Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Harley-Davidson Inc $64.09, price $25.98, upside +146.7%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $17.06 – $47.52 · fair‑value band $48.15 – $79.73 · the $25.98 price screens below the $64.09 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells motorcycles in the United States and internationally. The company operates in three segments: Harley-Davidson Motor Company, LiveWire, and Harley-Davidson Financial Services. The Harley-Davidson Motor Company segment designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles, including cruiser, trike, Grand American touring, standard, sportbike, adventure touring, and dual sport, as well as motorcycle parts, accessories, and apparel, as well as licenses its trademarks and related services. This segment sells its products to retail customers through a network of independent dealers, as well as e-commerce channels. The LiveWire segment sells electric motorcycles, balance bikes for kids, electric bikes, parts and accessories, apparel, and related parts and services. The Harley-Davidson Financial Services segment provides wholesale financing services, such as floorplan and open-account financing of motorcycles, and parts and accessories; and retail financing services, such as installment lending for the purchase of new and used Harley-Davidson motorcycles, as well as point-of-sale insurance and voluntary protection products. This segment also licenses third-party financial institutions that issue credit cards bearing the Harley-Davidson brand. Harley-Davidson, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Stock analysis
Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) currently trades at $25.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $64.09, implying the stock looks roughly 59.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $71.19 per share, and 21 of the 25 models we run sit above the $25.98 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $10.19, and 4 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $48.15 (bear) to $79.73 (bull), the price of $25.98 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Harley-Davidson Inc reported revenue of $4.5B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $339M in FY2025, compounding −15.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $3.2B · P/E ratio 13.5 · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) $1.93 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 7.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at 147%, HOG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $48.15Fair Value $64.09Bull $79.73
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.9305 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.7%
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1% vs −3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.5% a year for the price and −2.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Recreational Vehicles · 40 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+146% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−12% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Recreational Vehicles median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Harley-Davidson Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOG
Frequently asked questions
Is Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $64.09 versus a price of $25.98, about +147% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HOG?
Our model-based fair value for Harley-Davidson Inc is $64.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $25.98.
What is the quality score of HOG?
Harley-Davidson Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $64.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $48.15, optimistic scenario $79.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Harley-Davidson Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $64.09, about +147% upside versus a price of $25.98 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $48.15, optimistic scenario $79.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
Harley-Davidson Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Harley-Davidson Inc pay a dividend?
Harley-Davidson Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Harley-Davidson Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -7.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HOG use?
Our models discount Harley-Davidson Inc at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Harley-Davidson Inc that is -7.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Harley-Davidson Inc grew +2.0 % a year. The price currently implies -7.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Harley-Davidson Inc (-7.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.18 %: that much free cash flow Harley-Davidson Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Harley-Davidson Inc it is $64.09 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $25.98. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Harley-Davidson Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HOG trades below its calculated fair value: price $25.98, fair value $64.09, a gap of about +147% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HOG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($25.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($64.09). For Harley-Davidson Inc the two are $38.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Harley-Davidson Inc worth?
The market values Harley-Davidson Inc at about $3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $25.98; our models calculate a fair value of $64.09 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HOG?
Our models span a range for Harley-Davidson Inc: cautious scenario $48.15, base $64.09, optimistic $79.73 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $25.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HOG?
Harley-Davidson Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $64.09 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 11.0, P/B 1.0, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
What is the PEG ratio of HOG?
The PEG ratio of Harley-Davidson Inc is 11.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Harley-Davidson Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.1%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HOG from its 52-week high?
Harley-Davidson Inc trades at $25.98, about 9% below its 52-week high of $28.45 and 52% above the low of $17.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $64.09 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Harley-Davidson Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co, Brunswick Corporation, BRP Inc, Polaris Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Harley-Davidson Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $25.98, calculated fair value $64.09 (+147%), Quality Score 63/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HOG calculated?
We run Harley-Davidson Inc through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $64.09, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Harley-Davidson Inc currently trades 147 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $25.98. Our model-based fair value is $64.09, about +147% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Harley-Davidson Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($48.15). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) come from?
Earnings per share at Harley-Davidson Inc grew −0.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin −6.7 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Harley-Davidson Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
The market capitalisation of Harley-Davidson Inc is $3.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Harley-Davidson Inc is 1.02 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
Earnings per share at Harley-Davidson Inc are $1.93 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
The dividend yield of Harley-Davidson Inc is 2.8% (payout 37.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
The net margin of Harley-Davidson Inc is 7.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Harley-Davidson Inc is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Harley-Davidson Inc is 6.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
The operating margin of Harley-Davidson Inc is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
Revenue at Harley-Davidson Inc is growing −11.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG)?
Earnings per share at Harley-Davidson Inc are growing −79.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) hold?
Harley-Davidson Inc holds more cash than debt, $38.0M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026