Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Marriott International Inc. BRL 167, price BRL 439, upside -62.0%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$161.36 – R$513.57 · fair‑value band R$82.24 – R$271.70 · the R$438.68 price screens above the R$166.75 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
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Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation, franchise, and licensing of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties in the U.S. & Canada, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates properties under JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, St.
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Marriott International, Inc. engages in the operation, franchise, and licensing of hotel, residential, timeshare, and other lodging properties in the U.S. & Canada, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Greater China, and Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates properties under JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, The Luxury Collection, W Hotels, St. Regis, EDITION, Bvlgari, Marriott Hotels, Sheraton, Westin, Autograph Collection, Renaissance Hotels, Le Méridien, Delta Hotels by Marriott, MGM Collection with Marriott Bonvoy, Tribute Portfolio, Gaylord Hotels, Design Hotels, Marriott Executive Apartments, Apartments by Marriott Bonvoy, Courtyard by Marriott, Fairfield by Marriott, Residence Inn by Marriott, SpringHill Suites by Marriott, Four Points by Sheraton, TownePlace Suites by Marriott, Aloft Hotels, AC Hotels by Marriott, Moxy Hotels, Element Hotels, Protea Hotels by Marriott, citizen, City Express by Marriott, and Four Points Flex by Sheraton brand names, as well as operates residences, timeshares, and yachts. The company was founded in 1927 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.
Stock analysis
Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34) currently trades at R$438.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$166.75, 62.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$236.87 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the R$438.68 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$57.23, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$82.24 (bear) to R$271.70 (bull), the price of R$438.68 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Marriott International Inc. reported revenue of $26.2B in FY2025 versus $13.9B in FY2021, a compound +17.2%/yr. Reported net income was $2.6B in FY2025, compounding +24.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$516B (≈ $98.8B) · P/E ratio 35.5 · P/S ratio 3.52 · EPS (TTM) R$12.37 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 9.9% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −62%, M1TT34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$82.24Fair Value R$166.75Bull R$271.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$7.33 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 16%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.5% a year for the price and +2.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Marriott International Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 160 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−57.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets9.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)36.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)59.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth12.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)35.5× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
PEG2.24× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)63· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 14
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)12· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marriott International Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/M1TT34
Frequently asked questions
Is Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$166.75 versus a price of R$438.68, about −62% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of M1TT34?
Our model-based fair value for Marriott International Inc. is R$166.75 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$438.68.
What is the quality score of M1TT34?
Marriott International Inc. has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$166.75 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$82.24, optimistic scenario R$271.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marriott International Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$166.75, about −62% upside versus a price of R$438.68 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$82.24, optimistic scenario R$271.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Marriott International Inc. pay a dividend?
Marriott International Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.61% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Marriott International Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.9 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of M1TT34 use?
Our models discount Marriott International Inc. at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.11, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Marriott International Inc. that is +10.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Marriott International Inc. grew +19.9 % a year. The price currently implies +10.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Marriott International Inc. (+10.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.68 %: that much free cash flow Marriott International Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marriott International Inc. it is R$166.75 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$438.68. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marriott International Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, M1TT34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$438.68, fair value R$166.75, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of M1TT34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$438.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$166.75). For Marriott International Inc. the two are R$271.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marriott International Inc. worth?
The market values Marriott International Inc. at about R$516B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$438.68; our models calculate a fair value of R$166.75 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about M1TT34?
Our models span a range for Marriott International Inc.: cautious scenario R$82.24, base R$166.75, optimistic R$271.70 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$438.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of M1TT34?
Marriott International Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.5 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$166.75 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.2.
What is the PEG ratio of M1TT34?
The PEG ratio of Marriott International Inc. is 2.24 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marriott International Inc. (as of Sep 29, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is M1TT34 from its 52-week high?
Marriott International Inc. trades at R$438.68, about 15% below its 52-week high of R$513.57 and 26% above the low of R$349.50 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$166.75 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marriott International Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marriott International Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$438.68, calculated fair value R$166.75 (−62%), Quality Score 71/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of M1TT34 calculated?
We run Marriott International Inc. through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$166.75, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Marriott International Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$438.68. Our model-based fair value is R$166.75, about −62% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marriott International Inc. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$271.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (R$82.24 to R$271.70). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Marriott International Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
The market capitalisation of Marriott International Inc. is R$516B (≈ $98.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marriott International Inc. is 3.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
Earnings per share at Marriott International Inc. are R$12.37 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
The dividend yield of Marriott International Inc. is 0.6% (payout 21.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
The net margin of Marriott International Inc. is 9.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marriott International Inc. is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marriott International Inc. is 13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
The operating margin of Marriott International Inc. is 59.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
Revenue at Marriott International Inc. is growing +12.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34)?
Earnings per share at Marriott International Inc. are growing +1.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Marriott International Inc. (M1TT34) carry?
The net debt of Marriott International Inc. is $15.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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