-5.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.53 %: that much free cash flow Polaris Industries Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Polaris Industries Inc it is $129.29 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $52.94. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Polaris Industries Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, PII trades below its calculated fair value: price $52.94, fair value $129.29, a gap of about +144% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PII?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($52.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($129.29). For Polaris Industries Inc the two are $76.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Polaris Industries Inc worth?
The market values Polaris Industries Inc at about $3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $52.94; our models calculate a fair value of $129.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PII?
Our models span a range for Polaris Industries Inc: cautious scenario $74.27, base $129.29, optimistic $198.77 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $52.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of PII?
The PEG ratio of Polaris Industries Inc is 3.34 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
Balance-sheet figures for Polaris Industries Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −44.9%, debt of 1.82 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PII from its 52-week high?
Polaris Industries Inc trades at $52.94, about 29% below its 52-week high of $74.70 and 12% above the low of $47.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $129.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Polaris Industries Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co, Brunswick Corporation, BRP Inc, THOR Industries, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Polaris Industries Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $52.94, calculated fair value $129.29 (+144%), Quality Score 48/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PII calculated?
We run Polaris Industries Inc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $129.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Polaris Industries Inc currently trades 144 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $52.94. Our model-based fair value is $129.29, about +144% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Polaris Industries Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($74.27). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($74.27 to $198.77). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Polaris Industries Inc (PII) come from?
Earnings per share at Polaris Industries Inc grew −0.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.9 %, EBIT margin −7.9 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Polaris Industries Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
The market capitalisation of Polaris Industries Inc is $3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Polaris Industries Inc is 0.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
Earnings per share at Polaris Industries Inc are $−7.84. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
The dividend yield of Polaris Industries Inc is 5.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
The net margin of Polaris Industries Inc is −6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Polaris Industries Inc is −44.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Polaris Industries Inc is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
The operating margin of Polaris Industries Inc is −0.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
Revenue at Polaris Industries Inc is growing +7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Polaris Industries Inc (PII)?
Earnings per share at Polaris Industries Inc are growing −89.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Polaris Industries Inc (PII) carry?
The net debt of Polaris Industries Inc is $1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026