Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Mapletree Logistics Trust S$0.91, price S$1.10, upside -17.3%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 0.9598 SGD – 1.61 SGD · fair‑value band 0.6600 SGD – 1.37 SGD · the 1.10 SGD price screens above the 0.9100 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Mapletree Logistics Trust, the first Asia Pacific-focused logistics REIT in Singapore, was listed on the SGX-ST Main Board on 28 July 2005. MLT's principal strategy is to invest in a diversified portfolio of income-producing logistics real estate and real estate-related assets.
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Mapletree Logistics Trust, the first Asia Pacific-focused logistics REIT in Singapore, was listed on the SGX-ST Main Board on 28 July 2005. MLT's principal strategy is to invest in a diversified portfolio of income-producing logistics real estate and real estate-related assets. As at 31 March 2026, it has a portfolio of 174 properties in Singapore, Australia, China, Hong Kong SAR, India, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea and Vietnam with assets under management of S13.1 billion dollar. MLT is managed by Mapletree Logistics Trust Management Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Mapletree Investments Pte Ltd. Mapletree Logistics Trust was incorporated in 2004 in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U) currently trades at 1.10 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.9100 SGD, 17.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of 0.9900 SGD per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the 1.10 SGD price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at 0.7900 SGD, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 0.6600 SGD (bear) to 1.37 SGD (bull), the price of 1.10 SGD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mapletree Logistics Trust reported revenue of 695M SGD in FY2026 versus 666M SGD in FY2022, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 277M SGD in FY2026, compounding −22.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 5.6B SGD (≈ $4.4B) · P/E ratio 22.0 · P/S ratio 8.77 · EPS (TTM) 0.0500 SGD · Dividend yield 6.7% · Net margin 39.8% · Return on equity 4.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 27% fair-value upside, at −17%, M44U screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 0.6600 SGDFair Value 0.9100 SGDBull 1.37 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−6.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−12.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−12.9% vs −3.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.76% → 73%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Singapore: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.5% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
Compare Mapletree Logistics Trust with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Industrial · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4.0% · Below median
Return on assets2.3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)39.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)73.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.77× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
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Is Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 0.9100 SGD versus a price of 1.10 SGD, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of M44U?
Our model-based fair value for Mapletree Logistics Trust is 0.9100 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 1.10 SGD.
What is the quality score of M44U?
Mapletree Logistics Trust has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 0.9100 SGD (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 0.6600 SGD, optimistic scenario 1.37 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mapletree Logistics Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 0.9100 SGD, about −17% upside versus a price of 1.10 SGD (overvalued). Cautious scenario 0.6600 SGD, optimistic scenario 1.37 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
Mapletree Logistics Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 710M SGD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Mapletree Logistics Trust pay a dividend?
Mapletree Logistics Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mapletree Logistics Trust would have to grow free cash flow by +6.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.4 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of M44U use?
Our models discount Mapletree Logistics Trust at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mapletree Logistics Trust that is +6.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mapletree Logistics Trust grew +4.4 % a year. The price currently implies +6.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mapletree Logistics Trust (+6.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.64 %: that much free cash flow Mapletree Logistics Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mapletree Logistics Trust it is 0.9100 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 1.10 SGD. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mapletree Logistics Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, M44U trades above its calculated fair value: price 1.10 SGD, fair value 0.9100 SGD, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of M44U?
No. The price is what the market pays today (1.10 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (0.9100 SGD). For Mapletree Logistics Trust the two are 0.1900 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mapletree Logistics Trust worth?
The market values Mapletree Logistics Trust at about 5.6B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 1.10 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 0.9100 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about M44U?
Our models span a range for Mapletree Logistics Trust: cautious scenario 0.6600 SGD, base 0.9100 SGD, optimistic 1.37 SGD per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 1.10 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of M44U?
Mapletree Logistics Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 0.9100 SGD is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 22.2 (reported for FY2026: 20.3). Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 0.8, P/S 7.9, EV/EBITDA 20.9.
What is the PEG ratio of M44U?
The PEG ratio of Mapletree Logistics Trust is 2.00 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mapletree Logistics Trust (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 4.0%, debt of 0.77 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is M44U from its 52-week high?
Mapletree Logistics Trust trades at 1.10 SGD, about 16% below its 52-week high of 1.31 SGD and 1% above the low of 1.09 SGD (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 0.9100 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mapletree Logistics Trust?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500,, Prologis, Inc, Extra Space Storage Inc, EastGroup Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mapletree Logistics Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 1.10 SGD, calculated fair value 0.9100 SGD (−17%), Quality Score 62/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of M44U calculated?
We run Mapletree Logistics Trust through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 0.9100 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Mapletree Logistics Trust itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 1.10 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 0.9100 SGD, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mapletree Logistics Trust right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (0.6600 SGD to 1.37 SGD) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Mapletree Logistics Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
The market capitalisation of Mapletree Logistics Trust is 5.6B SGD (≈ $4.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mapletree Logistics Trust is 8.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
Earnings per share at Mapletree Logistics Trust are 0.0500 SGD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
The dividend yield of Mapletree Logistics Trust is 6.7% (payout 162%, on adjusted earnings, reported 148%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
The net margin of Mapletree Logistics Trust is 39.8% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mapletree Logistics Trust is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mapletree Logistics Trust is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
The operating margin of Mapletree Logistics Trust is 73.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
Revenue at Mapletree Logistics Trust is growing +0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U)?
Earnings per share at Mapletree Logistics Trust are growing +2.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mapletree Logistics Trust (M44U) carry?
The net debt of Mapletree Logistics Trust is 5.2B SGD (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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