LSB Industries, Inc (LXU) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $819M
LSB Industries, Inc
LXU · US
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price −14.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 40% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.72 – $26.74 · fair‑value band $4.36 – $7.27 · the $9.62 price screens above the $5.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
LSB Industries, Inc (LXU) currently trades at $9.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.82, implying the stock looks roughly 39.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, LSB Industries, Inc generated revenue of $641M at a net margin of 7.2%. Revenue grew 18.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.9%. Net debt stands at $470M. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.36 (bear case) to $7.27 (bull case); at $9.62, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 36% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -46% fair-value upside, at -40%, LXU screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($5.82) versus Economic Profit ($1.08). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
LSB Industries, Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells chemical products in the United States. The company offers ammonia and urea ammonia nitrate for agricultural applications.
Full company description
LSB Industries, Inc. manufactures, markets, and sells chemical products in the United States. The company offers ammonia and urea ammonia nitrate for agricultural applications. It also provides high purity and commercial grade ammonia, high purity ammonium nitrate, sulfuric acids, concentrated, blended and regular nitric acid, mixed nitrating acids, carbon dioxide, industrial grade ammonium nitrate, and ammonium nitrate for industrial applications. It sells its products to farmers, ranchers, fertilizer dealers, and distributors primarily in the ranch land and grain production markets, as well as industrial users of acids and explosive manufacturers. LSB Industries, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
LSB Industries, Inc reported revenue of $615M in FY2025 versus $556M in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $24.6M in FY2025, compounding −13.3%/yr from FY2021.
LXU screens 40% overvalued. Compare with BASF SE →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Will LSB Industries (LXU) be Able to Generate Strong Free Cash Flow?
- Riverwater Micro Opportunities Strategy’s Investment Thesis for LSB Industries (LXU)
- LSB Industries (LXU) Downgraded to Sector Perform Amid Iran Conflict
- CF Industries, LSB Industries Benefiting From Higher Prices Due to Iran War, RBC Says
Peer Group
Chemicals · 334 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BASF SE BASN | 1,034 MXN | 532.13 MXN | -49% |
| Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 | ¥20.32 | ¥20.17 | -1% |
| Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 | ¥42.85 | ¥23.35 | -46% |
| PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT | 1,690 IDR | 1,628 IDR | -4% |
| LG Chem, Ltd 051910 | 260,500 KRW | 587,755 KRW | +126% |
| Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation 1326 | 66.10 TWD | 6.79 TWD | -90% |
| PTT Global Chemical Public Company PTTGC | 35.50 THB | 18.21 THB | -49% |
| 542812 542812 | ₹4,369 | ₹791.05 | -82% |
| Indorama Ventures Public Company IVL | 24.50 THB | 17.95 THB | -27% |
| Navin Fluorine International Limited NAVINFLUOR | ₹8,650 | ₹2,146 | -75% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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