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Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Lycopodium Limited $15.62, price $14.20, upside +10.0%, quality 72 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Broad data
Sep 24, 2026
Lycopodium Limited
LYOPF · USNeutralQuality growthThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.
·Fair value $15.62 · Fairly valued (+10.0%)
✓Quality 72/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓3.3% dividend yield · Sustainable
✓Wide moat 67/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.27 – $14.20 · fair‑value band $10.76 – $22.90 · the $14.20 price screens below the $15.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Lycopodium Limited provides engineering and project delivery services in the resources, rail infrastructure, and industrial processes sectors in Australia. It operates through four segments: Resources, Industrial Process, Rail Infrastructure, and Others.
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Lycopodium Limited provides engineering and project delivery services in the resources, rail infrastructure, and industrial processes sectors in Australia. It operates through four segments: Resources, Industrial Process, Rail Infrastructure, and Others. The company offers engineering and related services, including process plant and equipment, civil building works, control systems, services, and infrastructure to the mining industry; and engineering and related services to manufacturing and renewable energy facilities. It also provides asset management, engineering, architectural and project delivery services to private and public clients; and metallurgical consulting services to mineral processing community in the field of comminution, hydrometallurgy, and mineral processing design. In addition, the company offers feasibility studies and advisory; process development and optimization; process control and optimization; project management and control; construction management; commissioning and operation support; and performance assessment and improvement. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in East Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF) currently trades at $14.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.62, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $12.64 per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the $14.20 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.78, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.76 (bear) to $22.90 (bull), the price of $14.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Lycopodium Limited reported revenue of A$334M in FY2025 versus A$158M in FY2021, a compound +20.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$42.2M in FY2025, compounding +31.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $564M · P/E ratio 22.5 · P/S ratio 2.85 · EPS (TTM) $0.6300 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 12.6% · Return on equity 24.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 20.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 102% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 10%, LYOPF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.76
Fair Value $15.62
Bull $22.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1600 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$7.47
$10.67
$15.16
81
Growth DCF
$7.46
$10.43
$14.43
79
Owner Earnings
$9.12
$13.18
$18.89
76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$7.47
$10.67
$15.16
81
Owner Earnings
$9.12
$13.18
$18.89
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$8.05
$12.44
$18.15
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$9.12
$14.50
$20.95
75
5Y P/E Exit
$10.10
$16.40
$23.25
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$7.54
$11.30
$16.59
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$8.37
$12.64
$18.61
68
10Y P/E Exit
$8.95
$13.87
$20.27
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$5.03
$18.52
$25.01
64
Lynch FV
$4.43
$6.33
$8.22
61
PEG = 1.0
$4.43
$6.33
$8.22
57
EPV
$6.29
$6.96
$7.51
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.70
$4.87
$6.70
68
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.70
$4.45
$5.20
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$11.64
$15.52
$19.40
63
P/S Multiple
$8.77
$11.69
$14.62
58
P/B Multiple
$8.97
$11.96
$14.96
55
EV/EBIT
$13.23
$17.18
$21.13
66
EV/EBITDA
$11.22
$14.50
$17.78
67
EV/Revenue
$8.74
$11.90
$15.05
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.33
$1.78
$2.66
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$7.46
$10.43
$14.43
79
Rev-Margin DCF
$8.05
$12.39
$17.61
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.84
$4.98
$8.31
74
ROIC Compounder
$6.59
$7.65
$8.76
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$8.28
$11.83
$15.37
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
72/100
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 84
Profitability
90
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
21
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
99
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
98
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+27.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+24.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.5% vs 28.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 16%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.4% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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| Vinci SA DG | €105.60 | €186.22 | +76% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,658 | $1,116 | −33% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,876 | ₹1,994 | −49% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 367,000 KRW | 159,718 KRW | −56% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | $55.77 | $21.74 | −61% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €407.40 | €203.86 | −50% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $769.03 | $525.05 | −32% |
| ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS | €95.00 | €62.20 | −35% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €43.14 | €66.31 | +54% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.62 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $14.20, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LYOPF?
Our model-based fair value for Lycopodium Limited is $15.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $14.20.
What is the quality score of LYOPF?
Lycopodium Limited has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.62 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.76, optimistic scenario $22.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lycopodium Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.62, about +10% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $14.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $10.76, optimistic scenario $22.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
Lycopodium Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$342M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Lycopodium Limited pay a dividend?
Lycopodium Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lycopodium Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LYOPF use?
Our models discount Lycopodium Limited at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.18, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lycopodium Limited that is +10.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lycopodium Limited grew +10.1 % a year. The price currently implies +10.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lycopodium Limited (+10.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.34 %: that much free cash flow Lycopodium Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lycopodium Limited it is $15.62 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $14.20. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lycopodium Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, LYOPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.20, fair value $15.62, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LYOPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.62). For Lycopodium Limited the two are $1.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lycopodium Limited worth?
The market values Lycopodium Limited at about $564M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $14.20; our models calculate a fair value of $15.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LYOPF?
Our models span a range for Lycopodium Limited: cautious scenario $10.76, base $15.62, optimistic $22.90 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $14.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LYOPF?
Lycopodium Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lycopodium Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 24.0%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LYOPF from its 52-week high?
Lycopodium Limited trades at $14.20, at its 52-week high of $14.20 and 102% above the low of $7.04 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lycopodium Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lycopodium Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $14.20, calculated fair value $15.62 (+10%), Quality Score 72/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LYOPF calculated?
We run Lycopodium Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lycopodium Limited currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $14.20. Our model-based fair value is $15.62, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lycopodium Limited right now?
A fairly wide model range ($10.76 to $22.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF) come from?
Earnings per share at Lycopodium Limited grew +33.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.1 %, EBIT margin +20.1 %, tax rate +3.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lycopodium Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
The market capitalisation of Lycopodium Limited is $564M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lycopodium Limited is 2.85 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
Earnings per share at Lycopodium Limited are $0.6300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
The dividend yield of Lycopodium Limited is 3.3% (payout 74.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
The net margin of Lycopodium Limited is 12.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lycopodium Limited is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lycopodium Limited is 20.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
The operating margin of Lycopodium Limited is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
Revenue at Lycopodium Limited is growing +4.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF)?
Earnings per share at Lycopodium Limited are growing −27.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lycopodium Limited (LYOPF) hold?
Lycopodium Limited holds more cash than debt, A$62.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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