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Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Marathon Petroleum Corporation BRL 46.03, price BRL 138, upside -66.7%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Energy · BR · ISIN US56585A1025

MP Some data Sep 29, 2026

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

M1PC34 · SA

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value R$46.03 · Strongly overvalued (−66.7%)
✓Quality 64/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +14.1 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.4% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.3% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 50/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R$505.82 R$2.27 Fair Value R$46.03 Jun 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$2.27 – R$505.82 · fair‑value band R$29.83 – R$69.59 · the R$138.04 price screens above the R$46.03 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel.

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Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

Stock analysis

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34) currently trades at R$138.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$46.03, 66.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of R$66.44 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the R$138.04 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$12.97, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: R$29.83 (bear) to R$69.59 (bull), the price of R$138.04 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported revenue of $135B in FY2025 versus $120B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was $4.0B in FY2025, compounding −19.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap R$396B (≈ $75.7B) · P/E ratio 17.2 · P/S ratio 0.52 · EPS (TTM) R$78.73 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 27.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 172% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −67%, M1PC34 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R$29.83 Fair Value R$46.03 Bull R$69.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$56.58 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF R$38.99 R$64.78 R$109.06 76
Growth DCF R$41.55 R$66.44 R$106.41 75
EPV R$49.45 R$62.70 R$74.28 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$38.99 R$64.78 R$109.06 76
Owner Earnings R$28.08 R$49.79 R$87.06 71
5Y Revenue Exit R$44.81 R$81.75 R$132.45 68
5Y EBITDA Exit R$27.27 R$51.60 R$81.81 71
5Y P/E Exit R$21.53 R$41.74 R$64.32 67
10Y Revenue Exit R$39.65 R$71.77 R$109.39 63
10Y EBITDA Exit R$31.16 R$51.74 R$75.08 66
10Y P/E Exit R$27.62 R$45.20 R$63.23 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$30.77 R$56.54 R$70.00 64
EPV R$49.45 R$62.70 R$74.28 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$11.70 R$15.57 R$19.50 67
DDM Multi-Stage R$11.70 R$16.08 R$21.31 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$47.51 R$63.35 R$79.18 63
P/S Multiple R$57.69 R$76.92 R$96.15 58
P/B Multiple R$26.13 R$34.84 R$43.55 55
EV/EBIT R$39.52 R$62.70 R$85.87 64
EV/EBITDA R$28.07 R$47.43 R$66.78 65
EV/Revenue R$54.35 R$90.50 R$126.66 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$9.68 R$12.97 R$19.36 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$41.55 R$66.44 R$106.41 75
Rev-Margin DCF R$44.81 R$82.79 R$127.21 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$26.63 R$31.73 R$46.07 73
ROIC Compounder R$51.20 R$67.63 R$84.40 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$34.40 R$49.14 R$63.89 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 92

Profitability 56
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 36
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 72
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 100
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+29.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−4% → 6%

M1PC34 screens overvalued: fair value 67% below the price. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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R$46.03 −67%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marathon Petroleum Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/M1PC34

Frequently asked questions

Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$46.03 versus a price of R$138.04, about −67% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of M1PC34?
Our model-based fair value for Marathon Petroleum Corporation is R$46.03 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$138.04.
What is the quality score of M1PC34?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$46.03 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$29.83, optimistic scenario R$69.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marathon Petroleum Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$46.03, about −67% upside versus a price of R$138.04 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$29.83, optimistic scenario R$69.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $136B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Marathon Petroleum Corporation pay a dividend?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marathon Petroleum Corporation it is R$46.03 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$138.04. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, M1PC34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$138.04, fair value R$46.03, a gap of about −67% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of M1PC34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$138.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$46.03). For Marathon Petroleum Corporation the two are R$92.01 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marathon Petroleum Corporation worth?
The market values Marathon Petroleum Corporation at about R$396B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$138.04; our models calculate a fair value of R$46.03 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about M1PC34?
Our models span a range for Marathon Petroleum Corporation: cautious scenario R$29.83, base R$46.03, optimistic R$69.59 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$138.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is M1PC34 from its 52-week high?
Marathon Petroleum Corporation trades at R$138.04, at its 52-week high of R$138.04 and 172% above the low of R$50.84 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$46.03 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marathon Petroleum Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Reliance Industries Limited, Valero Energy Corporation, Phillips 66, Neste Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marathon Petroleum Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$138.04, calculated fair value R$46.03 (−67%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of M1PC34 calculated?
We run Marathon Petroleum Corporation through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$46.03, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Marathon Petroleum Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$138.04. Our model-based fair value is R$46.03, about −67% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marathon Petroleum Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$69.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$29.83 to R$69.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Marathon Petroleum Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
The market capitalisation of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is R$396B (≈ $75.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 17.2 (as of Jul 14, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 0.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
Earnings per share at Marathon Petroleum Corporation are R$78.73 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
The dividend yield of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 0.3% (payout 0.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
The net margin of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 3.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 27.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 12.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
The operating margin of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is 3.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
Revenue at Marathon Petroleum Corporation is growing +8.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34)?
Earnings per share at Marathon Petroleum Corporation are growing +351% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34) generate?
The free cash flow of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is $4.8B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Marathon Petroleum Corporation (M1PC34) carry?
The net debt of Marathon Petroleum Corporation is $29.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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